EURUSD - next 6-12 months

[Atilla]

Nice diagram CV and certainly highlights the LHs. I don't see a convincing upside to the Euro at the moment either but...

... if you look at the weeklies scaling out to 2015/3, you'll see 1.03s were strong support which the Euro bounced off (then again in 2015/11).

So I would concur that if one is going to go long 1.030s pretty good spot, with stops below 1.0280s or someplace sort of scaling out if it starts tanking.

I still hold the view probability and R:R of seeing 1.14 is greater than 1.02s or even parity for that matter. Indicators showing oversold too.

So on balance if not for Brexit fiasco, I'd go in long and hard too. Simply have a nagging feeling of uncertainty and risk so each to their own risk appetite I guess. You Brexiters lot have really put the cat amongst the pigeons. :whistling




Addenda: Attached is the old long term monthly diag which is still playing out imo.

I know it's not my trade, but is just bothers me and I'm not seeing the upside in it.
So my concerns are based mainly on price n time, also the swift price rejections (marked) and back into overall trend.

 

[forker]

If you trade technicals then there isn't much going for the euro. I don't even bother with technicals anymore as it would just cloud my judgement.

 

[forker]

Some news out today

Euro zone prices grow faster than expected in December

Eurostat said prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.1 percent year-on-year last month, sharply accelerating from a 0.6 percent annual, increase in November and 0.5 percent in October.

 

[counter_violent]

If you trade technicals then there isn't much going for the euro. I don't even bother with technicals anymore as it would just cloud my judgement.

Yeah, I didn't really want to post a chart from a technical perspective and everyone has a different interpretation anyway. Atilla pointed to my chart highlights and interpreted them as lower highs, when I specifically said they were to do with price n time and speed of rejection of those levels.

The point is, until similar type action is seen in the opposite direction, then on balance I have to stay with short plays.

 

[forker]

Yeah, I didn't really want to post a chart from a technical perspective and everyone has a different interpretation anyway. Atilla pointed to my chart highlights and interpreted them as lower highs, when I specifically said they were to do with price n time and speed of rejection of those levels.

The point is, until similar type action is seen in the opposite direction, then on balance I have to stay with short plays.

You're welcome to post anything you like here. I am not anal about thread content like others are.

 

[Atilla]

You're welcome to post anything you like here. I am not anal about thread content like others are.

Thanks Forker, sometimes I wonder about posting an opinion as do not wish to sway but always interesting to hear another perspective.


CV I recall you mentioning time and price movements before and was wondering if there is any material you can point to?

Is it like Fib time retracements or something else?

 

[forker]

Didn't fxmo use time and price

 

[counter_violent]

Thanks Forker, sometimes I wonder about posting an opinion as do not wish to sway but always interesting to hear another perspective.


CV I recall you mentioning time and price movements before and was wondering if there is any material you can point to?

Is it like Fib time retracements or something else?

Sadly there isn't, I've not written the book yet and probably never will ! But if you want to jump on Skype then I could show you examples and how to calculate and observe the method. Essentially, the "smart money" cannot disguise itself in all price movements. Some specific price movements tell us where future prices are likely headed.

 

[counter_violent]

Didn't fxmo use time and price

He did of a fashion, but not related in any way to the systematic price framework I have developed.

 

[forker]

Sounds interesting.

 

[counter_violent]

Sounds interesting.

Same offer applies post 48

 

[Atilla]

Sadly there isn't, I've not written the book yet and probably never will ! But if you want to jump on Skype then I could show you examples and how to calculate and observe the method. Essentially, the "smart money" cannot disguise itself in all price movements. Some specific price movements tell us where future prices are likely headed.

Thank you kindly CV but I basically, wanted to get a gist of what it entailed.

I'll wait for your book and add it to my wish list.

Much obliged

 

[victorycountry]

Some news out today

Euro zone prices grow faster than expected in December

Eurostat said prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.1 percent year-on-year last month, sharply accelerating from a 0.6 percent annual, increase in November and 0.5 percent in October.

Germany is heavily buying gold for hedging purpose now in case European banking system collapse in 2017... there could be another financial crisis in 2017 as there were last two 7th year.

Relevant article

http://www.fool.ca/2017/01/04/will-a-european-banking-crisis-be-the-financial-calamity-of-2017/

 

[forker]

Germany is heavily buying gold for hedging purpose now in case European banking system collapse in 2017... there could be another financial crisis in 2017 as there were last two 7th year.

Relevant article

http://www.fool.ca/2017/01/04/will-a-european-banking-crisis-be-the-financial-calamity-of-2017/

I am unconvinced of the banking crisis because there has been a lot of regulatory changes since the last crisis to safeguard. DB have been restructuring and selling assets to raise capital for the fine. 20% of their loans are nonperforming which isn't critical. They do have a huge pie in derivatives but with regulations and restructuring i thing they will be okay and the IMF arent concerned (their last statement on this).
I spent a good amount of time researching this sector in the EU before opening a position with Italy being the only pinch point. Germany has been selling gold since 2001 and if they are buying then it might be to sure up their reserves although the data doesn't show this (yet)

Just my opinion, i think a lot of this has been blown out of proportion (as is always the case). The same conclusion applies to the current sentiment on the $ where the valuation isn't supported by the sort of data that should back it.

I will be taking profit on any run up and opening new buys when the $ mugs sell it back down. I need to do this to cover the rollover costs but it will also put some ching in the bag

 

[forker]

booked 200 pips on 1 portion and another 100 on another. I have 2 open slices left on the table and the other empty slots will be opened again when the opportunity is made available. Rollover for position paid for happy days

 

[victorycountry]

booked 200 pips on 1 portion and another 100 on another. I have 2 open slices left on the table and the other empty slots will be opened again when the opportunity is made available. Rollover for position paid for happy days

Good on you yes, I do agree that there is no significant sign that there will be another crisis this year.

Looks like euro will continue to appreciate until inauguration.

 

[AbdulLight]

Honestly you guys can't go predicating anything in the financial market, i'd call that gambling, 6-12 months is too long to plan and the conditions of the market can literally change anytime. Trade what you see guys, do not trade what you think, anticipate the market and understand the psychology of the traders. Also predicting the market you're sort of chasing it, never ever chase the money, let it come to you!!!

#HappyTrading

 

[victorycountry]

I am unconvinced of the banking crisis because there has been a lot of regulatory changes since the last crisis to safeguard. DB have been restructuring and selling assets to raise capital for the fine. 20% of their loans are nonperforming which isn't critical. They do have a huge pie in derivatives but with regulations and restructuring i thing they will be okay and the IMF arent concerned (their last statement on this).
I spent a good amount of time researching this sector in the EU before opening a position with Italy being the only pinch point. Germany has been selling gold since 2001 and if they are buying then it might be to sure up their reserves although the data doesn't show this (yet)

Just my opinion, i think a lot of this has been blown out of proportion (as is always the case). The same conclusion applies to the current sentiment on the $ where the valuation isn't supported by the sort of data that should back it.

I will be taking profit on any run up and opening new buys when the $ mugs sell it back down. I need to do this to cover the rollover costs but it will also put some ching in the bag

At the moment all US dollar pairs including gold is appreciating. And inauguration is on Jan 20. I have been keep thinking about the time when it will reverse. I think it will happen when ECB will announce it's interest rate on Jan 19.

 

[forker]

At the moment all US dollar pairs including gold is appreciating. And inauguration is on Jan 20. I have been keep thinking about the time when it will reverse. I think it will happen when ECB will announce it's interest rate on Jan 19.

I was expecting a larger cpi deviation for the eu which didn't happen. It was better than expected but it wasn't quite enough to lay the groundwork for the ECB to change rates sooner. In any case there is no question they are facing greater inflation this year. I am hoping tomorrows nfp number is good to give me another opportunity to buy.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

I am calling we are more or less at the trough in the pair. Fundamentally there is growing evidence for a longer term opportunity to 1.2 or approximately 1500 pips. What is your call, if any?

I would love to add to this by referencing a thread i had started, but notice some dick ( or perhaps tom or even harry) somewhere has erased this info from my profile. why would that be....