Euro Daily Trader

I have just done a quick exercise to see whether there's a bias towards losing on Bank Holidays.
This has been the outcome on 26,27 December, 2 January, 6 and 9 April, so that's 95 pips given up, whereas 29th August was actually a BE.

Also America has a long list of bank holidays or public observances, and whether or not their markets were closed on all of the following extra days I'm not sure
4th July Loss
5th Sept Win
10th Oct NT
11 Nov NT
24 Nov Win

I don't know if that's enough to prove anything?
 
Greetings. I'm new here and I'm keeping my eye on the EURUSD numbers. Generally it looks like the more losses than wins over the past couple of weeks, although I know I need to look at longer timeframes to get a sense of how successful the EA is. I'll keep watching and reading. Best wishes to all the traders out there.
 
Donna Forex: Mike says they're working the weekend. I didnt know whether to take this as a general statement or if they were working on the strategy.

He shows great fortitude that this experience of multiple losses will pass, however I'm sure they have the computer power and historical data to simuate whether the indicators or filters can be improved. And we'd all be interested if that's the case, I struggle to understand why it should go into terminal decline, but that can still happen if market behaviour after lunch in the NY session changes forever. It would be really interesting to know what say the 10 years performance of this system might have been, the Euro has been around long enough by now
 
Sadly the magic hasn't been working in this method lately, Monday 23, anotherSL.

Somehow there was a sense the Euro was oversold as it had taken a bashing on news (eg French presidential elections) in the Asian, UK and in the start of the NY sessions, and it didn't want to go down any more. Thus there was a gradual drifting for 2 or 3 hours until -19 stopped out. I keep wondering whether there's an indicator or a boundary to one of the usual readings which would stop the system trading in such cases.
 
Tuesday night. Such a shame, I think I was stopped out at -19 with less than 1/2 a pip more movement before it turned back around again and would have got +9.

There are consequences to trading forex which you have to live with!
Not all of which seem fair at the time.

1800hrs Wednesday: No trade.
 
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wiseambitions said:
Tuesday night. Such a shame, I think I was stopped out at -19 with less than 1/2 a pip more movement before it turned back around again and would have got +9.

There are consequences to trading forex which you have to live with!
Not all of which seem fair at the time.

1800hrs Wednesday: No trade.
Click to expand...

I wish the feeling of a couple TPs in a row wasn't such a distant memory :(
 
v5.0 isn't so much of a DAILY trader, 1st night with the new version and it didn't signal a trade. The previous versionwould have gone short and incurred a loss nearly 12 hours later.

The new version not only amends the exit rules but it also filters out more trades starting, inevitably causing a few wins as well as losses to be eliminated, hopefully improving the overall profit

If anyone wants to share research on this with me, I've tried to backtest for several months, please PM
====

Tuesday: Looks like v5.0 didn't trade againtoday and saved us another disaster. V4.0 would have gone short and lost, but after the drop seen around 15:00 uk time it was rather likely for the price to have retraced
 
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Wednesday night;
v5.0 TP 25pips. v4.0 BE +9pips
So far this week v4.0 2SL, 1BE -29 pips v5.0 2NT, 1TP + 25.

This opens up a lead of 54 pips for the new version. Hopefully the improvement will hold good.

Thursday: v5 opened a long trade which closed a few minutes later with minimal loss i.e 2 pips; this might have been a software issue, (I mean the closing), and is being investigated. Just as well actually because if left to run it would have gone to stop loss after more than 15 hours. (The market was definitely stuck in a narrow channel after 16:00 GMT Thursday and didn't break out of it until after 07:00 Friday. ) A wierd thing to say is that in spite of a real trade opening at 18:00 UK time Thursday, a back test this morning indicated NT. Says a lot about the shortcomings of back testing, there seem to be blips like this occasionally.
 
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wiseambitions said:
Wednesday night;
v5.0 TP 25pips. v4.0 BE +9pips
So far this week v4.0 2SL, 1BE -29 pips v5.0 2NT, 1TP + 25.

This opens up a lead of 54 pips for the new version. Hopefully the improvement will hold good.

Thursday: v5 opened a long trade which closed a few minutes later with minimal loss i.e 2 pips; this might have been a software issue, (I mean the closing), and is being investigated. Just as well actually because if left to run it would have gone to stop loss after more than 15 hours. (The market was definitely stuck in a narrow channel after 16:00 GMT Thursday and didn't break out of it until after 07:00 Friday. ) A wierd thing to say is that in spite of a real trade opening at 18:00 UK time Thursday, a back test this morning indicated NT. Says a lot about the shortcomings of back testing, there seem to be blips like this occasionally.
Click to expand...

We got a No Trade signal Thursday on our live GKFX account which is the one we run as "official" and publish the results from on the website. That said, it was a very close call and a couple of the demo accounts we run for comparison got a long signal. This has happened a couple of times before and cannot be avoided. There has to be a cut-off point somewhere!

Friday: We are in on a short trade at 1.30881.

Mike
The Forex Club
 
Ok, the point I was making is we can forward test live accounts with a broker, then subsequently run a back test on exactly the same platform which for a long period (say 100 days) could well come up with slightly different results every time you run it - even if you do it minutes apart.

My understanding is that with most mt4 brokers the spreads between buy and sell price fluctuate all the time, and the strategy tester would probably be using spreads current at the present time, not those which applied at the time the trade might have happened. Therefore the backtest on some runs might pick up or miss individual trades, or allow varying number of pips for some of the sessions. Slightly worrying, the backtests seem to always show losses of either exactly 19 pips or seldom more than 19.5, yet I think real life would throw up plenty occasions where there's a bit more slippage than that (and I mean in an unfavourable direction).

Also we accept sometimes there are indicators which are right on the border (Thursday being the example), and some live charts would trade them and others would not, subject to the sensitive price movements logged by some brokers and not others. Incidentially there would now seem to be a new filter in v5.0 if not in v4 as well which stops trading completely in a middle zone because I haven't seen cases lately of some charts going short when others go long, which I have remembered seeing in the past.

General impressions of v5 from the first week are that it is an improvement. We may get a better overall result from trading 20% fewer occasions than v4 and hopefully missing more losing than winning trades. But we've lost the 1:2 risk reward ratio and live in the hope that the TS kicks in and takes us in and rides the wave for a few extra pips as often as possible.
 
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Oh dear, I made a post and shared a few PMs lately saying there was a link between Bank holidays and bad trades. And last night was another of such. Bearing in mind May Day holiday on Monday is not a global observation, I couldn't see any connection and logic to it, but it was just another loss. The session opened long on a high point, languished about 0 to 10 pips under the open for 4 or 5 hours then looked like it was going to go our way, but it didn't hold. Don't know where our luck has gone?
With this being the first London session after the defeat of Sarkozy I suppose the euro could test new lows again today.

6pm, Tuesday: I think v4 would have traded and gone to SL, v5.0 doesn't seem to have traded. Presumably a change of indicators or a new filter again. Anyway it saved the day.
 
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Wednesday:

We have another "No Trading" signal this evening. As you will be aware, there is considerable upset in the Euro market at the moment and EDT v5.0 is protecting us against this. So although this is rather like watching paint dry, the new indicator and filter settings on EDT v5.0 are doing their job. We shall just have to be patient. :sleep:

Mike
The Forex Club
 
oh right. Well it saved us another disaster. I guess v4 would have traded and stopped out within 45 mins. It opens up a difference of about 75 pips between the old version and the new, in less than 2 weeks.
 
Another SL Thurs

I'm of the opinion this market is controlled by his majesty the devil.

Nothing which used to follow a pattern i.e. the behaviour of the market with EDT over the last year or two seems to follow that pattern any more.

Everyone's getting a bit tired of this. Let alone seeing their accounts fade away.

If there's a glimmer of hope, it is to say that the latest modification has the capability to reduce the losses, hopefully it will also have the ability to trap a few profits too...
Since 1 March, to 10th May, 50 days, I think v4.0 could have lost 316 pips, whereas v5.0 might have lost 119. That's nearly 200 better or less bad, however you want to look at it. That's a backtest, E&OE.
 
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I think v4.0 would have traded and hit +9 reset Monday night, but v5.0 abstained. There's still a difference of somewhere around 60-70 pips (backtested) in favour of v5, since the start of the month. So 'less bad' kind of means better, but we'd like to see some more wins. Need to recover from this drawdown

Tuesday evening: A win at last! edt v5.0, about 28-9 pips. v4.0 might have invoked the TS and got more than 38. The gap between them narrows slightly. Let's have some more of these
 
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Not a great believer in luck although the last couple of months have strained that belief in that if there is such a thing; we have had our fair share of the bad kind.

When you consider that spikes should be random events (random in terms of the direction they go) most of these went against us and when you have a 2:1 ratio that makes a massive difference to the pip total.

However, one went our way tonight (Friday) and we took the lion's share of it due to the trailing stop function on the EA.

Long signal this evening and our entry on the live GKFX account is spot at 1.27317 given that the candle opened at 1.27302 and the spread is 1.5 pips. A very nice spike around 20:10 (London) hit the 25 pip target and the best trailing stop so far took the trade way up to close at 1.27796 - a win of 47.9 pips. This will show as a rounded 48 pips on the website results page.

Nice one! :D

Have a good weekend all.

Mike
The Forex Club
 
Yes fortunately it went our way but I wonder if one or two members got stopped out at a time when it looked at the stop loss devil eyeball to eyeball

I have heard an expression 'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' and seeing we have had 2 months of this nonsense now I'm not alone in wondering whether and when the technical conditions which favour the system, including all its upgrades, will return.
 
What a lottery......
v5.0 wins 10 pips, v4.0 wins 70 pips Tuesday night (in theory anyway!).

This means that my tally for the month is now
v5 +16 pips, v4 -21 pips (gap is closing!) v3.0 -35 pips.

Still possible to claim the new version is best, going on the last 3 weeks.
 
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