Experiment

[chump]

Playground Experiment

Here's a little experiment for you to try to explore the strength and commonality of perceptual bias and how it leads you where you should not be going......

Look up in a medical dictionary some mild ,common ailment ,doesn't matter which.....look at the symptoms listed......now go see your doctor , when he/she asks what's wrong ,,, run out some of the symptoms you have looked up..... I will guestimate that about 80% of the time your doctor will confirm your diagnosis as the one you presented to him...but there is nothing wrong with you so what is happening here afterall this is an 'expert' making a 'forecast' ...is it making you think ?

 

[boy]

well...I got this rash near where the sun dont shine and i was wondering....

 

[SOCRATES]

It just goes to show doesn't it ?

 

[aarie5]

well...I got this rash near where the sun dont shine and i was wondering....



should I get the wife's knickers off now?

 

[SOCRATES]

It just goes to show again, doesn't it ?

 

[chump]

Pareto's 80/20 law.... I won't say more because I don't need to..those who understand the reference don't need any further explanation and those that don't understand what I am saying with this welcome to the 80 club....

 

[trendie]

Here's a little experiment for you to try to explore the strength and commonality of perceptual bias and how it leads you where you should not be going......

Look up in a medical dictionary some mild ,common ailment ,doesn't matter which.....look at the symptoms listed......now go see your doctor , when he/she asks what's wrong ,,, run out some of the symptoms you have looked up..... I will guestimate that about 80% of the time your doctor will confirm your diagnosis as the one you presented to him...but there is nothing wrong with you so what is happening here afterall this is an 'expert' making a 'forecast' ...is it making you think ?

Interesting !!
But the point here is that you are deceiving the doctor. The doctor is basing his assessment on your honesty.

Suppose, you are Doctor Trader.
You patient Mr Stock Market comes to see you.

Symptoms:
A double-top, double-bottom, volume-blowoff, key-reversal. Inside Day. Outside Day.
A case of the Dojis. A nasty case of teh Haramis.

You dont know if Mr Stock Market is being honest or deceiving you.
You diagnosis is based on your patient telling you what the symptoms are.

 

[SOCRATES]

Chumpy, don't persist is my advice to you in this matter.

 

[TheBramble]

Here's a little experiment for you to try to explore the strength and commonality of perceptual bias and how it leads you where you should not be going......

Look up in a medical dictionary some mild ,common ailment ,doesn't matter which.....look at the symptoms listed......now go see your doctor , when he/she asks what's wrong ,,, run out some of the symptoms you have looked up..... I will guestimate that about 80% of the time your doctor will confirm your diagnosis as the one you presented to him...but there is nothing wrong with you so what is happening here afterall this is an 'expert' making a 'forecast' ...is it making you think ?

What's your point Chump? You give an expert a set of conditions (or symptoms in this case) and they correctly diagnose on the basis of the 'symptoms'.

The fact that you are lying and don't actually have those 'symptoms' is quite beside the point.

 

[nicos]

Tony,
The way it looks is that the doctor is the expert and as such should have allowed for the fact that you are possiply loopy (your real illness) and examine you instead of going by what he/she is told. There are market parallels to this. Most are "tricked" by the "market" and and lose. Or for instance the way we interpret news (buy the rumor, sell the fact, springs to mind). I believe Chump is trying to induce people to think in the way they should in order to win in the markets. I think he should explain for the benefit of those who need to know in order to become better traders inspite of having been advised on the contrary.

 

[trendie]

chump,

your initial post is more intriguing than I originally thought.

"experts" are people such as american academics who showed "mathematically" that heavier-than-air machines couldnt fly, AFTER the Wright brothers flew at Kitty Hawk.

"experts" are people such as the Astronomer Royal who in the early 1950s said spaceflight was impossible - just a few years later Sputnik was launched.

"experts" are people who rubbished Wegeners ideas of Contintental drift, until the evidence proved otherwise.

I suppose, an expert who has been taught to think in a certain way, to such an extent, they cannot think "out of the box", and can easily be misled to concluding things, based on asumptions which are accepted by consensus rather then proof.

 

[Trader333]

Let's face it, in the world in which we live people know more and more about less and less. Experts know even more about even less and at this rate they will soon know everything about nothing.


Paul

 

[Racer]

Look up in a medical dictionary some mild ,common ailment ,doesn't matter which.....look at the symptoms listed......now go see your doctor , when he/she asks what's wrong ,,, run out some of the symptoms you have looked up..... I will guestimate that about 80% of the time your doctor will confirm your diagnosis as the one you presented to him...but there is nothing wrong with you so what is happening here afterall this is an 'expert' making a 'forecast' ...is it making you think ?

I would disagree that they would agree with you. The only way you could have the same symptoms as the one you looked up is if there are none to see/find, so therefore there is nothing wrong with you!

 

[Roberto]

a proper dr would at least check the symptoms himself (say aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh, cold stethescope etc) rather than take the word of a tipster.

I think you've confused "symptoms" with "signs". A doctor can't check the symptoms himself: they form the "history" part of the process of "history; examination; investigations; diagnosis; treatment". What you've described (the signs) come from the examination. I don't mean it rudely, but the entire analogy was a little suspect from the start.

 

[Racer]

But aren't symptoms perceptible change in the body or functions indicating presence of disease? So therefore they can be checked.

Therefore lack of similarity to the 'alleged' disease can be deduced and no illness found

 

[Roberto]

But aren't symptoms perceptible change in the body or functions indicating presence of disease?

"Symptoms" are things perceived by the patient - what the patient is "complaining of". Signs are what the doctor finds by examining the patient to confirm or refute the impression(s) he already has from listening to the account of the symptoms ("history"). If the doctor doesn't have some possible diagnoses in mind after hearing the history, in practice he's unlike to arrive correctly at a probable diagnosis after the examination, either. Old London teaching hospital allegation: a Guys Hosptal doctor examines the patient with one hand in his pocket, but a Barts Hospital doctor examines the patient with both hands in his pockets. It's a great compliment to their history-taking skills.

 

[Racer]

So therefore they can be checked.

"Symptoms" are things perceived by the patient

So therefore they can be checked,

 

[SOCRATES]

u lot must have some awful doctors!

a proper dr would at least check the symptoms himself (say aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh, cold stethescope etc) rather than take the word of a tipster.

as 4 u albert labos - maybe u should try and facilitate discussion as a normal balanced person would - like the markets facilitate trade - when balanced - that is why we are here. please dont get angry with us again 4 having different viewpoints 2 yourself - or those who have just began their quest - u know the view points that u obtained at an fts course - not on the floor of lse as u like us 2 believe - ( a little bird tells me u were mending watches at the time ).

When people have different viewpints it does not make me angry, it fills me with dismay when the viewpoints are the blundering pronouncements of the stupid, the pea brained, who ought not to express viewpoints about that which they know very little or nothing, because this is misguiding to others who do not have sufficient experience or expertise to immediately sort out what is nonsense and what is not.

 

[SOCRATES]

A conciensious doctor would listen to what the patient would have to say, then carry out a detailed examination, which would allow him to arrive at a conclusion in making a correct diagnosis, upon which he then would act accordingly, is the answer.

 

[SOCRATES]

You are talking rubbish again and it is quite obvious to all of us that you inhabit a different planet to the rest of us as well.