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[riki143]

USD/JPY: "SHOOTING STAR" LED TO DECLINE
13:46 02.03.2018

The last "Shooting Star" led to the current decline. The main intraday target is the lower "Window". If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment for an upward correction.

The price has been declining since a bearish "Harami" formed on the Moving Averages. There's no any reversal pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "SHOOTING STAR" LED TO DECLINE
12:25 05.03.2018

The price has been declining since a "Shooting Star" pattern was formed on the Moving Averages. However, there's a bullish "Harami", so we could have a local upward correction in the short term. Anyway, bears will probably try to test the lower "Window" afterwards.

The price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, we've got an "Engulfing" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the closest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "SHOOTING STAR" LED TO DECLINE
12:35 06.03.2018

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the 21 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area in the short term.

The last "Shooting Star" led to the current decline. Also, there's a pullback from the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline in the coming hours.

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "HARAMI" PATTERN
12:30 06.03.2018

We've got a bearish "Harami" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a new local high. Meanwhile, if we have another reversal pattern, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction.

There're bearish patterns such a "High Wave" and a "Shooting Star", which both have been confirmed. In this case, the Moving Averages is likely going to act as support anytime soon.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: 21 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:57 07.03.2018

The 21 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is declining. The main bearish target is the lower "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction afterwards.

There's a bullish "Hammer", so there's an opportunity to have a local upward correction. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low.

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "SHOOTING STAR"
12:55 07.03.2018

There's a "Three Methods" pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, there's no any reversal pattern, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance area. If a pullback from this zone happens little later on, there'll be a moment for a bearish correction.

We've got a bearish "Shooting Star" right under the upper "Window". In this case, there's an opportunity to have a local correction towards the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "TOWER" PATTERN
12:18 08.03.2018

The 21 Moving Average is acting as resistance, but there's a "Morning Star" pattern, which has formed at the last low. So, we should keep an eye on the 55 MA, which could be a departure point for another decline.

There's a bullish "Tower" pattern, so the price is likely going to continue moving up. The main intraday target is the upper "Window", which could act as resistance.

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "HIGH WAVE"
12:17 08.03.2018

There's a bearish "High Wave", which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is the 144 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be a moment for a bullish price movement.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER"
12:50 12.03.2018

The price is consolidating between the Moving Averages. At the same time, there's a bullish "Hammer", so the pair is likely going to test the next resistance area in the short term.

There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed on the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. In this case, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" anytime soon.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: FOREX OUTLOOK
08:48 19.03.2018


The yen is appreciating against the greenback again. Despite attempts of the US dollar to return its positions, news from the White House did not let the greenback to recover. Worries about the Trump’s protectionism and trade wars were reinforced by the replacements in the White House. The US President fired the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and appointed the ex-director of CIA Mike Pompeo to this position. Both economic and political international policy of the US may become tighter. A new White House economic adviser announced a tougher policy in regard to China. Today the dollar weakened further as investors considered the implications of continuing personnel turmoil in the Trump administration. According to the Washington Post, Mr. Trump plans to remove his national security adviser.

Now the pair has come to 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement, if it is able to break it, the next support lies at 105.5.

However, there are chances that the greenback will find the support next week and the direction of USD/JPY will finally change. On next Wednesday we anticipate the US rate’s hike. According to forecasts, the Fed will raise the interest rate to 1.75%. Furthermore, a scandal with Japanese finance minister that is related to the school land sale still puts pressure on the yen. If there is an escalation of the scandal, the yen will weaken. That is not so bad for the Japanese currency because the dollar’s plunge below 105 will be critical for the yen and the Bank of Japan policy.

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLISH "FLAG" PATTERN
10:56 19.03.2018

There's a bullish "Flag", so the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.3996 - 1.4069. This area could be a starting point for a decline towards another support at 1.3928 - 1.3888.

The price is still consolidating in a range of the developing "Flag" pattern. Also, there's a pullback from the Moving Averages, so the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.3996 - 1.4023 in the short term.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: MAIN TARGET IS 89 MA
12:15 20.03.2018

The pair has been rising since the last "Engulfing" pattern formed. The main target is the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be a moment for another decline.

There's a bearish "High Wave" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens, bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window".

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "HIGH WAVE" PATTERN
12:13 20.03.2018

There're bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star", which both have been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

The last bearish "High Wave" pattern led to the current decline. It's likely that the pair is going to test the next support area in the short term. If any reversal pattern forms afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward price movement.

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: THE POUND DREW AN INSIDE BAR
07:31 21.03.2018


Recommendations:

BUY 1.4065

SL 1.401

TP1 1.4165 TP2 1.4225

On the daily chart of GBP/USD, there was a natural pullback after the pair reached the 88.6% target of the subsidiary “Shark” pattern. An inside bar was formed. A break of the resistance at 1.4065 will increase risks of the rally’s continuation to the 88.6% target of the parent “Shark” pattern.

On H1, the formation of the reversal “Three Indians” pattern endangered the implementation of “Wolfe Waves” and “Shark” patterns. To continue the uptrend, bulls need to break the resistance at 1.4065.

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: FRANC IS LOSING GROUND
06:49 21.03.2018


Recommendation:

BUY 0.9520

SL 0.9465

TP1 0.9620 TP2 0.9720 TP3 0.9770

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, bulls managed to settle above an important level of 0.9510. This indicates their strength and allows to expect an advance to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. To begin with, however, the pair needs to get out of the descending channel.

On H1, there’s a sustainable uptrend. Pullbacks to support at 0.9520 and 0.9480 should be used for buying with targets at 161.8% and 200% of AB=CD.

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS NEAR MAIN RESISTANCE
07:46 22.03.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.4140; resistance – 1.4200, 1.4250.


Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.4200; SL — 1.4220; TP1 — 1.4140; TP2 — 1.4080.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market was supported by Kijun-sen, but now is overbought and it’s under strong resistance.

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: THE BULLS RETURNING TO MARKET
07:45 22.03.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2300, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2360; SL — 1.2340; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market are returned into the positive area.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "INVERTED HAMMER" PATTERN
13:29 26.03.2018

There's a "Piercing Line", which has been formed at the last local low. So, we should keep an eye on the Moving Averages as an intraday bullish target.

We've got an "Inverted Hammer", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods" pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, there'll be a moment for another decline.

 

[riki143]

WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: MAR. 26-30
11:29 26.03.2018


US President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that will target up to $60 billion of Chinese products with tariffs. If China comes up with countermeasures, trade tensions will escalate further.

Concerns about trade wars have overshadowed central bank policy. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to 1.75% and signaled a relatively upbeat outlook for the economy. This is exactly the outcome the market was expecting, and the US dollar didn’t get any strength from the event.

The US dollar index declined and looks vulnerable for 2018 lows in the 89.20 area.

In the current uncertain environment, traders prefer low-risk assets like the Japanese yen, especially in pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. As for USD/JPY, if it settles below the key level of 105.00, we’ll see a deeper decline.

GBP/USD rose to the highest levels since January above 1.4200. The pound went up as the European Union and Britain agreed on a Brexit transition deal and the UK released strong wage growth figures. Two members of the Bank of England unexpectedly voted for a rate hike. However, traders focused on the idea that rates will rise only very slowly, so the pound retreated down by the end of the week. Traders continue to expect a rate hike in May, so the meeting didn’t really bring any surprises.

The 200-week MA creates resistance near 1.43. GBP/USD may retrace down to 1.3930 and 1.38.

EUR/USD continued consolidation between 1.24 and 1.22. Long-term uptrend remains in place, although the pair has lost its bullish momentum. European PMIs came below expectations. As a result, we expect the euro to continue trading close to the current levels.

Economic calendar

The economic calendar for the upcoming days is very light. Friday will be a bank holiday in many countries because of approaching Easter. The few important releases include US consumer confidence on Tuesday, American GDP on Wednesday and British current account together with Canadian GDP and US core PCE price index on Thursday.

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN
08:49 27.03.2018

There's a "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.4144. However, if we see a pullback from this line afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.4277 - 1.4344.

There're two "V-Top" patterns in a row. So, the pair is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average, which could be a starting point for another bullish price movement.