Forex Analysis and Forecast by J. Halprid

[GFSignals]

January 19, 2010

On Monday, which appeared to be the first day of the new trading week (pretty strange fact, I’d like to admit) the situation on the market was quite active. The most market participants (Forex Signals providers included) were influenced by the positive news from Europe and by the tendency to buy high-yield currencies, which brought USD down a little bit. At this rate it could be admitted, that EUR/USD rose up to the level of 1.4385, where it finished the trading day. GBP/USD also went up and managed to close at 1.6345, which is pretty good for the British currency. But some Forex signals developers and traders have tendency to save USD, waiting for its going high in the nearest future.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010, doesn’t seem to be very news-rich day. There isn’t really much important data to be released. The only information, which is awaited by almost all Forex signals users and market providers is the USA Net Long-term TIC Flows and maybe the retail price index and consumer price index, coming from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Taking into consideration all that, the Forex signals system developers can expect the EUR/USD to fall down to the level of about 1.4350 and GBP/USD is, vice versa, likely to continue growing and to reach the trading point of 1.6400.

 

[GFSignals]

January 20, 2010

On Tuesday the situation on the Forex market was developing pretty fast and was quite active, as it has been predicted before. Mainly the market participants were to bring EUR down, because during the first part of the Forex trading day the tendency for selling European currency was quite strong. At the same time the British pound and the American Dollar were to rise up a little bit, but GBP/USD didn’t remain calm – at first the Forex pair managed to reach the trading day’s maximum of 1.6456, which was a surprise for some investors.

But just after the American session began, the USD started to suppress its rivals very actively. GBP/USD was brought down almost to open point (the trading day was finished at 1.6362), which killed all the possible tendencies of British pound’s rising. EUR/USD continued falling down and by the end of the trading day the important level of 1.4300 was reached and even broken through. The Forex trading day’s minimum was 1.4251.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010 is expected to be very interesting day for all market participants, from brokers to Forex signals users. According to the predictions USD gonna continue suppressing its Forex rivals and bring them down even before the opening of the American session. The amount of news to be released is also pretty big, which makes the situation even more interesting. For example, jobless claims change and Bank of England minutes will be released in the United Kingdom. In the USA the producer price index, housing starts and building permits will be published during the second part of the trading day.

At this rate EUR/USD gonna fall down and even break through the very important psychological level of 1.4200. But it may not finish the trading day under that point. GBP/USD is also likely to go downwards and reach the level of about 1.6250.

 

[GFSignals]

January 21, 2010

Just according to the Forex predictions, the United States Dollar almost “slaughtered” his rivals on Wednesday. Both EUR and GBP were brought down very fast. At the same time the stock indices all over the world fell down, which partially was the reason for Forex market participants getting rid of high-yield currencies. At this rate EUR/USD fell down to 1.4106, but the trading day’s minimum was 1.4079, which means that the pair lost more than 200 pips in just a day! GBP/USD managed to reach the point of 1.6243, but by the end of the Forex market day to recover to 1.6294.

Those events may be the beginning of new Dollar era. It seems that the American currency is likely to continue going upwards and suppressing the European trading Forex rivals. The European economics is experiencing not good times, which can keep EUR low for some period of time. The Great Britain is almost in the same situation.

On Thursday, the power of USD isn’t likely to disappear. For example, GBP/USD is likely to show pretty big fall down and go to the point of 1.6150. EUR/USD is also to continue Forex going down and may manage to reach 1.4000 and even break through that important level. What concerns Forex trading news, it can be admitted, that the market participants and Forex signals developers will be waiting for PMI releases from Euro-zone and the package of economic news from the United States.

 

[GFSignals]

January 22, 2010

Just according to the predictions given yesterday, Thursday appeared to be the day of the United States Dollar. The American currency suppressed its European rivals pretty good. These events drove some market participants (including traders and Forex Signals providers) crazy. Due to that the Forex market was pretty active that day.

The only currency to outperform the buck was the Japanese Yen. The currency of the country of Rising sun was to bring USD down a little bit, but this had no impact on the positions of Dollar on other markets and behaviour of Forex signals users & other active market participants. USD/JPY was to fall down to the Forex day’s minimum of 90.10. At the same time EUR/USD continued going down and reached the trading day’s minimum of 1.4028. But by the end of Forex market day the price was 1.4083. GBP/USD was also rolling down and the lowest point of the trading day was 1.6124, but the GBP was to recover a bit and the day was finished at 1.6194.

On Friday, January 22, 2010, the European rivals of the American currency are going to make a slight recovery, which is highly awaited by the Forex signals developers and investors, who invested into high-yield currencies. The point is, that there won’t be much Forex news released this day. Only the information retail sales in Great Britain and industrial new orders in Euro-zone will be released.

Due to that Forex signals providers and active traders might expect, that EUR/USD may go upwards a little bit and recover to the point of 1.4165. GBP/USD is also likely to rise up and reach the level of about 1.6285.

 

[GFSignals]

January 25, 2010

Next week the situation on the Forex market is expected to be more active, than even during the previous one. There will be much news released all over the world, which may turn the situation on the market upside down. Taking into consideration the last-week’s news releases from Europe, which turned out to be extremely negative and brought the European currency down, it could be admitted that this week might also be a Forex disaster for EUR.

Talking about Forex news, it’s vital to say some words about the introduction of the Bank of Japan target rate & monthly report, the publishing of news on Japanese import & export volume, jobless rate and industrial production.

In the USA there is also pretty big amount of economically important information to be published throughout the trading week: annualized GDP change, new & existing home sales, consumer confidence index. And the main data from the United States to be awaited by all market participants and Forex signals users is, of course, the FOMC decision on interesting rate. The majority of experts predict it to remain at the same level, but some negative news from Europe can really change the situation.

What concerns Europe, the news on import price index, IFO business climate, consumer price index and unemployment rate will be released in Germany, which is the largest economics on the whole continent. At the same time the GDP change will be also introduced in the United Kingdom, which can be quite unpredictable in connection with the latest news from the market.

At this rate it’s possible to say, that on Monday EUR/USD is likely to rise a little bit and maybe to reach the point of 1.4200. GBP/USD might go up as well and end the trading day at about 1.6180.

 

[GFSignals]

January 26, 2010

The beginning of the trading week was pretty active, just as it had been predicted. At the same time some Forex market participants were waiting for good situation to open a position. Due to that some currency pairs, like EUR/USD didn’t experience great changes in comparison with the open point. During the first part of the trading day EUR/USD had been rising up, but then it just fell down almost to open point and finished the Forex day at 1.4148.

Partially that was caused by the news economic from Europe, especially from Athens where the ask for public bonds was 4 times as big as bid! At this rate lots of market participants and Forex signals developers decided to invest into high-yield currencies. But by the end of the day EUR was brought down by the expectations of negative news from Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to be published on Tuesday.

At the same time the British currency was going up, which was the good news for British market Forex participants. The expectations of GDP of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to grow pretty much were an excellent support for the British pound. So, GBP/USD was to reach the point of 1.6259 and to finish the Forex trading day at 1.6245.

On Tuesday, January 26, 2010, there are some very important news to be released almost in all parts of the world. For example, GDP change will be announced in Britain. Import price index and info about IFO Business climate are to be published in Germany and consumer confidence index & house price index gonna be published in the United States. So, EUR/USD is likely to fall down again and go to the point of about 1.4050 under the pressure of the news. GBP/USD might also roll down and reach 1.6150.

 

[GFSignals]

January 27, 2010

Tuesday, January 26, 2010 turned out to be quite news-rich and active trading day. Lots of market participants decided to get rid of high-yield currencies even during the Asian session, because the Central Bank of China allowed some banks to increase their exchange reserve and made the other to stop giving credits. At this rate many Forex people decided to invest into USD, which made the American currency grow.

At the same time the news from Europe were quite negative. For example the change of UK GDP in the latest quarter was only +0.1% instead of +0.4% predicted. That made the British pound fall down by about 150 pips. Due to that GBP/USD finished the trading. day at the level of 1.6149. EUR/USD was also to roll down pretty fast, although the IFO’s data on business climate was better than it had been predicted. So, EUR/USD went down to 1.4054.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 can also become the day of USD. The American currency is likely to be supported by the news releases from the United States on new home sales and DOE US inventories. But the main news, which will be awaited by all market participants, is of course, FOMC decision about the interest rate. The rate is predicted to remain without changes, but if it’s changed, the market will be turned inside out in a moment. So, GBP/USD is likely to continue falling and reach the point of 1.6080. And EUR/USD might also roll down and even break through the important psychological point of 1.4000.

 

[GFSignals]

January 28, 2010

On Wednesday the American currency managed to bring EUR down for about 70 pips, but the British pound wasn’t influenced that tendency. That was mainly the result of the news releases from the USA, which made the market participants to buy USD very actively and at the same time get rid of European and the British currencies.

The new home sales in the USA reduced very much. That fact made the investors convert big part of their funds into USD. At the same time according to the predictions the US FRS interest rate remained just at the same trading level and the FRS heads’ speeches were quite positive, which had a good impact on the American currency. Due to that EUR/USD broke through the important psychological level of 1.4000 and even went lower.

GBP/USD was rising at first, because the claims of Bank of England representative on the topic of the British economics were quite positive. But during the American session GBP/USD was brought almost to the open point. But by the end of the trading day GBP managed to suppress USD a little bit and the trading day was finished at about 1.6176.

On Thursday, January 28, 2010 the situation on the Forex market is likely to remain quite intensive. The trading may appear to be pretty unpredictable, because the majority of market participants will be waiting for the news releases from Germany (unemployment rate) and the USA (durable goods orders and initial jobless claims). At this rate it can be admitted, that EUR/USD might continue going down to the point of about 1.3950. GBP/USD is likely to go up a little bit and to be trading about 1.6200.

 

[GFSignals]

January 29, 2010

Just according to the predictions the situation on the Forex market on Thursday turned out to be very intensive. The market participants including traders and Forex signals developers, were very careful and were waiting for the news. And that was the right decision. All the Forex rivals of USD were losing their positions without any serious attempts of recovery. Even the British pound was to fall down because of Standard & Poor’s claiming that the British Bank system can’t be any more considered the most stable in the world. These were the signals for active selling GBP. Due to that GBP/USD fell down to 1.6118.

At the same time the negative Forex news on German unemployment rate, which appeared to be even higher than predicted – 8.2%, brought down the united European currency. At first EUR/USD was even trying to set at the day’s maximum of 1.4047, but then it rolled down and finished the trading day at the level of 1.3960. But the day’s minimum of 1.3936 was set during the Asian session. Due to that many of Forex traders and signals providers decided to dell EUR during the first part of the day.

On Friday, January 29, 2010, there are some interesting and important Forex news to be published, which will be awaited by almost all Forex signals providers all over the world. The Nat ‘wide house prices index will be released in the UK. The info on Euro-zone unemployment and USA GDP change may also have influence on the situation on the market. At this rate it’s necessary to admit, that EUR/USD is likely to continue going downwards and may break through the level of 1.3900. GBP/USD might fall to the point of about 1.6050.

 

[GFSignals]

February 1, 2010

Last week was marked by the domination of the American currency and active fall down of its European Forex rivals. The British pound, Euro and even the Swiss franc couldn’t resist the suppression of USD, which was mostly caused by the positive news from the United States and negative news from Europe. Almost all market participants (traders, investors, Forex signals providers) were waiting for the situation to change, but it didn’t seem to. Due to that EUR/USD was just falling down throughout all the week without any serious attempts to go up and finished the trading week at 1.3960. At the same time GBP/USD wasn’t falling very actively, but on Friday it managed to reach the point of 1.5981.

On Monday, February 01, 2010, the rivals of USD seem to recover a bit. Investors and Forex signals providers are expecting the positive economic news to come from Europe: the data on German, British and Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing, and the British M4 money supply. At the same time the information on PCE Core and ISM Manufacturing will be released in the United States of America, which can also have influence on the situation on the market and make USD to grow up a bit.

At this rate, EUR/USD is expected to make a little bit of Forex recovery and to rise to the point of 1.3900. GBP/USD is also likely to go up and possibly reach the level of about 1.6000. But the situation can change in a moment because of news releases, which are very important at the moment and awaited by Forex signals developers, traders, brokers and investors.

 

[GFSignals]

February 2, 2010

On Monday, just according to the previous predictions, the rivals of the American currency managed not only to save their positions, but even suppress bucks a little bit. Lots of the market participants were waiting for that and traders, Forex signals providers and some big investors decided to invest their funds into high-yield currencies on Monday. On the other hand, the positive news from the European continent were also to bring EUR, GBP and CHF up.

For example, the positive news on Euro-zone PMI Manufacture made EUR/USD go up and break through the point of 1.3900. The Forex trading day was finished at the level of 1.3933, which was a pretty nice recovery for the European currency. At the same time GBP/USD was at first brought down to the day’s minimum of 1.5849, but after the release of positive data on PMI manufacturing and M4 money supply, the British pound began rising up. At this rate by the end of the trading day GBP/USD was moving around 1.5962 and lots of signals Forex were showing the possibility of future GBP recovery.

On Tuesday, February 02, 2010, there is not very much of Forex news to be released. Some investors and Forex signals providers will be waiting for the announcement of the data on Euro-zone Producer price index, German retail sales and, of course USA pending home sales. The RBA cash target announcement in Australia doesn’t seem to have great impact on the situation on the market. In accordance with that, it could be admitted, that EUR/USD can go down again and return to the point of 1.3850. GBP/USD is likely to fall as well and might be trading around the point of 1.5900.