Forex "Pin" Bars

Re:

TheTick said:
YM is the mini-dow contract. It is $5 a tick. It is heavier traded than the standard ($10) and maxi ($25) contracts and is where most traders place their trades.

Interestingly, on my feed it is not quite a pin bar as the body isn't quite in the top third.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification.

To be honest, if there was a market for two flies racing up O'Connell Street & my TA told me it was worth entering based on S/R pivot, fibs & a pin-bar, then I'd do it....
 
VinceStanzione said:
Thanks for the clarification.

To be honest, if there was a market for two flies racing up O'Connell Street & my TA told me it was worth entering based on S/R pivot, fibs & a pin-bar, then I'd do it....
Click to expand...

Agree completely, just that they will all show pretty much the same thing, but the margin requirements are higher which means the majority of day traders only trade the mini contract. Whilst I'm happy to trade anything that moves, if I have a choice between two almost identical markets I prefer the one with greater volume as there's less chance of stop-hunting.
 
TheTick said:
Agree completely, just that they will all show pretty much the same thing, but the margin requirements are higher which means the majority of day traders only trade the mini contract. Whilst I'm happy to trade anything that moves, if I have a choice between two almost identical markets I prefer the one with greater volume as there's less chance of stop-hunting.
Click to expand...

Fair point.

Although, by definition when you enter the realm of futures contracts trading, initial margin & variation margin due/released when contracts are marked-to-market at the end of each trading session become key consideration points.

Seeing as we're on the topic of margins (& a bit off-thread, I know but)

Has anyone been on paddypowertrader.com since it launched?

Their margin requirements for all trades, regardless of market I believe to be grossly uncompetitive; I know trading is a zero-sum gain between buyer/seller...but these boys have everyone "behind the 8-ball" before the trades even break-out.

They recommend T2W on their site; so maybe some-one from Paddy Power might come on here to defend themselves???
 
Heres a fairly long old pin.

Im going to wait until the daily closes and look at it on Monday myself because if it stays around where it is the risk is about the same on 4hr and daily, and TD says longer timeframes are generally more reliable. Or I might put half on the 4hr and half on the daily on Monday if it still looks good. Do not really want to be long of $'s though, really !
 

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Hi all.

Glad to see some activity here. Been quiet for a while

Daily Pin forming on Gold. I went long on gold on the 13h00 hourly Pin at $967.00.
Got stopped out a bit later as I moved my stop up too quickly so left it for a while. Price retraced a bit later so got back in at about the same level. Hope this isn't considered chasing the market. I figured I would still have been in the trade anyway if I had been more patient.

I took this trade on the hourly Pin. Now that the Daily Pin is forming quite nicely I am more confident.

There were not too many supporting factors except the Pin on recent S/R but Gold is moving up strongly and i was looking for a good entry point on a pullback

Any comments on this trade? Would you guys have taken this on?
 

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Ljr said:
Hi all.

Glad to see some activity here. Been quiet for a while

Daily Pin forming on Gold. I went long on gold on the 13h00 hourly Pin at $967.00.
Got stopped out a bit later as I moved my stop up too quickly so left it for a while. Price retraced a bit later so got back in at about the same level. Hope this isn't considered chasing the market. I figured I would still have been in the trade anyway if I had been more patient.

I took this trade on the hourly Pin. Now that the Daily Pin is forming quite nicely I am more confident.

There were not too many supporting factors except the Pin on recent S/R but Gold is moving up strongly and i was looking for a good entry point on a pullback

Any comments on this trade? Would you guys have taken this on?
Click to expand...


Hi Ljr,

I'm happy to give you my thoughts on this trade.

** To anyone who PM'ed me looking for similiar analysis/back-testing - I'm sorry I had to turn ye down; Cheltenham starts tomorrow & I won't be available to due my trading (ie other types of betting to be done this week!!!). However, I've 20mins now, so I'm willing to help here. Again, apologies to you guys.**

"Daily Pin forming on Gold"

(1) TA was done on the daily TF => CORRECT.

I haven't checked the validity of the PB using the spreadsheet check tool, but the nose length & general traits cf the left eye (visually) look ok.

I can only assume your S/R pivot line was also drawn on the Daily (it looks like the hourly chart you've posted).

The nose this peeking through this line ever so slightly; however, as a trader should think of these pivots as "areas" rather than "definitive lines" then this is OK.

However, I like to see fib confluence with S/R, regardless of TF, as this strenghens my confidence in the trade.

"I went long on gold on the 13h00 hourly Pin at $967.00."

Went long on the hourly, having seen a PB on the daily (and presumably) done your TA on the daily.

So far, so good!

Here's where I believe your trade falls down.

"Got stopped out a bit later as I moved my stop up too quickly so left it for a while. Price retraced a bit later so got back in at about the same level. Hope this isn't considered chasing the market"

Nailed by the "retracement bus" ! Remember, as traders we must have complete confidence in our high-prob edge. If we are confident in it, we must give these trades time to break out!

Having definitie rules for trade management helps ie moving the stop based on the MAs, moving it bar-by-bar, etc. Employing discretionary emotional urges to move the stop, when we should have complete faith in our edge is flawed.

If you believe in the entry signal, always give the trade sufficient space to whipsaw back & forth until the trade breaks-out.

"I figured I would still have been in the trade anyway if I had been more patient."

Your next comment merely re-inforces this.

So, I think it was your physcological approach to the trade which initially let you down.

In addition "There were not too many supporting factors except the Pin on recent S/R.."

What's the point in trading when we don't have all supporting factors in our favour.

I spent at least two years trying to force trades with this type of thinking.

Earning spread-trading capital is hard-enough - giving it cheaply back to the spread-bookies is madness.

So to summarise:-

- if you've faith in the trade entry, never be to eager to move the stop; it simply
doesn't make sense.

- if you are struggling with stop movement, try to develop a mechanical system for
moving it (towards B/E, and above!)

- Try, try, & try again to become more emotionally detached from each trade.
I've said elsewhere on T_D's original thread - I wouldn't even begin to contemplate
the success-rate (or otherwise) of any system until I'd completed at least 30 trades.

- Always, always, ALWAYS!! only ever enter when all TA is in your favour.

Hope I don't sound too hrash - but I can only call it as I see it.

I'll be stopping by periodically during the week - post a reply with your thoughts & I'll respond when I can.

Finally.....Here's to Harchibald winning the Champion Hurdle tomorrow!!

Happy Trading,
VS
 
VS thanks very much for your reply, especially the detail you provide. You really do provide some valuable responses which I am sure are helping all that read them.

I think the key element you have touched on is I was not confident in the trade to start with. The reason for this is mainly inexperience. I am also finding it difficult to trade when an instrument is moving up or down sharply as when looking at the daily charts I just can't seem to see the Support & Resistance as easily and as a result am less confident.

For this particular trade the hourly chart was easier to read and realising the general trend was up I was glad to see a pullback and a Pin bar forming at what looked like recent resistance.

Again thanks for your comments. They are extremely useful and I will certainly be taking them onboard for future trades.

Leon
 
Ljr said:
VS thanks very much for your reply, especially the detail you provide. You really do provide some valuable responses which I am sure are helping all that read them.

I think the key element you have touched on is I was not confident in the trade to start with. The reason for this is mainly inexperience. I am also finding it difficult to trade when an instrument is moving up or down sharply as when looking at the daily charts I just can't seem to see the Support & Resistance as easily and as a result am less confident.

For this particular trade the hourly chart was easier to read and realising the general trend was up I was glad to see a pullback and a Pin bar forming at what looked like recent resistance.

Again thanks for your comments. They are extremely useful and I will certainly be taking them onboard for future trades.

Leon
Click to expand...

Happy to help.

The key feature from your reply to my analysis: I strongly believe you need to become 100% comfortable with trading by trading solely on paper.

You're struggling too much with the lower TF & your emotions.

Try paper-trading solely on the daily TF when 100% of the TA indicators are in your favour.

Regardless of how long it takes for these 'high-edge set-ups' to occur, I suggest doing 30 of these type of trades without risking your cash.

You'll be amazed by the results.

If this fails, at least you haven't lost your cash.

Take a break from trading if this occurs; then com-back & test another system.

If you persevere, you'll crack this!

In the meantime, if you're bored & have £5 to spare, try this link:-

Select A Cheltenham Stable 2008

There's more to life than trading!!

P.S. Due to the current storms in the UK (which hit my part of Ireland badly at 7pm GMT last night), the ground has gone against Harchibald.

Have a few bob on Sublimity instead.

Roll on Cheltenham tomorrow.

Cheers Leon,
VS
 
Did not know you were a fellow horse man VS, I say `fellow` I hardly ever have a bet anymore apart from Grand National. I did used to like seeing if I could spot a good horse, just a shame about all the other ones I `spotted` though !! ;) Good luck on Sublimity.

From my old database.

select func_horse_form('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10');
0.5

call speed_rating('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10', 100);
100.87

call pace_rating('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10', 100);
102.39

call lookup_horse('Sublimity');
'2007-12-15'
'Sublimity, having his first outing since winning the Champion last March, looked as if this run would do him good. But it will have to as, although some observers reckoned his rider may have overdone the waiting tactics, he had his chance going to the last. He was ridden much the same in the Champion and there has to be a train of thought that says he should have done better than he did. We will obviously know more after the Irish Champion Hurdle – his next intended outing.'
'CHELTENHAM'
'2m1f'
'Good'
runners:8
wintimesecs:239.33
'Sublimity (FR)'
position:4
lengthsbeaten:18.1250
finishtime:242.96
decimalodds:4.500000
'John G Carr'
'P A Carberry'
'11-8 t'
age:7

Tell me what race its in and ill do the other runners if that sort of thing is any use to you.
 
1Pipped said:
Did not know you were a fellow horse man VS, I say `fellow` I hardly ever have a bet anymore apart from Grand National. I did used to like seeing if I could spot a good horse, just a shame about all the other ones I `spotted` though !! ;) Good luck on Sublimity.

From my old database.

select func_horse_form('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10');
0.5

call speed_rating('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10', 100);
100.87

call pace_rating('Sublimity', '2000-00-00', '2008-10-10', 100);
102.39

call lookup_horse('Sublimity');
'2007-12-15'
'Sublimity, having his first outing since winning the Champion last March, looked as if this run would do him good. But it will have to as, although some observers reckoned his rider may have overdone the waiting tactics, he had his chance going to the last. He was ridden much the same in the Champion and there has to be a train of thought that says he should have done better than he did. We will obviously know more after the Irish Champion Hurdle – his next intended outing.'
'CHELTENHAM'
'2m1f'
'Good'
runners:8
wintimesecs:239.33
'Sublimity (FR)'
position:4
lengthsbeaten:18.1250
finishtime:242.96
decimalodds:4.500000
'John G Carr'
'P A Carberry'
'11-8 t'
age:7

Tell me what race its in and ill do the other runners if that sort of thing is any use to you.
Click to expand...

Just checked the prices in Ireland - Sublimity is 9/2 for the Champion Hurdle; with the favourite (Sizing Europe) - a horse trained 5 miles away from where I'm from - at 2/1.

Beware of Sublimity - his owners are involved with a Dublin pub (Beaumont House near Clontarf) & they managed to bankrupt the local betting shop last year.

Ebazyian is a 20/1 shot for Willie Mullins; this nag won the first race of the Festival last year (Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices) - the price is huge & will hopefully (!) run a big race.

...Jaysus, I can't wait!!

I don't care if pin-bars of S/R fib confluence that yield a 1,000,000 pips appears 10 tens - Cheltenham week is the best of the year.
 
gbp/yen pin bar on hourly,any comments??gone short on my demo
 

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gbp/usd hourly pin bar,strong resistance at around 202.40 might not help though
 

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