Evening trading US shares

[Grey1]

Hi dcraig,
I hear what you're saying and, broadly speaking, I agree with you. These are the kinds of measures necessary to combat large unexpected overnight gaps. And to be fair to Iraj, as anyone on his private forum will testify, he emphasizes the importance of risk management continually and outlines methods for implementing such strategies. Nonetheless, in the case of his short MBI trade, he doesn't mention specifically that he covered it on Thursday. If I've understood the screen shot in post #928 correctly, (a BIG if, I know!) then Iraj is short 2900 shares with an average entry price of $30.21. If he's still holding the stock, as of Friday's close he's down -$18,270.00 and, even if he managed to cover the trade at the low of Friday's trading at $34.33, he'd be down -$11,948.00. I hope and expect that he closed the trade on Thursday for a handsome profit. Even if he didn't and is nursing the sorts of losses outlined here, he's probably hedged the position in the manner you describe, so it's no big deal. Even so - and this is my point - you need gonads of steel and a stomach lined with lead to trade this way, IMO. All credit to those that can do it, but I know I can't!

Tim.

opps sorry about not replying , Yes I covered and went short again on Friday as shown on Technical Trader swing trading BB,, I did say that that was my last trade and I only made 4000$ and not $4400 which basically i could not get out of the down ward spike in time to bag in extra 400$ ..

Any way ,, I used to have this facility that when ever some one replied to any of my posts i used to get an email from T2W,, but i donot get this any more any idea why ? As a result i could reply immeditlety

What do i need to adjust in my settings ?

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

still good price for short ??

View attachment 31482

MBI is an awesome short based on fundamentals as well as Technical ,, The only way MBI might survive the down ward trend is by cash injection by an overseas investor with few Oil wells to spare.

grey1

 

[Grey1]

Hi Iraj,
Just a quick question regarding the MBI short if I may. Just looking at the chart today and notice that it closed at $36.51 yesterday (Friday 30th). I sure hope you covered on Thursday, otherwise the fantastic profit will have turned into an almighty loss!
I admire greatly anyone who swing trades U.S. stocks successfully and manages to get a good night's sleep!

Tim.

Sorry about the delay in reply ,, As I said i used to get an email from T2W when ever some one replied to my thread I no longer get that. I hope some one tells me how to sort the problem out.

Yes I closed My MBI short on Thursday and went short on friday afternoon as I posted the screen shot on TT. I will post p/l again on TT when i close the postion,,
Grey1

 

[timsk]

Sorry about the delay in reply ,, As I said i used to get an email from T2W when ever some one replied to my thread I no longer get that. I hope some one tells me how to sort the problem out.

Hi Iraj - thanks for the reply.
If you go into 'User CP', then 'edit options' and then look for 'Messaging and Notification'. There you'll see a drop down menu with 5 options to choose from. HTH.

Yes I closed My MBI short on Thursday and went short on friday afternoon as I posted the screen shot on TT. I will post p/l again on TT when i close the postion,,
Grey1

I imagined you had closed it - and just as well that you did! I seem to recall you saying that you might keep it running for three days or more. I'm just wondering what made you close it on Thursday?
Cheers,
Tim.

 

[Grey1]

Hi Iraj - thanks for the reply.
If you go into 'User CP', then 'edit options' and then look for 'Messaging and Notification'. There you'll see a drop down menu with 5 options to choose from. HTH.


I imagined you had closed it - and just as well that you did! I seem to recall you saying that you might keep it running for three days or more. I'm just wondering what made you close it on Thursday?
Cheers,
Tim.

Thanks for the info ,, my instant message was checked from years ago but this stopped for some reason and I have not changed my email ,, I appreciate if any of the ADMINS who read this post to go to my settings and see what have I done wrong ,, Thanks in advance


Now

There are two situations in TA which are very clear cut strategies and i am sure many people e use this strategy ,, It is called Capitulation and Euphoria,,, If you are short and capitulation occurs you cover immediately ,,,and if you are long you close your long pos in Euphoria. This strategy applies in any instrument ,Even if you are spread betting cash INDU you can still apply it,

The sudden sell off of the MBI on thursday was an example of Capitulation and hence closing the position ,, If a position trends down you don't close,, The price regression line must be steep and fast. This is actually a good example for those who are more mature in trading ,, if the sell off to LOW of the day is steep and fast you can LONG the stock for the rest of the day and even keep it long OVER night. For further confirmation of over night trade make sure the price closes above yesterday's close.

There are algorithms you can buy which signals the the capitulation /Euphoria scenarios. In fact I know a guy from this BB who has written a code for the above mentioned technique

grey1

 

[Mr. Charts]

One approach I find very useful in day trading is to be aware of the previous day's highs and lows in the stock I'm looking at. They are frequently lines in the sand which act as support and resistance.
Richard

 

[timsk]

Yo Mr. Charts - is that really you!!!
Welcome back

Tim.

 

[Mayfly]

Tim,

I suspect it's just some kind of cuckoo reversal pattern. Nothing too serious, it's just that time of year.

So, where have you been then, Richard?

Rgds

Mayfly

 

[dvdh]

One approach I find very useful in day trading is to be aware of the previous day's highs and lows in the stock I'm looking at. They are frequently lines in the sand which act as support and resistance.
Richard

Hi Richard,

how's it going?
Let's bump this thread! It's been a long while!

I agree, previous day HI/LO do act as support/resistance.

Everybody still making money?
It's been a rollercoaster year so far! Volatility has gone through the roof lately, especially some of the financials. I have a feeling we're gonna get some bad earnings the 2nd half of the year. This credit crunch ain't over yet!

-Dave

 

[TheBramble]

It's been a rollercoaster year so far! Volatility has gone through the roof lately, especially some of the financials. I have a feeling we're gonna get some bad earnings the 2nd half of the year. This credit crunch ain't over yet!

Not just earnings either Dave. Serious trouble still very likely in the banking sector.

Bank of America
Citibank
JP Morgan
HBOS
HSBC

All of the above are far more massively exposed than is generally known to the continuing and increasing credit squeeze and higher debt ratios.

JP Morgan is especially exposed with its acquisition of the Bear Stearns mess. It was already in a more dangerous position than BS before the fit hit the shand there. Unbelievable. I wondered if they acquired it simply as a bit of future-proofing for explaining away any dive they may expect to take in the short term?

And I hear that in the UK, HSBC or HBOS (can't remember which) are considering 'cornering the market' on the currently expiring fixed rate mortgages market and re-offering at original rates (about 1% below any other current offering). Equally unbelievable given their already strung out ratios. Of course, if it works, it’ll work just great and they’ll take home the bacon. If they get it wrong, and their current position indicates they already have without any new initiatives, they’ll get fried.

As you say, interesting times ahead.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hi guys (and girls),
Thanks for the PMs and all the emails - I'll answer all the them, but it'll take a bit of time !

So why do y'day's highs and lows matter?
If the stock is trading below y'day's low and trending down, then every single overnight holder from y'day is in loss and probably looking to sell - this adds fuel to the downwards direction.

If the stock is trading above y'day's high and trending up, then every single overnight shorter from y'day is in loss and probably looking to buy to cover - this adds fuel to the upwards direction.

Richard

 

[dvdh]

Not just earnings either Dave. Serious trouble still very likely in the banking sector.

Bank of America
Citibank
JP Morgan
HBOS
HSBC

All of the above are far more massively exposed than is generally known to the continuing and increasing credit squeeze and higher debt ratios.

JP Morgan is especially exposed with its acquisition of the Bear Stearns mess. It was already in a more dangerous position than BS before the fit hit the shand there. Unbelievable. I wondered if they acquired it simply as a bit of future-proofing for explaining away any dive they may expect to take in the short term?

And I hear that in the UK, HSBC or HBOS (can't remember which) are considering 'cornering the market' on the currently expiring fixed rate mortgages market and re-offering at original rates (about 1% below any other current offering). Equally unbelievable given their already strung out ratios. Of course, if it works, it’ll work just great and they’ll take home the bacon. If they get it wrong, and their current position indicates they already have without any new initiatives, they’ll get fried.

As you say, interesting times ahead.

Definately. Although JPM is gonna get big time financing from the Federal Reserve. So they should be okay. I'm not too worried about that!
There are a lot of rumours circulating about about LEH being in trouble!

And of course, we don't have to worry about Goldman. Because they always make money!
The fact that Goldman stopped doing business with Bear Stearns is one of the major reasons that Bear went south so fast. GS advised their clients to stop doing business with them and to transfer their accounts to other banks! Two weeks later, indeed the sh*t hit the fan!

-Dave

 

[Mr. Charts]

LEH is already on my watch list for today
Richard

 

[dvdh]

LEH is already on my watch list for today
Richard

Yes. On mine too. As well as FMCN, VMED, TWB, FCSX.

Good luck and trade safe y'all!

 

[Mr. Charts]

Thanks for TWB, Dave - I've got the others, but not that one.
Check out AMGN
Richard

 

[Mr. Charts]

The stocks on my pre-market watch list didn't set up as I wanted so I didn't trade them.
I only traded three times this afternoon, fewer than normal.
I do like stocks with clear movement as they tend to move more reliably.

The first was XRAY which was trending nicely down. The short was on the X hairs and I exited at the time of the image as the momentum appeared to be dying on level 2 T&S.
The latter usually provide the trigger to my set ups and usually the exits too.
That was a 30c per share profit.
Richard

 

[Mr. Charts]

The second trade was SGMS.
The set up one of my patterns I call a Jumbo and I wrote an article for Knowledge Lab about the pattern way back if anyone wants to read it.
The entry was on the X hairs and the trigger was again level2 T&S.
I exited for a 15c scalp at the time of the image as it looked like a volume blow off to me and I wanted to sell into all the late buyers of the stock.
Richard

 

[Mr. Charts]

The third trade was also SGMS.
After I've traded something I always keep it on my watch list in case in presents another opportunity in terms of a set up then trigger.
My attitude is always do what the market tells you to do and never trust your opinion. Or worse, wish or hope.
This means that if another opportunity arises, you can always trade it again.
After I closed the previous trade, SGMS pulled back sharply then resumed its move a few minutes later.
The entry was again on the X hairs with a level2 T&S trigger. It ran and ran till I decided to exit at the time of the image for $1.40 per share because level2 T&S then showed the momentum of buying seemed to be dying.
One of the reasons I like this style of trading is that I can usually find some stocks that are moving whether the market is trending or not. They are "hot" in the sense that they are attracting speculative interest and can trend, bounce, break out etc quite cleanly.
Obviously you do need a skills set and experience to trade this way, not to mention all the usual basics like position and money management, position sizing and above all self-discipline and self-control.
Once the stock is moving into profit position management is essential.
I'll write about initial stop losses another time, but I personally do not use charts as a stop loss method or percentages.
Like every trader I get failed trades, but they are normally small profits, ( if the trade fails having first gone into profit I don't let it turn into a loss), or small losses.
There is also an example of how I use level2 T&S way back on Knowledge Lab.
I hope some people find the above useful or interesting.
Richard

 

[counter_violent]

Hello Richard

What you are describing is " expectancy" ie if once a trade is entered into, the price action does not perform as expected within price and time parameters...then the best course of action is to exit.

cv

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hello CV,
I just call it not losing money
I always think that to trade on the basis of say going long with a stop loss under support is like being prepared to pay out money to the market in the hope of being proved right. I prefer to use momentum on level 2 and T&S, (reading participant behaviour included), to carry me into profit immediately. This doesn't work about 16% of the time on average, but it also means some of the winners can be small - but then so are the losers. The real money is made on the ones which do move.
Of course the above refers to trading US shares only, not other instruments.
Richard