aliasentric
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Forex knowledge and live trading journal
- Thread starter aliasentric
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aliasentric
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aliasentric
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GBPAUD and GBPNZD trades, targeting around 1300 pips between the 2…
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
aliasentric
Active member
- Messages
- 197
- Likes
- 9
Update....
7 months later...
Was humbled by the market again...
But I haven't given up. I went to demo for a while, and just recently went back to live trading live and full-time.
I wanted to apologize again to any whom I might have offended with my know-it-all attitude. I won't promise any further posting of videos or trades, as I find it too distracting from my trading efforts.
What have I learned so far?
The biggest factor in trading, which I believe was pointed out to me in this thread months ago, is a good R:R. If you aren't making way more money on your winners than losers, you'll quickly blow your account.
I now look for trades with at least a 5 or 10 to 1 reward/risk factor. A good example is the GBPJPY. Good entry yesterday at a 13:1 R:R.
How do I find these types of trades? I look for consolidation. Ideally, at least 8 hours of consolidation. Or at least 3 or 4 hours if is a pause after a strong trend. The longer the price stays in a range, the stronger the breakout will be...
I pick my entries/targets on the H1 time frame. I also keep an eye on the H4 and D1 charts to determine overall direction. But the most important factors are 1) what is the risk? and 2) is there enough room for a good R:R? So, the next resistance level needs to be situated far enough away from your entry and SL to be a good R:R.
With this strategy it is very easy to gain 50% or more on your account with a single trade. Example: if you have $1000, and you risk $50 (5%) and you go for a 1:10 R:R then you could increase your account by 50% with 1 trade. However, I don't use percentage to determine risk, but rather a dollar amount that I find acceptable. A dollar amount that will allow me to sustain several losses, and still be able to get back into profits with a single subsequent trade using the same risk amount.
When do I enter? If I see consolidation, and a nice bounce off the bottom resistance (for long) or a nice rejection of top of consolidation (for short), I enter. But ideally, I want to trade the break out. That way the direction is confirmed, and I don't have to worry if it is going to make it out of consolidation or not. The tighter the range, the better. If the range is too wide, I may not take the trade, since the SL is at the opposite side of the consolidation after the breakout, and I don't like extremely wide SLs since it means the price has to travel that much further to obtain my desired R:R.
So, trading this way works well if you want to know right away (within a few hour most of the time), if you are right or not. You also get into profits right way most of the time. Plus, if you are wrong, usually, you can just enter in the opposite direction for a profitable trade to make up the loss and then some.
I watch 9 pairs or so, my favorites are the GBP and EUR crossed with AUD, NZD, and JPY...
I have the 8 and 21 EMA on my H1 charts. I also use an Mt4 indicator that shows me these moving averages for the Daily time frame, so I can see where the price is in relation to the daily moving averages while looking on the H1 chart.
That's all I have on my charts, so they are pretty clean. Looking at too many things confuses me, so I try to keep it simple.
And one more thing, I've determined not to hold positions over the weekend. Those gaps will kill you sooner or later if you get the direction wrong. I probably won't enter any new trades on Friday, and will close all of my trades by close on Friday.
Well, that's it in a nutshell. I wish everyone the best in your trading. Send any questions if you have any. Or feel free to shoot holes through my strategy, as I'm always willing to listen as I'm always trying to improve...
Good trading...
7 months later...
Was humbled by the market again...
But I haven't given up. I went to demo for a while, and just recently went back to live trading live and full-time.
I wanted to apologize again to any whom I might have offended with my know-it-all attitude. I won't promise any further posting of videos or trades, as I find it too distracting from my trading efforts.
What have I learned so far?
The biggest factor in trading, which I believe was pointed out to me in this thread months ago, is a good R:R. If you aren't making way more money on your winners than losers, you'll quickly blow your account.
I now look for trades with at least a 5 or 10 to 1 reward/risk factor. A good example is the GBPJPY. Good entry yesterday at a 13:1 R:R.
How do I find these types of trades? I look for consolidation. Ideally, at least 8 hours of consolidation. Or at least 3 or 4 hours if is a pause after a strong trend. The longer the price stays in a range, the stronger the breakout will be...
I pick my entries/targets on the H1 time frame. I also keep an eye on the H4 and D1 charts to determine overall direction. But the most important factors are 1) what is the risk? and 2) is there enough room for a good R:R? So, the next resistance level needs to be situated far enough away from your entry and SL to be a good R:R.
With this strategy it is very easy to gain 50% or more on your account with a single trade. Example: if you have $1000, and you risk $50 (5%) and you go for a 1:10 R:R then you could increase your account by 50% with 1 trade. However, I don't use percentage to determine risk, but rather a dollar amount that I find acceptable. A dollar amount that will allow me to sustain several losses, and still be able to get back into profits with a single subsequent trade using the same risk amount.
When do I enter? If I see consolidation, and a nice bounce off the bottom resistance (for long) or a nice rejection of top of consolidation (for short), I enter. But ideally, I want to trade the break out. That way the direction is confirmed, and I don't have to worry if it is going to make it out of consolidation or not. The tighter the range, the better. If the range is too wide, I may not take the trade, since the SL is at the opposite side of the consolidation after the breakout, and I don't like extremely wide SLs since it means the price has to travel that much further to obtain my desired R:R.
So, trading this way works well if you want to know right away (within a few hour most of the time), if you are right or not. You also get into profits right way most of the time. Plus, if you are wrong, usually, you can just enter in the opposite direction for a profitable trade to make up the loss and then some.
I watch 9 pairs or so, my favorites are the GBP and EUR crossed with AUD, NZD, and JPY...
I have the 8 and 21 EMA on my H1 charts. I also use an Mt4 indicator that shows me these moving averages for the Daily time frame, so I can see where the price is in relation to the daily moving averages while looking on the H1 chart.
That's all I have on my charts, so they are pretty clean. Looking at too many things confuses me, so I try to keep it simple.
And one more thing, I've determined not to hold positions over the weekend. Those gaps will kill you sooner or later if you get the direction wrong. I probably won't enter any new trades on Friday, and will close all of my trades by close on Friday.
Well, that's it in a nutshell. I wish everyone the best in your trading. Send any questions if you have any. Or feel free to shoot holes through my strategy, as I'm always willing to listen as I'm always trying to improve...
Good trading...
aliasentric
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Posting a chart of one of my latest trades as an example of my strategy. Sitting on a 10:1 R:R, and hoping to get 13:1 out of it.
Saw the price bouncing off of the bottom of consolidation yesterday and entered long. You can also see the price confirm a rejection of the range after it broke out.
Saw the price bouncing off of the bottom of consolidation yesterday and entered long. You can also see the price confirm a rejection of the range after it broke out.
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aliasentric
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This is my ideal trade. If I can get an average of 1:12 R:R on all of my trades, that means I only have to win 1 out of 12 to break even.
If I risk 50 dollars on each trade with this R:R strategy, and only win 25% of the time, I still come out ahead with $1500 dollars after 12 trades. Not bad. The trick is to be disciplined enough to only take the trades that look good
If I risk 50 dollars on each trade with this R:R strategy, and only win 25% of the time, I still come out ahead with $1500 dollars after 12 trades. Not bad. The trick is to be disciplined enough to only take the trades that look good
aliasentric
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As I continue to learn and adjust, I'm finding I prefer the longer time frames better, as they give me a clearer picture of the trend, as well as offer higher potential gains, and less trading...
Here's an example of my latest trade. I actually went in on the H4 time frame as I saw an engulfing bar rejection off the 8/21 EMAs, but when I saw the pin bar form on the daily chart, decided to ride out the trade on the daily, and see how much I can get out of it. Especially since there's really not much resistance on the upside for at least 300-400 pips.
I'm considering adding to my position if I see another bullish signal on the H4 time frame... But that will probably mean there'll need to be a pull back. We'll see what happens...
Here's an example of my latest trade. I actually went in on the H4 time frame as I saw an engulfing bar rejection off the 8/21 EMAs, but when I saw the pin bar form on the daily chart, decided to ride out the trade on the daily, and see how much I can get out of it. Especially since there's really not much resistance on the upside for at least 300-400 pips.
I'm considering adding to my position if I see another bullish signal on the H4 time frame... But that will probably mean there'll need to be a pull back. We'll see what happens...
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aliasentric
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aliasentric
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Here's a long term trade idea...
Entered long on GBPJPY today with a profit target of 3300 pips.
Here are the reasons for my trade:
1) Looking on the weekly chart, last week was a nice strong break out from many weeks of consolidation
2) Today on the daily chart is the 4th day of an inside bar range, and we see a nice pin bar rejection of the bottom of that range
3) The sky is the limit on this trade, since there really isn't any noticeable resistance on the daily chart, and the weekly chart shows the next supply area 3300+ pips up
So, we'll see how it works out, and if I have the patience to wait it out. I'm thinking we may need a couple months to see this trade to the finish, if I"m right...
Risk:Reward is 1:15 with the SL about half way between the daily 8 and 21 ema.
Weekly chart showing the breakout and the daily chart showing the inside bar...
Entered long on GBPJPY today with a profit target of 3300 pips.
Here are the reasons for my trade:
1) Looking on the weekly chart, last week was a nice strong break out from many weeks of consolidation
2) Today on the daily chart is the 4th day of an inside bar range, and we see a nice pin bar rejection of the bottom of that range
3) The sky is the limit on this trade, since there really isn't any noticeable resistance on the daily chart, and the weekly chart shows the next supply area 3300+ pips up
So, we'll see how it works out, and if I have the patience to wait it out. I'm thinking we may need a couple months to see this trade to the finish, if I"m right...
Risk:Reward is 1:15 with the SL about half way between the daily 8 and 21 ema.
Weekly chart showing the breakout and the daily chart showing the inside bar...
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aliasentric
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Can't help myself, but watch this trade closely. Looking on the 4 hour chart, we need a strong upward move/close above 178.122, as the price is kind of consolidating again.
Will look also for the daily close to hold above that too. Then, next thing to look for is a close above 180.389, then should be off to the races (hopefully) moving upward from there...
Will look also for the daily close to hold above that too. Then, next thing to look for is a close above 180.389, then should be off to the races (hopefully) moving upward from there...
aliasentric
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Another trade idea...
The EURJPY also looks really good on the weekly chart, breaking out of a flag, or triangle, whichever way you look at it...
Risk/Reward is 1:5, but if it breaks above the last high, the sky is the limit on this one too...
Just entered at 139.458 with SL at 138.355
The EURJPY also looks really good on the weekly chart, breaking out of a flag, or triangle, whichever way you look at it...
Risk/Reward is 1:5, but if it breaks above the last high, the sky is the limit on this one too...
Just entered at 139.458 with SL at 138.355
