Forex Analysis and Forecast by J. Halprid

[GFSignals]

November 10, 2009

On Monday, November 9, 2009, the situation on the market wasn’t very good for USD. One of the reasons was that USA FRS remained the interest rate at the same level of 0.25% and data on Unemployment Rate in the United States was quite negative. Due to that trading market participants were not interested in strong USD.:clap::clap::clap:

At the same time in Germany the data on Industrial Production showed positive dynamics (2.7% growth instead of 1% predicted). But the oil prices went up again and set at the level of $80 for a barrel. Due to that GBP/USD was to reach the 3-month’s maximum of 1.6842, USD/CHF was trading about 1.0080 and EUR/USD went up to 1.4990.

On Tuesday, November 10, 2009, the most trading market participants are to pay attention to the following news: German info on Consumer Price Index and ZEW Survey and Total Trade Balance of Great Britain. Due to the predictions and expectations, USD may recover and suppress its rivals pretty good. EUR/USD is likely to return to the point of about 1.4900, GBP/USD may fall to 1.6630, USD/CHF may go down to 1.000 and USD/JPY is expected to be trading between 89.50 – 90.50.:whistling

 

[GFSignals]

November 11, 2009

On Tuesday USD was to suppress EUR and GBP, but then the rivals of bucks recovered a bit and even finished the trading day almost at the positions of the day’s beginning. For example GBP/USD fell down to 1.6600, but by the end of the day was trading at about 1.6730. That was connected with the comments of the Fitch agency, which told that Britain can lose its AAA rating and not very positive news on British Total Trade Balance. EUR/USD was also to go down at first, but the trading day was finished at 1.4980. The reason for that was negative dynamics showed by data on ZEW Survey (51.1 instead of 55 predicted).

On Wednesday, November 11, 2009, the rivals of the USD are likely to fall down a bit under the pressure of the American currency. US FRS shouldn’t change the interest rates in order to support the development of economical activity in the country. But that might not influence the trading behaviour of investors, prices and situation on the market very much.
:idea::idea:
In the USA the stock exchanges will be closed in connection with Veterans Day. So, the activity in currency trading isn’t expected to be big, because the stocks influence the American currency’s USD price great at the moment. Due to that EUR/USD is likely to fall down to at least 1.4900, GBP may go to the point of 1.6650 and USD/CHF might continue going to the level of 1.0000.smart:

 

[GFSignals]

November 12, 2009

In spite of low trading activity of investors, traders and Forex signals strategy developers on the market connected with the celebration of Veterans Day in the United States, the situation on the market was changing very actively. Japanese Yen managed to suppress USD greatly (USD/JPY fell down to 89.26) mainly because of the positive news from China and Japan. For example Chinese industrial production has grew for 16,1%(!) in comparison with the same period of the last year. That was to push dollar down not only against JPY, but even EUR and CHF – EUR/USD reached 1.5049 and USD/CHF – 1.0033.:smart:

The Bank of England published the report on inflation and then M. King gave his comment on it. The comments turned out to be not very positive like the inflation level itself, so in combination with the negative news on British Claimant Count Rate, GBP began to lose its positions on the market. GBP/USD went down to 1.6534. At the same time EUR/USD returned to the level of 1.4952 by the end of the trading day. USD/JPY was trading around 89.80.:|

On Thursday, November 12, 2009, the main attention of trading market participants will be drawn to the data on Eurozone industrial production, initial and continuing jobless claims in the USA and info from DOE US Inventories. The American data on jobless claims might turn out to be quite negative according to the predictions, which can bring USD down a little bit. But that won’t make the American currency fall against its main rivals – the British pound and Euro. EUR/USD is expected to fall down to 1.4890 and GBP/USD – to 1.6450.:|

 

[GFSignals]

November 13, 2009

On Thursday, just as it has been predicted in our yesterday’s Forex analysis, USD went up against its main rivals on the currency exchange market. That was connected with the trading news having come from Euro-zone - industrial production grew only for 0.3% (0.5% growth was predicted), and from the USA – the number of initial and continuing jobless claims fell down. And the additional Forex support to USD at the market was provided by fall down of oil prices – on Thursday oil became cheaper for $3 and reached the price of $77 per a barrel. Due to that EUR/USD finished the trading day at 1.4844, GBP/USD went down to 1.6580, USD/CHF rose up to the level of 1.0160 and USD/JPY was trading about 90.40.:clap::clap:

On Friday, November 13, 2009, quite a big amount of trading news is expected to be published in Europe. The main attention of traders and Forex signals investors should be paid to the data on GDP of Germany and the whole Euro-zone. Besides that, the trading on Forex market can be influenced by the information coming from the United States, such as news on trade balance and University of Michigan confidence. In connection with that news it can be expected, that EUR/USD might do a bit of correction and rise up to 1.4900, GBP/USD is likely to go upwards to the point of about 1.6700. At the same time USD/CHF may move to 1.0100 and USD/JPY can fall below 90.00.:smart::|

 

[GFSignals]

November 16, 2009

In spite of the correction observed at the end of the last week, EUR/USD and GBP/USD didn’t manage to set below the levels of 1.49 and 1.66 agreeably. But that trading week the fall down of the currency pairs mentioned above is quite possible because of different news coming from the United States. For example on Monday the data on Empire Manufacturing index and advance retail sales will be released (according to the prediction is to grow for 0.9%). On Thursday all the attention will be drawn to the news about US industrial production, Net Long-term TIC Flows and producer price index. On Wednesday the most important trading information from the USA will be about consumer price index and housing starts. And on Thursday the investors will be expecting the data on initial jobless claims in the US.

In Europe the most important information, expected by Forex signals developers and professional traders, is the news on Euro-zone consumer price index, retail sales in Great Britain and German producer price index. The Euro-Zone Trade Balance will be released on November 17, 2009 and the BoE’s decisions – on November 18, 2009.

Due to that, EUR/USD is expected to reach the level of 1.4800 and by the end of the week be trading right there. GBP/USD may rise to about 1.6800 during the first part of the trading week, but be its end it can also fall down to 1.6400. At the same time USD/JPY is expected to be trading between 91.00 and 88.00.:clap::clap:

 

[GFSignals]

November 17, 2009

The new Forex trading week has begun quite actively. USD was a little bit suppressed by its main rivals – GBP and EUR because of the quotes’ rising on European and Asian stock exchanges and British news releases: retail sales grew up for 1.4% (0.9% growth predicted), but Empire Manufacturing index fell down to 23.51 instead of predicted 30.0. So, GBP/USD went up to the point of 1.6800 and broke through it yesterday, having set 3-month’s maximum – 1.6876. EUR/USD at first reached the level of 1.5015, but then USD managed to recover a bit and the pair fell down and finished the Forex trading day at 1.4965.:whistling

On Tuesday, November 17, 2009 the main attention of Forex trading market participants is to be drawn to the data on Net Long-term TIC Flows in the USA, which is predicted to be about $30 milliard. And also the Forex trading market will be influenced by the information on British Consumer price index and retail price index. The important for USD piece of news will be released in the USA: Producer Price Index and changes in Industrial Production.:cheesy:

Due to that today EUR/USD is like to fall down a bit and to be trading around 1.4900, but the fall to the point of 1.4850 can be expected as well. GBP/USD might rise up a little and even reach the level of 1.6900. USD/CHF might go down to 1.0050 and USD/JPY will be trading between 89.50-88.50.sly:

 

[GFSignals]

November 18, 2009

On Tuesday, as it has been predicted in yesterday’s Forex analysis USD managed to push Euro down. That was the result of fall stock indices and prices for raw materials. And the low values of US industrial production also made investors and Forex signals providers buy USD quite actively. At the same time, the main news to support USD growth was data on Net Long-term TIC Flows in the USA, which showed the international capital flows of $133.5 milliard in the United States.

Due to that EUR/USD was to fall down for 190 pips and reach the minimum of 1.4807. But by the end of the Forex trading day Euro managed to suppress USD a bit and rise to the level of 1.4862. At the same time GBP/USD fell down a bit, but failed all attempts to go down or up more, having ended the trading day at 1.6802.

As you see, the world economics tries to recover, and this recovery can last for quite a long time. But the main fact is, that it takes place now. Investors and Forex signals system developers begin to buy USD instead of high-risky currencies. Due to that the recovery of USD will continue, but not very fast one. The situation in world economics will improve step by step.

On Wednesday, November 18, 2009 the main news to be taken into consideration by Forex signals developers:innocent:, traders and investors is the release of consumer price index and housing starts in the USA. And the Bank’s of England Release Minutes of Interest Rate Decision can influence the situation on the market and behaviour of Forex signals providers:innocent: as well.

Due to that EUR/USD can do a bit of correction and go up to 1.4920, GBP/USD might rise up to 1.6900 in case of the British news on interest rates are positive. At the same time USD/JPY is expected to be trading between 89.50-88.50.

 

[GFSignals]

November 19, 2009

Yesterday, on Wednesday, USD was suppressed by Euro a little bit, but managed to push GBP down on the Forex market. The main reason for this was the rise of oil price to $80 for a barrel and the historical maximum of the gold price - $1152.40 for a troy ounce. Due to that, the stock indices also went up.

At the same time in spite of all that, EUR/USD didn’t manage to break through the important psychological Forex level of 1.5000, having stopped just at 1.4990. And even James Bullard’s claims, that US FRS will leave the interest rate at small level for quite a long time (till 2012), didn’t help EUR to push bucks down more. It’s considered, that USD may be under the pressure of its main Forex rivals because of low US FRS interest rates, but there are some other factors, that can make the American currency grow quite quickly.

It’s also necessary to admit, that the housing starts in the USD fell down for 10.6% in comparison with the previous month –and turned out to be 529,000 units (600,000 predicted). That news were also to have a negative influence on the price of USD on the Forex market.

Frankly speaking, there isn’t much important news expected this Forex trading week. On Thursday, November 19, 2009, the only important news to be released are M4 Money supply and retail sales in Great Britain and the data on initial jobless claims in the United States. Taking into consideration the previous Forex predictions, it’s logically to say, that EUR/USD can fall down to the level of about 1.4850, GBP/USD might continue the moving to 1.6650.:clap::clap:

 

[GFSignals]

November 20, 2009

The situation on the Forex market on Thursday, November 19, 2009, was quite interesting and developed very fast. Even traders and investors were quite active because of quite an amount of different news and releases. As it had been predicted before, USD suppressed its European rivals and continued long-term recovery. At the same time the British pound kept on going down in little steps, being under the pressure of the news – the retails sales of Great Britain grew only for 0.4% (at least 0.5% growth predicted). Due to that GBP/USD managed to fall on the Forex market to 1.6604.

EUR/USD was falling quite quickly at first, having reached the point of 1.4842. But by the end of the Forex trading day EUR was to do some recovery and to go up to the level of 1.4927. That was the result of the news release from the United States – weekly initial jobless claims turned out to be just the same as in the previous period (505,000) and FRS-Philadelphia manufacturing index was bigger than predicted (16.7 against the prediction of 12.2).

On Friday, November 20, 2009, there won’t be much news to be released. The only data to be paid attention to is the release of German producer price index, which can have the influence on the Forex market. Due to that the continuation of USD Forex recovery is expected. The American currency isn’t likely rise up quickly, but can suppress its rivals a bit. EUR/USD might fall to the point of 1.4850, GBP/USD may make another step down to 1.6570 and USD/JPY is likely to be trading near 88.30.:smart:

 

[GFSignals]

November 23, 2009

That trading week doesn’t seem to be rich in economic news. But the influence of the situation on stock markets and speeches of leading economic specialists.

As it was obvious last trading week, the European politics and economist expect USD going up and American economics recovering. Due to that EUR/USD can’t break through the point of 1.5000, because the investors don’t want to risk too much. But taking into consideration J. Bullard’s words (USA FRS won’t increase interest rates much before 2012) another fall down of USD can be expected.

At the same time, on Wednesday Barney Frank suggested implementing central clearing for operations with currency derivatives, which caused lots of protests of bankers claiming such system to further mew system risk in the financial and Forex system.

Speaking about Forex trading news, it should be admitted, that the data on GDP of the 3rd quarter, home sales, durable goods orders and Minutes of November 4 FOMC Meeting will be released in the USA. At the same time the data on GDP of the 3rd quarter will be released in Germany, Great Britain and European Union as well. And many counties of EU will release PMI, which is to show the complete situation in the EU economics and can turn the situation on the trading market Forex upside down.

According to the Forex analysis, it’s possible to say, that EUR/USD can rise at the beginning of the week and even reach the point of 1.5050, but then the reversal is expected. USD might recover its positions and even push Euro down to 1.4700 or even lower. The British pound can suppress USD and go up to 1.6800 in case of positive data release in Europe (the support level for GBP/USD is situated at 1.6450). USD/CHF may be trading around 1.0100 level and USD/JPY is likely to break through 88.00.

 

[GFSignals]

November 24, 2009

Just like the previous trading week that one started with investors’ and Forex signals developers’ striving to risk. The PMI of Germany was a bit larger than predicted – 52.0 instead of 51.6 predicted, and Euro zone PMI turned out to be just a little bit smaller – 51.0 instead of prediction of 51.2. In combination with the trading investors’ and Forex signals providers’ desire to buy more risky and high-profitable currencies, that was to drive EUR/USD to the max point of 1.4998 and GBP/USD - 1.6647. It’s also necessary to admit, that oil and gold prices rose up as well as stock indices.
:|:|
On Tuesday, November 24, 2009, quite important news are to be published, which should be taken into consideration by Forex Signals givers. The data on GDP in 3rd quarter will be released in Germany and USA. The data of IFO on Business Climate will come from Germany and news on Richmond Fed Manufacture Index are to be published in The United States. According to that news it can be said, that EUR/USD might fall down to 1.4850. At this rate GBP/USD may go down to the level of about 1.6450.:innocent:

 

[GFSignals]

November 25, 2009

On Tuesday the Forex trading turned out to be extremely active, as it had been predicted before. That was the result of big amount of news released and the fast changes in the investors’ behaviour. In the beginning of the trading day the Asian stock indices fell down, which made USD suppress its rival quite fast. For example, EUR/USD fell down to the minimum of 1.4887, GBP/USD reached the point 1.6518, USD/CHF was about 1.0151, but only USD/JPY continues falling down and got to 88.54.

But then the situation on the Forex market completely changed. The release of IFO data on business climate index in Germany showed 93.9, which was nice support to the rivals of USD. The American currency began falling down, especially against Euro and Swiss franc. EUR/USD was to return to the level of 1.4964, GBP/USD finished Forex trading day at 1.6580, USD/CHF returned to 1.0075 and USD/JPY was trading between 88.35 – 88.65.

The trading on Wednesday, November 25, 2009 isn’t expected to be very active before the celebration of Thanksgiving Day:clap::clap:, when all financial markets will be closed. The main Forex currency pairs are expected to be trading in some rages without great breakouts. But some fast Forex price changes may occur because of low trading volume.:clap::clap:

The main Forex news to be taken into consideration is, of course, the release of info on GDP in Britain and data on jobless claims in the USA. Due to that, EUR/USD is likely to rise to about 1.5050, but not to remain there and then get down a bit. GBP/USD might go up to 1.6700 and even break through that point.

 

[GFSignals]

November 26, 2009

On Wednesday the news were to influence the trading situation on the market quite much. The data by FOMC, telling that USD falling down is a natural tendency, brought the American currency down. Especially buck was suppressed by Euro – EUR/USD broke through 1.5000 level and even went up to 1.5143 – the 15-month’s maximum.:clap::clap:

Of course, the information, that the number of initial jobless claims in the USA reduced, also pushed USD down and allowed Euro to continue Forex growing. At the same time the trading on stock exchanges was quite calm, not showing great changes in indices. So, the investors and Forex traders just went crazy about buying high-profitable and risky currencies, which just killed USD.

But the only Forex rival of the American currency, which didn’t suppress it greatly, was The British pound. The situation in British economy turned out to be as bad as trading perspectives of USD recovery: British GDP reduced for 0.3% in comparison with the previous quarter. Due to that GBP/USD rose only a little bit and reached the point of 1.6744. At the same time USD/JPY fell down and reached 10-month Forex minimum of 87.19.
:smart::smart::smart:
On Thursday, November 26, 2009, there won’t be any trading in USA and Canada because of Thanksgiving Day celebration. So, there won’t be big news released as well. The main Forex info to be taken into consideration is to come from Europe: Euro-zone M3 money supply and German consumer price index.

According to the Forex analysis and trading predictions it could be said, that EUR/USD is likely to fall to about 1.5020, GBP/USD might go down to 1.6500 and USD/JPY may be trading between 87.00 and 88.20.

 

[GFSignals]

November 27, 2009

On Thursday, while USA and Canada were celebrating Thanksgiving Day, the most important trading news came from Dubai (UAE). The creditors were asked to postpone the payment of Dubai World fund to them for 6 months. At first that news was to bring down the British stock index FTSE, which influenced the British pound as well.

Due to that GBP/USD quickly fell to the Forex level of 1.6500. After that EUR/USD went down to the point of 1.4958 and was trading around there. USD/CHF was also to reach the minimum of 1.0069. That was the result of the Forex hearsay, that Swiss National Bank probably did the intervention. At the same time the British pound was to fall down against USD to the minimum of 1.6465, but then to return back and finish the trading day at 1.6500.:clap::clap:

On Friday, November 27, 2009, the trading won’t be also quite active like on Thursday, because the American market participants are on holidays in connection with Thanksgiving Day. Due to that the recovery of USD id quite possible. And that recovery can appear to be extremely fast and fatal for investors, having bought high-risky currencies.

At this rate EUR/USD might fall down to the point of 1.4830, GBP/USD is likely to break through the level of 1.6300 and even go down more. By the end of the trading day the situation can become more stable, but the pressure on USD Forex rivals will remain quite strong.

 

[GFSignals]

November 30, 2009

Due to the latest Forex trading news and events it can be admitted, that the recovery of USD is quite possible. In spite of speeches of different Central Banks’ heads, the investors’ desire to buy high-risky currency reduces because of quite unstable situation in the world economics. At the moment the American government is interested in weak USD, but it won’t last long. And European economics can be ruined by strong Forex positions of Euro against the American currency. At this rate it could be supposed that some actions can be done to stop the rise of EUR in order to save the economy of Euro-zone.

Speaking about news, it should be said, that there will be quite an amount of news released this week, and they will be extremely important as they may change the situation on the trading market quickly. For example, the data Euro-zone GDB, unemployment rate, retail sales and PMI is to come out this week. And ECB is to carry out the decision on interest rates, which are predicted to remain on the same level. In the USA there will be also some important news released – Fed’s Beige book publication, unemployment rate and ADP employment change. But the main information will come out on Friday, December, 4 – the news on change in USA nonfarm payrolls. All that stuff can make USD Forex rise extremely quickly as well as bring it down in a moment.:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

On Monday, November 30, 2009, the trading can turn out to be not very active, because there won’t be much news released on the first day of the Forex trading week. So, it can be said that EUR/USD might go up to 1.5100, but the fall down a little bit. GBP/USD is likely to rise to about 1.6600, but after that USD can also push its rival down.

 

[gamma]

Hi,
Just to let you know that myself and I am sure others, find your daily posts very good
I thought I would just let you know, your efforts every morning are appreciatd.

 

[Claudia123]

Might be missing something - but there's quite a lot of news out today and I just banked 30 points shorting cable. But agree his posts are good and well worth a read.

 

[GFSignals]

December 1, 2009

On the first day of the trading week the trading itself turned out to be not very active. The behaviour of Forex signals developers and investors was somehow sleepy. There was not a lot of news and due to that the trend moving was quite slow, as it has been predicted before. But the release of Euro-zone consumer price index showed positive dynamics and was a factor to make Euro and the British pound rise against USD a little bit – in a moment all Forex signals investors became alert and started trading.

At this rate EUR/USD went up to the point of 1.5083 quite quickly. But the USD was to recover and push the price down for about 100 pips to 1.4972. But the trading day was finished a bit above 1.5000. It’s necessary to admit that many traders and Forex signals developers predicted the rise up of the European currency, but Euro remained “silent”. At the same time GBP/USD was just almost to repeat the story of EUR/USD – at first it rose up, but then fell down and was trading around 1.6447.:clap::clap:

On Tuesday, December 01, 2009 the investors and Forex signals providers will be expecting the important news both from Euro-zone and the USA:whistling. In Europe the info on unemployment rate will be released, Germany announces the data on retail sales and unemployment rate, the indices of house prices by Nat’wide and PMI are to come from Great Britain.

So, EUR/USD is likely to go down a little bit, then to rise up to about 1.5050 and finally to go a down by the end of the trading day. GBP/USD may break through the level of 1.6500, but it shouldn’t set there and might fall down to 1.6450 – that may be caused by negative news from the United States, which will certainly influence the behaviour of Forex signals providers.

 

[GFSignals]

December 2, 2009

On Tuesday the situation on the Forex market wasn’t good for USD. The American currency lost its positions to Euro and the British pound, having gone down a little bit against those trading rivals.:whistling The claim of Dubai World to postpone payment on the loan was considered to be just a local crisis, which had no big influence on Forex trading all over the world.

At this rate, EUR/USD was at first to go down to 1.4970, but then recovered and rose to 1.5117. At the same time GBP/USD was going up pretty fast – the point of 1.6646 was reached by the end of the trading day, which was the result of positive market Forex news released in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and :clover:Northern Ireland:clover:.

On Wednesday, December 02, 2009 the most important Forex news, which can have impact on the situation on trading market, will be released in The United States: data on oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book publication and, of course, info on ADP Employment Change. And another news to be taken into consideration is Euro-zone PPI, which can also turn out to have quite important influence on the Forex market and especially the European currency.

Due to that, it can be admitted, that EUR/USD is likely to do a correction and possibly roll down to 1.4950, which can turn out to be another step in USD Forex recovery. At the same time GBP/USD might also show a fall down to the level of about 1.6470.:clap:

 

[GFSignals]

December 3, 2009

On Wednesday the releases of different Forex news from all parts of the world didn’t influence very much on the trading situation on the market. Euro-zone PPI in spite of all predictions grew up for 0.2%, but that wasn’t a fact to have big impact on the behavior of trading market Forex participants. Even news from the United States didn’t change the situation.whistling

So, at first EUR/USD was trying to set at the level of 1.5109, but after having failed to do that, during the European Forex session the currency pair went down the market to the point of 1.5028, which turned out to be the minimum of the trading day. GBP/USD, vice versa, started the trading day with fall down to the day’s minimum of 1.6549, but then it managed not only to recover but even to grow very fast and reach the maximum point of 1.6694. The trading Forex day for GBP/USD was finished at 1.6630.

The main news to be admitted on Thursday, December 03, 2009, are the data on changes in Euro-zone retail sales volume & GDP, and of course, the ECB release of interest rate & Mr. Trichet speech on monthly news conference. According to the Forex prediction the interest rate:smart: is likely to remain at the same market level of 1.00%.

Due to that the Forex trading:whistling on the market can be quite active and unpredictable. EUR/USD is likely to rise up to the level of about 1.5140. GBP/USD may also go up and set at about 1.6750, which means the continuation of the British pound suppressing the bucks.