ForexMorningTrade System

[Deatil]

My reading of Mark's trading log which he publised for August doesn't show such a bad number of consecutive losses, as there was at least one win in the middle, and eventually he did have one more win than loss during the month of August to redeem him.

However I have tried simulating the results for February 2010, and I think that was also an unfavourable period. It is quite possible there were 6 losses in a row between 8th and 17th E&OE although the month did eventually come out positive. If anybody can correct me on this I would be pleased to amend my own spreadsheet for this.

Correct

Mark posted results shows a max of 4 losses in a row for August 2010.

Which were as follows.

Aug 2 Win 40

Aug 5 Loss 40

Aug 6 Loss 40

Aug 11 Loss 40

Aug 12 Loss 40

Aug 13 Win 40

Aug 16 Loss 40

Aug 17 Loss 40

Aug 18 Win 40

Aug 19 Win 40

So there is no public record of 9 losses in a row from Mark.

http://www.forexmorningtrade.com/trading-journal/

Also here is the problem I see with any back testing, While it may provided us with a guide as to the system performance .

How many times during the last 3 months have some of us here had very close reading and had no trades ,while other have had trades,

Some of these very same trades that others have had and some others have not, have gone on to be losses.

We all know its the data feed and spread. Meaning that your 6 in a row could be 4 or even 9+ or more.

Example today Dec 29 , once again a close call. How many got a Long trade, and how many did not?

Those who got a Long (1.5384-86)

Just took a little heat down to 1.5360, about 26 pips and this may make loss number 6. I again say may.

 

[wiseambitions]

My reading of Mark's trading log which he publised for August doesn't show such a bad number of consecutive losses, as there was at least one win in the middle, and eventually he did have one more win than loss during the month of August to redeem him . . .

Yes you're right, Mark did have a positive month, and there were actually 4 Profits.
But I did not say "consecutive losses, I said, "negative drawdowns."
Right now I have 5 negative drawdowns at -141 pips, if I get a Profit of +40 pips,
I would still have a negative drawdown at -101 pips.
I would need 3 Profits to get of this negative drawdown to go positive again.
35 pips * 3 Profits = 105 pips

Yes I understand what you mean now. The main disadvantage of our ratio at the moment is it takes more wins (of 35) to recover the losses (of 40 pips).

I cannot put my finger on any reason why FMT will cease to deliver good results in 2011 even if with conditions changing Mark readjusts the exit points. For example he reduced TP from 40 to 35 during this autumn, and presumably this is still under watch.

2010 looks like ending with about 700 more pips annual net gain than the 2009 figures.

So let's not get perturbed whenever we suffer 3 or 4 bad days and the forum is full of disgruntled amateurs saying the system is broken. We are in it for the marathon not the sprint.

 

[PipZombie]

Yes I understand what you mean now. The main disadvantage of our ratio at the moment is it takes more wins (of 35) to recover the losses (of 40 pips).

I cannot put my finger on any reason why FMT will cease to deliver good results in 2011 even if with conditions changing Mark readjusts the exit points. For example he reduced TP from 40 to 35 during this autumn, and presumably this is still under watch.

2010 looks like ending with about 700 more pips annual net gain than the 2009 figures.

So let's not get perturbed whenever we suffer 3 or 4 bad days and the forum is full of disgruntled amateurs saying the system is broken. We are in it for the marathon not the sprint.

 

[deserteagle]

We are in it for the marathon not the sprint.

Wise words

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Correct

Mark posted results shows a max of 4 losses in a row for August 2010.

Which were as follows.

Aug 2 Win 40

Aug 5 Loss 40

Aug 6 Loss 40

Aug 11 Loss 40

Aug 12 Loss 40

Aug 13 Win 40

Aug 16 Loss 40

Aug 17 Loss 40

Aug 18 Win 40

Aug 19 Win 40

So there is no public record of 9 losses in a row from Mark. . .

I did not say 9 losses in a row, I meant a negative drawdown period when you add up all the pips.

2-Aug 40
5-Aug 0
6-Aug -40
11-Aug -80
12-Aug -120
13-Aug -80
16-Aug -121
17-Aug -162
18-Aug -122
19-Aug -80
20-Aug -39
23-Aug 1
24-Aug 41
25-Aug 3
26-Aug -39
27-Aug 1
30-Aug 1
31-Aug 41

August 2010 ended positive.
These are real results not back testing . . .

 

[RedGuerrilla]

12-29-2010
FMT 4.1
Break Even
-1 pip


My stats since 11-08-2010: 7 No Trades, 9 Break Evens, 12 Losses, 10 Profits, Total: -142 pips
Pips include slippage, using standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP


My 6th day of a downturn of the total sum of pips. New low.
14-Dec was my all time high . . .

1-Dec 15
2-Dec 51
3-Dec 85
6-Dec 45
7-Dec 81
8-Dec 81
9-Dec 39
10-Dec 39
13-Dec 74
14-Dec 109
15-Dec 69
16-Dec 69
17-Dec 29
20-Dec 64
21-Dec 24
22-Dec -18
23-Dec -60
24-Dec -100
27-Dec -100
28-Dec -141
29-Dec -142



Tracking Demo Accounts for 12-29-2010:

Long/Break Even at non-dealing desk brokers:
IBFX, 1.53899, 1.53899, 0
FXDD, 1.53900, 1.53900, 0
Alpari(US), 1.53886, 1.53886, 0
PFG Best, 1.53895, 1.53895, 0
FXCM, 1.53893, 1.53893, 0
MB Trading, 1.53891, 1.53890, -1.0
FOREX.com, 1.53900, 1.53888, -1.2

Long/Break Even at a 'Live' dealing desk broker:
FXSolutions, 1.5390, 1.5389, -1.0


The Automated Trading Championship 2010 Is Over - 1st Place US Cash Prize: $40,000!
http://championship.mql5.com/2010/en/news/66

 

[wiseambitions]

12-29-2010

The Automated Trading Championship 2010 Is Over - 1st Place US Cash Prize: $77,103!
http://championship.mql5.com/2010/en/news/66

Amazing that you could make so much money with only 40% winning trades and a PF of 1.15. Careful risk management and compounding of growth must have played an important part.
The runner up said "If you sit long on the river bank, you can see the corpse of your enemy float by". However he still came second.

And within a couple more days we'll be able to add up how many pips FMT could have given for the full year. I have already calculated as carefully as I can, that with 5% risk per trade, 35TP, 40SL you might have been able to multiply your starting balance by 6 in less than 200 trades January 1 to December 28, including the series of losses which we have just experienced.

 

[Deatil]

12-28-2010
FMT 4.1
Loss
-41 pips


My stats since 11-08-2010: 7 No Trades, 8 Break Evens, 12 Losses, 10 Profits, Total: -141 pips
Pips include slippage


My 5th negative drawdown day.
From August 6 to 20, Mark had 9 negative drawdown days in a row.
His all time low was -162 pips on August 17, 2010.
There were no trades on August 9 and 10.


Tracking Demo Accounts for 12-28-2010:

Loss on non-dealing desk brokers:
IBFX, 1.54739, 1.54346, -39.3
FXDD, 1.54730, 1.54330, -40.0
Alpari(US), 1.54730, 1.54328, -40.2
PFG Best, 1.54738, 1.54332, -40.6
FXCM, 1.54733, 1.54327, -40.6
FOREX.com, 1.54737, 1.54328, -40.9
MB Trading, 1.54729, 1.54312, -41.7

Loss on dealing desk brokers:
FXSolutions, 1.5474, 1.5433, -41.0

Since FMT makes only one traded per day , your statement above which I underline the words you used reads" Mark had 9 negative drawdown days in a row."is incorrect.

The only possible way for this to occur would be in fact to have 9 losses in a row. Again this never occurred and neither where there any "9 negative drawdown days in a row" as per your statement.Not in the public record.

How could you have "9 negative drawdown days in a row" on a system that places 1 trade per day.

Even if you had a draw down on the equity balance and recouped just one loss with a win it would break the sequence, which it did, at least in the public record.

You and some others depending on your broker feed and data, may have 6+ losses in a row, which I mention already today with a close call long, and we all have seen over the last 3 months some every close trades some took and some did not , base on the EA and not a manual entry.

 

[hammy66]

Since FMT makes only one traded per day , your statement above which I underline the words you used reads" Mark had 9 negative drawdown days in a row."is incorrect.

The only possible way for this to occur would be in fact to have 9 losses in a row. Again this never occurred and neither where there any "9 negative drawdown days in a row" as per your statement.Not in the public record.

How could you have "9 negative drawdown days in a row" on a system that places 1 trade per day.

Even if you had a draw down on the equity balance and recouped just one loss with a win it would break the sequence, which it did, at least in the public record.

You and some others depending on your broker feed and data, may have 6+ losses in a row, which I mention already today with a close call long, and we all have seen over the last 3 months some every close trades some took and some did not , base on the EA and not a manual entry.

Deatil, you missed the point ??..

Look:
6-Aug -40
11-Aug -80
12-Aug -120
13-Aug -80
16-Aug -121
17-Aug -162
18-Aug -122
19-Aug -80
20-Aug -39

count them, 9 days in a row with NET losing profit for the month..get it ?..:smart:

cheers !..:cheesy:

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Since FMT makes only one traded per day , your statement above which I underline the words you used reads" Mark had 9 negative drawdown days in a row."is incorrect.

The only possible way for this to occur would be in fact to have 9 losses in a row. Again this never occurred and neither where there any "9 negative drawdown days in a row" as per your statement.Not in the public record.

How could you have "9 negative drawdown days in a row" on a system that places 1 trade per day.

Even if you had a draw down on the equity balance and recouped just one loss with a win it would break the sequence, which it did, at least in the public record. . .

What I meant by drawdown, was that the sum of the total pips were negative, but I was using it in a wrong way, sorry. Thanks Deatil . . .

drawdown - a continuous decline in an investment or fund, usually expressed as a percentage between its highest and lowest levels
from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/drawdown?db=dictionary

A drawdown is the reduction of one's capital after a series of losing trades. This is normally calculated by getting the difference between a relative peak in equity capital minus a relative trough. Traders normally note this down as a percentage of their trading account.
from http://www.babypips.com/school/drawdown-and-maximum-drawdown.html

 

[GumRai]

Deatil, you missed the point ??..

Look:
6-Aug -40
11-Aug -80
12-Aug -120
13-Aug -80
16-Aug -121
17-Aug -162
18-Aug -122
19-Aug -80
20-Aug -39

count them, 9 days in a row with NET losing profit for the month..get it ?..:smart:

cheers !..:cheesy:

Using the same way of looking at it, since the 19th August there have been approximately 70 days in a row with net winning profit. More if you include the no trade days

 

[Deatil]

Deatil, you missed the point ??..

Look:
6-Aug -40
11-Aug -80
12-Aug -120
13-Aug -80
16-Aug -121
17-Aug -162
18-Aug -122
19-Aug -80
20-Aug -39

count them, 9 days in a row with NET losing profit for the month..get it ?..:smart:

cheers !..:cheesy:

I understand the point he is trying to make, but under accounting rules you can not omit the re-capture of losses. Otherwise when a system has a recovery you would not be allowed to use that data,

That;s like say after these 6 losses in a row , if you come back to zero (0) you would only be allowed to count the recovery wins after you break even, so yes I understand it very well:smart:

But still its almost a mute point since there are so may of use that would shows wins when some show losses. Which was the case with some of the wins between those losses.

Also if FMT does have a true 70% win rate then we can expect 8 losses max to be in a row, and if they were to happen over the next 2 trades . Under those view about Net losses you would have at that point.

The 9 which are shown, and omitting the wins in between which are not being taken into account, Plus 2 more to complete the max 8 losses in a row for a 70% win rate system, which then bring your total to 11 days in a row with NET losing profit for the month from the current 9.

Totally unrealistic accounting because , if that were the case since FMT makes 1 day per day, and its target is smaller then its profit .

When to recovery rate kicks in , you would still be sitting in net losses for about 5 or more additional days just to reach the water mark high of 162 before the decline.

 

[PipZombie]

I understand the point he is trying to make, but under accounting rules you can not omit the re-capture of losses. Otherwise when a system has a recovery you would not be allowed to use that data,

That;s like say after these 6 losses in a row , if you come back to zero (0) you would only be allowed to count the recovery wins after you break even, so yes I understand it very well:smart:

But still its almost a mute point since there are so may of use that would shows wins when some show losses. Which was the case with some of the wins between those losses.

Also if FMT does have a true 70% win rate then we can expect 8 losses max to be in a row, and if they were to happen over the next 2 trades . Under those view about Net losses you would have at that point.

The 9 which are shown, and omitting the wins in between which are not being taken into account, Plus 2 more to complete the max 8 losses in a row for a 70% win rate system, which then bring your total to 11 days in a row with NET losing profit for the month from the current 9.

Totally unrealistic accounting because , if that were the case since FMT makes 1 day per day, and its target is smaller then its profit .

When to recovery rate kicks in , you would still be sitting in net losses for about 5 or more additional days just to reach the water mark high of 162 before the decline.

I wish I had you guys for a math tudor in high school. It would have made math class more plesant.

 

[buddhi]

wish there were a way to net two wins per week. any suggestions? has anyone tried a third indicator, maybe a moving average filter?

the difficulty is when price immediately moves in the wrong direction and avoids breakeven; we need something to mitigate that. would a second, shorter-term mom indicator help out?

 

[wiseambitions]

wish there were a way to net two wins per week. any suggestions? has anyone tried a third indicator, maybe a moving average filter?

the difficulty is when price immediately moves in the wrong direction and avoids breakeven; we need something to mitigate that. would a second, shorter-term mom indicator help out?

I am aware of 3 extra filters, 1 is related to FMT (Turbo), and that's the Average Daily Range, but seeing I don't trade with an EA with my present broker, and seeing as I didn't buy the add-on I don't know the settings. I have seen comments in the last few weeks where followers have said the filter has stopped them entering into a losing trade

The second is a system of using the 40MA in 15m chart and watching for the line to rise or fall or stay level between about 4.00GMT and 6.30GMT. I think it would be worth doing more work on using this trend indicator as a means of confirming the FMT signal

The third is one I sometimes use for myself but have scarcely read anyone else having interest in it, and that is Heiken Ashi. This is a modified candlestick which tries to smooth out some of the short term movements and indicate a trend direction until it turns again. It happens to be available as a custom indicator in Metatrader and other good charting setups

I think the only way to guarantee 2 or more net wins a week would be to accept a very small target profit, say 10 to 15 pips, because it is rare that a burst in the market does not achieve at least that much movement in the direction of the FMT signal. But you might find it's a slower way to success than the recommended settings (35TP) or variations of ones own which are close to that.

 

[PipZombie]

wish there were a way to net two wins per week. any suggestions? has anyone tried a third indicator, maybe a moving average filter?

the difficulty is when price immediately moves in the wrong direction and avoids breakeven; we need something to mitigate that. would a second, shorter-term mom indicator help out?

I am not sure what you are speaking of. Can you explain further. You mention "when price immediately moves in the wrong direction and avoids beakeven" is not clear to me. If you are in a trade and price moves IN the intended direction and then misses breakeven THEN moves in the wrong direction, missing breakeven makes more sense. Just trying to understand. I gather that you mean all conditions are right for the FMT to take a trade but price is already in the process of reversing its current trend when we get the signal and we never get price movement in the direction that FMT has predicted. Thanks in advance for your clarification.

 

[wiseambitions]

I am not sure what you are speaking of. Can you explain further. You mention "when price immediately moves in the wrong direction and avoids beakeven" is not clear to me. If you are in a trade and price moves IN the intended direction and then misses breakeven THEN moves in the wrong direction, missing breakeven makes more sense. Just trying to understand. I gather that you mean all conditions are right for the FMT to take a trade but price is already in the process of reversing its current trend when we get the signal and we never get price movement in the direction that FMT has predicted. Thanks in advance for your clarification.

I took it to mean that there wasn't even 20 pips rise in the market after entry, so B/E wasn't triggered and the next exit was 40SL. And therefore he was asking whether there was a way of filtering out trades which were unlikely to produce 20 pips before running out of inertia

 

[jonesrp]

I haven`t traded since 17/12 ..2 losses at the end of the week and I thought I would sit back and wait, maybe sit out the first 2 weeks in Jan as well. All you need is 4 net profit trades per month, I don`t think you can get 2 net profit trades per week particularly bearing in mind the no trade days.
Last day at work tomorrow and then on holiday for the next 2 weeks.Good luck everyone in 2011.

 

[PipZombie]

I am aware of 3 extra filters, 1 is related to FMT (Turbo), and that's the Average Daily Range, but seeing I don't trade with an EA with my present broker, and seeing as I didn't buy the add-on I don't know the settings. I have seen comments in the last few weeks where followers have said the filter has stopped them entering into a losing trade

The second is a system of using the 40MA in 15m chart and watching for the line to rise or fall or stay level between about 4.00GMT and 6.30GMT. I think it would be worth doing more work on using this trend indicator as a means of confirming the FMT signal

The third is one I sometimes use for myself but have scarcely read anyone else having interest in it, and that is Heiken Ashi. This is a modified candlestick which tries to smooth out some of the short term movements and indicate a trend direction until it turns again. It happens to be available as a custom indicator in Metatrader and other good charting setups

I think the only way to guarantee 2 or more net wins a week would be to accept a very small target profit, say 10 to 15 pips, because it is rare that a burst in the market does not achieve at least that much movement in the direction of the FMT signal. But you might find it's a slower way to success than the recommended settings (35TP) or variations of ones own which are close to that.

Adding additional filters will keep you out of some losing trades but it will also keep you out of some winning trades as well. I think this is a difficult task of adding a filter. I like the bias created with the momentum and CCI indicators since it is pretty simple. Where I think we are vulnerable is when we get a pre 6:30 am move right before our entry that is already moving in our intended direction we are late to the trade already by 10-30 pips, not leaving us much chance to safely reach our goal. This is where the debate of when to start the FMT EA begins(i.e. 6:00, 6:15, 6:30). ADR will filter out an overall move for the day prior to our trade but the difficulty will be to find the sweet spot or ADR setting to take or not take a trade since the value of ADR is ever changing each Day, week, month. the GBPUSD can have a ADR of 75 one week and 200 the next. I am sure this is a difficult thing to test and determine.

All in all, I am a fan of some type of filter for those large premarket moves which lowers are chance of success. I think that this is why the breakeven feature was added. Again this is a slippery slope since we already have a successfull EA with a great track record. I think the best setting in the etire EA is your "lot size". Accept what the EA will give us and know the drawdown potential and keep using the EA as it was designed. We always strive for a higher win rate so that we can increase our lot size, at least that is my observation. Trading 1-2% max per trade with this EA with its past track record with compounding you will make a lot of money. Increasing the lot size larger than this you will sometimes be in the position to have to add to your account during those drawdown periods to allow your account to recover from the drawdown as you will not be able to keep trading at the original lot size without fear of margin call.

 

[PipZombie]

I haven`t traded since 17/12 ..2 losses at the end of the week and I thought I would sit back and wait, maybe sit out the first 2 weeks in Jan as well. All you need is 4 net profit trades per month, I don`t think you can get 2 net profit trades per week particularly bearing in mind the no trade days.
Last day at work tomorrow and then on holiday for the next 2 weeks.Good luck everyone in 2011.