I never said I am "often wrong". I would be void of my ego is I was. I said, "I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong." In being wrong it keeps my ego in check. If I was wrong often, then we would not be talking, because I would not be coming around.
It would not inspire confidence seeing the 2 pairs I posted a forecast on in this thread I have been wrong on by a whole leg. I would honestly thing you were nuts if you said, "Paul, you were only wrong by a whole leg on thse picks, so I now I have unadulterated confidence in your method.
Part 2 of the confidence thing-- The people that follow my thread that have followed my thread in the past, have that confidence in my analysis, because being consistnetly right on approximately 24 out of 28 picks per week ain't bad.
Part 3-- The amazing thing is that I don't aim for someone's confidence. That part of it comes naturally (Not here, because I am 0 for 2.), as followers of my thread and blog will atest. What I shoot for is to have my trading challenged to take it to a new level, and to help a newbie here and there that is looking to make it in trading.
3a. I never challenge nor promote my methodology. It is the strangest method of trading you have ever seen. A methodology can be developed for each individual, and if you are trading successfully, you will agree with that, because your method produces winning results. The nice thing about the inidividualality of trading is that 2 people can have as diverse views as you and I do, and we are winners, nevertheless.
I don't try and do a metrics thing on calculating my performance. I just love seeing 80% of my trades return as winners. I love counting pips (Thus, 4xpipcounter). And, I do love converting pips to money. That's really nice! Tucker gets really nice dog treats, when I get lots of pips. Oh yeah, my wife and I also get to do really nice things, and go really nice places.
I was about 300 pips down on the 1st trade, That was not my forecasting's fault. I had to take the fault there for entering a little too early.
I had a net of +284 pips on the 3 trades. The first trade that was entered at 1.5711 was -46 pips. The other 2 combined for +310 pips to equal +284.
Right. No stops (Against most rules.)! I don't like getting spiked out of trades. I also don't like 55% winning percentages (Not knocking anyone that does have 55%. If it produces net positive pips, then that is all that counts.). I'm also confident enough in my methodology that I have entered at the extremties of any trend within any TF. The mathematics are always on my side. I margin 10%, which is 1 lot per 10k in my account. That means the trade would have to back up on my 1,000 pips before it would bankrupt. Another thing is that I have my backup plan. I may have a trade go awry on me. It will never go 1,000 pips against me, but let's say some freaky, off-the-wall thing happens. The likelihood is that I could be in a "freaky"trade, and I see another pair that is really hot that I want to trade. I'm not stupid. I'm not going to put up another trade and put my whole margin in my account in jeopardy. Therefore, my backup plan (You won't hear this from most trades.) I have at least what is equal in my trading account in readily liquid assets. Sooo, I deposit an extra amount which is what I call a holding for that trade. Once that trade is closed, I withdraw the amount that I used to accomodate it.
Also in the case of a situation like the GBP/CHF, when I know I have a fast moving pair on my hands. I know that when it reverses, like it did today, it's going to be big, which is why I'll add to my position if it drops a leg. In this case I added twice, which tripled the pleasure going back up. Even at doubling it, if I am down 300, and I gain only 200 of it, I am actually up 100. The math, right? 220*2 is 400, after being down by 300, so it equals +100. Today's trade can be viewed as 1 net trade of a gain, or 2 winners and 1 loser. That is just IMPO.
The "respective reviews" that I mentioned. I mentioned my Weekly Report, but that was in referring to this week's. Therefore, there are no reviews for this week, because it is not finished, yet. The respective review could be the one from last week. You cna dig through my thread and find it, or you can PM me your e-mail address, and I'll send it to you. As always, I hold a great deal of respect for people's privacy, so my WR's are all you will get, and no one else will ever get your e-mail.
LOL, I could never say they are "often completely erroneous, because I would be lying. I am right, almost all the time. Call it ego and not the lack of humility. Seriously, if you really knew me, you would know someone ideally confident, and yet, idealy honest and humble, and yet, someone with a big ego. If you like that blend, then you will like me, if not, then I apologize. You are part of the human race, so you will never get me to dislike you.
The honest comes in with being completely frank (No pun intended.) and upfront about the bad forecasts on the Swiss crosses we are talking about.
OKI-DOKI, fair enuff... Again, I don't really know much about all this technical mumbo-jumbo, so let's not talk about all this WS2a and "splashing" stuff.
I am trying to get to the bottom of how exactly you claim you can make money. Basically, you're saying that your forecasts are often wrong, but the method is viable because you're up? If that's accurate, this doesn't inspire any confidence, y'know? Have you tried calculating any of your performance metrics, such as Sharpe etc? Just looking at the GBPCHF trade, are you telling me you were happy to take a 284 pip drawdown (on your first clip) for a 284 pip gain? And there are no stops in sight, right?
What are the the "respective reviews" you want me to read, exactly? Moreover, judging by your signature (which should, ideally, summarize your approach), there doesn't seem to be a shred of humility in sight. How about changing the last bit to "Just outstanding forecasts, which are often completely erroneous."?
).
