EUR/CHF Spike this morning?

[Martinghoul]

Go long at 1.2965. Watch for momentum. If it is good, then you'll make a grip of pips. If momentum is not good, take profits at that point, then wait for next move DOWN, and get in again. The eventual move UP is giong to be huge.

Erm, why?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Erm, why?

retrace to the 23% fib of the whole move. Duuuuuuuh

 

[4xpipcounter]

The EUR/CHF is getting ready for a huge reversal. The object is to find an entry to take advantage of this. My MS2 (2nd monthly support ) is 1.2971. The bottom of the CE is 1.2965, so it makes for a nice confluence.
Just in case the entry is wrong, you would know by the velocity and momentum of the move. If it is wrong, then get out. You're still going to make some pips.

Erm, why?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Whats CE?

 

[4xpipcounter]

That was also a very vague statement. Vagueries never cut it in trading. You are never right in trading if you are vague.
I'll take it that was an implication that my entries are vague. Uh, my friend, you're dead wrong, and I can back it up, as always. Go to my thread, and look around, and then tell me how vague I am. Read my Weekly Report on my analysis of 28 pairs and gold, and tell me how vague I am. Read my thread and the documentation of close trades this week alone of over 800 pips, and then tell me my entries are vague.
Yeah, I'm loving it! Better know who you are shooting at before you pull the trigger.
Actually, I made what appeared to be a vague statement in hopes of stirring up some additional dialogue.

'cause, if you're vague about your entries then you're always right!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Cirvilinear envelope.

Whats CE?

 

[Martinghoul]

The EUR/CHF is getting ready for a huge reversal. The object is to find an entry to take advantage of this. My MS2 (2nd monthly support ) is 1.2971. The bottom of the CE is 1.2965, so it makes for a nice confluence.
Just in case the entry is wrong, you would know by the velocity and momentum of the move. If it is wrong, then get out. You're still going to make some pips.

Hold on, let me just get this straight... Given I don't understand all this technical mumbo-jumbo.

You're suggesting I go long at 1.2965 or maybe 1.2971. But the entry might be wrong and then I'll need to get out, based on some sort of an ill-defined criterion that you propose I estimate at the time. And somehow I will make some pips, even if the entry is wrong.

Have I summarized your trade idea more or less accurately? 'Cause if I have, I don't think I could ever thank you enough.

 

[4xpipcounter]

You are right. The original supposition is to be able to get in on what will be (that's definite) a very strong move on the part of the EUR/CHF. It does not mean that circa area will be where the EUR/CHF begins to wing its flight, but fi the entry is wrong, you are still going to make pips, because at the least, the pair is going to bounce from that area. Even if that is not where the big move starts, then you would still make pips, and that is what this game is all about.
Depended on the move in NY, that could also change. In other words, if we get a strong move north in NY, then the dynamic could change. The reaction at at 1.3059 could have a lot to say of the future plight of the pair. That is a pretty strong R, which is also my WS1. The dynamic changes if we get a strong move through.

Hold on, let me just get this straight... Given I don't understand all this technical mumbo-jumbo.

You're suggesting I go long at 1.2965 or maybe 1.2971. But the entry might be wrong and then I'll need to get out, based on some sort of an ill-defined criterion that you propose I estimate at the time. And somehow I will make some pips, even if the entry is wrong.

Have I summarized your trade idea more or less accurately? 'Cause if I have, I don't think I could ever thank you enough.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Actually, I wasn't touchy at all. I just wanted to make a point. I did consider the comment as a challenge, so I addressed it, and enjoyed it. The surprise may have come from the retort to a hasty comment you made. Still, my comment was not meant as anything personal against you. This, to me, is what great dialogue is all about.
If I implied being touchy, I didn't mean to. I have ice in my veins when it comes to work. I have to have that in my approach to trading. I find its necessary in order to continue my success.
I'm open if you want to continue the conversation. I'll also send you my WR if you want.

Getting pretty touchy over nothing mate...

 

[4xpipcounter]

What is "tl dr"?

tl dr

 

[4xpipcounter]

This is a cut-n-paste from my WR for this week:
"EUR/CHF:This pair has now entered the doorway of the new trend. Maximum pullback for the week should be no further than 1.3059, but the 4-hour kijun is preferable at 1.3079. After that, it should be nothing but heading north for this pair. There is lots of R, but then this is going to be a strong UP. I would watch for 1.3214, which is the daily tenken. Once there is a close above that, then 1.3447 could be very tough to get around. Also, look for the area of 1.3334 to be a strong R."

As far as what you mentioned about "ill-defined criterion", I almost sense you had a good laugh over what I said, especially when Waterford would approve your statement. You can be wrong on an entry and still make pips. If you enter at an ideal turning point, then you will get a bounce, if that is all it is, because momentum suggests that, then get out and run with your pips. Wait for the pair to drop to the next level, and then jump back in, ride the bounce, and keep doing it, while making pips, until you get the reversal right. My analysis now suggests the downside chivalry is over with, and the pair is moving UP. I'm right 90% of the time, so let's see if this is the 10%. I got a big mouth, but check my review of last week's analysis on my thread, as it backs up my big mouth.

Hold on, let me just get this straight... Given I don't understand all this technical mumbo-jumbo.

You're suggesting I go long at 1.2965 or maybe 1.2971. But the entry might be wrong and then I'll need to get out, based on some sort of an ill-defined criterion that you propose I estimate at the time. And somehow I will make some pips, even if the entry is wrong.

Have I summarized your trade idea more or less accurately? 'Cause if I have, I don't think I could ever thank you enough.

 

[Martinghoul]

This is a cut-n-paste from my WR for this week:
"EUR/CHF:This pair has now entered the doorway of the new trend. Maximum pullback for the week should be no further than 1.3059, but the 4-hour kijun is preferable at 1.3079. After that, it should be nothing but heading north for this pair. There is lots of R, but then this is going to be a strong UP. I would watch for 1.3214, which is the daily tenken. Once there is a close above that, then 1.3447 could be very tough to get around. Also, look for the area of 1.3334 to be a strong R."

As far as what you mentioned about "ill-defined criterion", I almost sense you had a good laugh over what I said, especially when Waterford would approve your statement. You can be wrong on an entry and still make pips. If you enter at an ideal turning point, then you will get a bounce, if that is all it is, because momentum suggests that, then get out and run with your pips. Wait for the pair to drop to the next level, and then jump back in, ride the bounce, and keep doing it, while making pips, until you get the reversal right. My analysis now suggests the downside chivalry is over with, and the pair is moving UP. I'm right 90% of the time, so let's see if this is the 10%. I got a big mouth, but check my review of last week's analysis on my thread, as it backs up my big mouth.

Yes, sorry, I confess to being sarcastic, but that's because technical analysts like yourself, with your crazy terminology and your random forecasts, really crack me up.

However, let's use this as an opportunity to see how this whole TA thing can help. Now I thought I was waiting for the 1.2971 level to go long, but you're now suggesting there's some sort of a kijun going on at 1.3079. What the heck is a kijun? Can we do without all these crazy things? Should I go long arnd here?

 

[4xpipcounter]

I loaded the 4-hour chart to show you what I mean. The stochastics has a wide mouth pointing straight up. This would indicate that on the 4-hour chart, there is room to still go up.
The 1-hour chart (not posted), is overbought. It is extremely overbought, therefore, what is going to happen is called a correction, or another term is "retracement". That strong run UP that ended the week needs to be corrected. I mentioned the 1.3059 level, because that is probably where is it going to correct to. The ideal spot is 1.3079, because that is the 4-hour kijun (The red line that was jagged going DOWN that leveled off.). The reason it is ideal, is that if 1.3059 is hit, then 1.3079 could possibly act as resistance and impeded the flow going back UP.
The kijun is one of the indicators that comes from the icimoku cloud. It is a Japanese indicator that many Japanese use as a standalone.
Originally, we were waiting for 1.2971 to go long, but price action never returned to that point. Seeing this uptrend is going to have a strong leg, the object now is to fins another place to get in. That "other" place is now 1.3079 or 1.3059.
All technical traders have their own arsenal of technical indicators they use. It is what they base their trades on. I happen to use the ichimoku cloud, a proprietary set of supports and resistances, along with the stochastics and 200 MA. that is the combination that has served me best. Therefore, to answer your question, we cannot do without all these "crazy" things. It's these things that make a living for me.
There is also nothing random about forecasts, provided they have some accuracy to them. The markets follow a mathematical ebb and flow that becomes predictable when the right forecasting methods are used. Respectfully, when someone says the markets are random, they do not know what they are talking about.
I also mentioned the "right forecasting methods". As far as forecasting goes and the application, thereof, "right" is only depended on the individual that is doing the forecasting. As long as that method is right, then it is right for that individual. If it is wrong, then it is wrong for that individual. Using the ichimoku cloud may be wrong for you, but it is right for me. Using the Elliot Wave is wrong for me, but right for someone else. The reason my method is right for me is because it produces success for me, and again, that can be proven, along with this mathematical ebb and flow I told you about by clicking on my thread and seeing for yourself. Also, before the day is out, my Weekly Report will be posted on my thread. You can for yourself by following that report throughout the week, not the excellency of my reporting, but the price action flow of what I have been talking about.
No need to apologize for your sarcasm. Even it challenges me. I also may leave myself open to some of it by some bold statements that I made, as an example, it seemed I came out of the blue with the 1.2971 number. I enjoy good dialogue and that kind of statement encourages that kind of thing.

Yes, sorry, I confess to being sarcastic, but that's because technical analysts like yourself, with your crazy terminology and your random forecasts, really crack me up.

However, let's use this as an opportunity to see how this whole TA thing can help. Now I thought I was waiting for the 1.2971 level to go long, but you're now suggesting there's some sort of a kijun going on at 1.3079. What the heck is a kijun? Can we do without all these crazy things? Should I go long arnd here?

 

[Martinghoul]

Well, whatever floats your boat, man... Horses for courses and all that. None of this technical mumbo-jumbo works for me, whether it's kijun and his best friend Mr. Ichimoku, some crazy Elliot Wave or DeMark bollox.

As to your conceptual argument about "proving" success and the "mathematical ebb and flow", I have yet to see a rigorous, unbiased and non-anecdotal demonstration of the power of technical analysis mumbo-jumbo. I am sad to say that your thread only reinforces my conviction that the best proof technical analysts can come up with is along the lines of "but look, it works..." That, my friend, ain't proof in my book, that's survivorship bias.

At any rate, let's not ignite this tired old debate again. My mind is open to new experiences. I am ready to listen to the advice of Mssrs. Kijun and Ichimoku. Tell me what to do, I'm ready to put money on the table.

 

[MrGecko]

He had me at "Cirvilinear [sic] envelope".

 

[4xpipcounter]

How do you determine an entry into your trades? There has to be some kind of system you use. There has to be a reason you are in this forum.
My analysis has to be unbiased in order for me to trade my analysis and continue to make a living off it. If you follow the analysis, then that is part of the proof. My success is the other part. If it works consistently, then that is unarguable.
At this point we can let it die, referring to our debate, but I'll nibble at the bait if you want to say I have a mere "survivorship bias."

Well, whatever floats your boat, man... Horses for courses and all that. None of this technical mumbo-jumbo works for me, whether it's kijun and his best friend Mr. Ichimoku, some crazy Elliot Wave or DeMark bollox.

As to your conceptual argument about "proving" success and the "mathematical ebb and flow", I have yet to see a rigorous, unbiased and non-anecdotal demonstration of the power of technical analysis mumbo-jumbo. I am sad to say that your thread only reinforces my conviction that the best proof technical analysts can come up with is along the lines of "but look, it works..." That, my friend, ain't proof in my book, that's survivorship bias.

At any rate, let's not ignite this tired old debate again. My mind is open to new experiences. I am ready to listen to the advice of Mssrs. Kijun and Ichimoku. Tell me what to do, I'm ready to put money on the table.

 

[Martinghoul]

How do you determine an entry into your trades? There has to be some kind of system you use. There has to be a reason you are in this forum.
My analysis has to be unbiased in order for me to trade my analysis and continue to make a living off it. If you follow the analysis, then that is part of the proof. My success is the other part. If it works consistently, then that is unarguable.
At this point we can let it die, referring to our debate, but I'll nibble at the bait if you want to say I have a mere "survivorship bias."

I don't have a system... If I were to do a trade like this, it would be part of a portfolio, i.e. it might be mispriced against smth else. Or it's can be a pure macro bet, based on my view on the two economies.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I hope it is working for you. That is the bottom line is to trade profitably, regardless of the system.

I don't have a system... If I were to do a trade like this, it would be part of a portfolio, i.e. it might be mispriced against smth else. Or it's can be a pure macro bet, based on my view on the two economies.

 

[DEC]

Hold on, let me just get this straight... Given I don't understand all this technical mumbo-jumbo.

You're suggesting I go long at 1.2965 or maybe 1.2971. But the entry might be wrong and then I'll need to get out, based on some sort of an ill-defined criterion that you propose I estimate at the time. And somehow I will make some pips, even if the entry is wrong.

Have I summarized your trade idea more or less accurately? 'Cause if I have, I don't think I could ever thank you enough.

I believe this is a very exciting week for the EURCHF and I saw that there is a forum to discuss it. 1.2971 was dead accurate to catch this reversal. Hope everyone makes some pips this week as well

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I believe this is a very exciting week for the EURCHF

How come? Why more exciting than any other crosses?