ES Trading

[new_trader]

Gold stocks are rallying, which isn't a bad thing because I added a few more to my portfolio when they were cheap. However I've seen this price action before with gold stocks and gold just before a Central Bank meeting. The ECB and the BOE are meeting and will make their announcements tomorrow, Thursday 5th July 2012.

The market appears to be anticipating further easing but I am sceptical. I think they are going to carry on the pretence that everything is O.K for the moment but that they stand ready to act just in case...or whatever.


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Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying

Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying - Bloomberg

“Governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist -- with strict and effective conditionality,” Draghi said

Central Planners...

 

[new_trader]

the only thing that is infinite is a Governments ability to debase fiat money...!!!

"the price of gold and equities have been rising and falling almost in harmony with one another. That tells me that this is a case of inflationary expectations rather than one of real economic recovery. The smart money is putting their wealth into REAL ASSETS that Governments cannot debase."

Pimco's Gross: I'm Leaning Toward Gold Over Bonds

Pimco's Gross: I'm Leaning Toward Gold Over Bonds: Video - Bloomberg

Gold certainly isn't acting like it was a bubble despite the concerted attempts to talk down gold by all the "gold is a bubble" freaks in trade2win and in the mainstream media. Although it is premature to say for sure right now, gold will have to fall below US$1000 in the next two to three weeks for it to have been classed as a bubble otherwise it would be one of the most unique bubbles in the history of human civilization. If that doesn’t happen then all the deflationists and “gold is a bubble" freaks have lost the last remnants of credibility they currently have, even though IMO they have been clueless since the start of the Global financial crisis...and before.

As each day passes so too does the chance of a deflationary scenario. George Soros is telling the Germans to get busy inflating, now that he has all the gold he wants I suppose! It makes no difference what Ben Bernanke says on Thursday September 13 because Gold is saying to me, "going up". There will be the usual gyrations but the fundamentals are still intact.

Central Planners can delay the inevitable and make themselves sound intelligent with their twists and sterilizations, but they really amount to nothing more than a Rube Goldberg method of debt monetization and currency debasement.





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[new_trader]

Gold

Nouriel Roubini's view on Gold

"[Gold] has gone up so much that significant further increases are unlikely"
Nouriel Roubini - September 7, 2012

Gold 07/09/2012: Open: 1,696.70, Close: 1,737.10

Today: 1731.30 @ 13:04 BST

Don't forget: 04/11/2009 · Nouriel Roubini said “Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense”

Roubini Says Rogers’s $2,000 Gold ‘Utter Nonsense’ (Update1)








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[new_trader]

new_trader says, "Gold $3000!"

 

[new_trader]

Politics

Rich-Poor Gap Widens to Most Since 1967 as Income Falls

Rich-Poor Gap Widens to Most Since 1967 as Income Falls - Bloomberg

The 46.2 million people living in poverty remained at the highest level in the 53 years since the Census Bureau has been collecting that statistic.

This is what you get when Socialism "saves" Capitalism.

The Central Planners will conclude there is not enough Socialism...





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[new_trader]

Q.E3 or Q.E Unlimited

I find it tricky trying to read the market around Roll over time. However there isn’t anything that causes me to think this rally is over, meaning that Ben Bernanke is unlikely to disappoint the market. I just saw an interview on Bloomberg and I think I agree with the analyst.

Basically, the question is not whether Ben Bernanke is going to provide more cheap money, I think the real question is:

Will it be Q.E3 or Q.E Unlimited?​

If it is Q.E3 then I don’t think the market is going to react much at all, as it looks like a lot of this rally has already factored in some of it. Q.E Unlimited will be a different story though.

I could be wrong, but nothing else would makes sense of what I’m seeing. The real surprise would be the FED doing nothing, which I doubt. This would cause a reaction in the market that IMO would only be temporary. The election is getting close and I’m convinced Obama is twisting Ben Bernanke’s arm to get him to make him look good. I think Ben Bernanke wants to keep his job as well and he has more chance of doing that under Obama.






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[new_trader]

Bank of England | Publications | News Releases | Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and increases size of Asset Purchase Programme by £50 billion to £375 billion

Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and increases size of Asset Purchase Programme by £50 billion to £375 billion







And in Europe....


ECB Cuts Benchmark Rate to Record Low of 0.75%, Deposit to Zero

ECB Cuts Main Rate to Record Low, Deposit Rate to Zero - Bloomberg






The U.S will be next, you can Bernanke on it!


Once you pop, you just can't stop! Gold stocks are higher again today.

Fed Plans to Buy $40 Billion in Mortgage Securities a Month

Fed Plans to Buy $40 Billion in Mortgage Securities a Month - Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve said it will expand its holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month in a bid to boost growth and reduce unemployment.

The FOMC said it would likely hold the federal funds rate near zero “at least through mid-2015.” Since January, the Fed had said the rate was likely to stay low at least through late 2014. The Fed said “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.”

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[new_trader]

Gold certainly isn't acting like it was a bubble despite the concerted attempts to talk down gold by all the "gold is a bubble" freaks in trade2win and in the mainstream media. Although it is premature to say for sure right now, gold will have to fall below US$1000 in the next two to three weeks for it to have been classed as a bubble otherwise it would be one of the most unique bubbles in the history of human civilization. If that doesn’t happen then all the deflationists and “gold is a bubble" freaks have lost the last remnants of credibility they currently have, even though IMO they have been clueless since the start of the Global financial crisis...and before.

Gold (GCV2) @ 1775.90

This means two things as far as I am concerned:

(1) GAME OVER for the Deflationists. You’ve lost.

(2) This is going to be the boldest statement I make about Gold: Anyone who has been waiting on the sidelines to buy ‘cheap’ gold, your opportunity to buy below $US1600.00 has passed possibly forever but at least for a very long time (5+ years).



Gold $3000!








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[new_trader]

Ron Paul and the FED

Ron Paul is THE GOLD STANDARD in Politics & Economics.


Ron Paul: We're Creating New Money Out of Thin Air: Video - Bloomberg






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[new_trader]

Currency Wars

BOJ Follows Fed to Bolster Stimulus as Growth Falters

BOJ Follows Fed to Bolster Stimulus as Growth Falters - Bloomberg

“Whether central banks intend it or not, there is a competition for loosening monetary policy around the world,” said Izuru Kato, chief market economist in Tokyo at Totan Research Co. and one of the analysts who forecast easing. Shirakawa doesn’t want to be seen as “reluctant to compete in the race” because of the risk of yen gains that will hurt the economy, Kato said.

The currency wars continue. It is a race to the bottom in which the holders of paper fiat rubbish will lose and unfortunately they are the poor and the middle class.

Those who say paper money is superior to gold and subscribe to the idea that a “Central Bank have control of the money supply is a massive advantage” I hope you are impoverished by your beliefs, but I would say that you are in fact hypocrites and only want others to keep the worthless notes that you ostensibly worship.

Only in an Orwellian world does a strong currency hurt the economy.






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[new_trader]

Argentina inflation: shoot the messenger

Argentina inflation: shoot the messenger | beyondbrics

Do you honestly think that it's only the Argentine government that manipulates and understates inflation figures?


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Pension returns at risk as inflation change mulled

Pension returns at risk as inflation change mulled | Reuters

Aligning the long-standing RPI more closely to the newer CPI could save cash-strapped Chancellor George Osborne 3 billion pounds a year in debt interest payments, but risks alienating bondholders.

The Central Planners tell us there isn’t any inflation but they want to change the way it’s calculated to save them money while impoverishing everyone else. And there are numbskulls in this forum who think it is the free market Capitalists who are greedy! Look at what Government is doing to you and everyone else!




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[new_trader]

I agree and that is why I think there hasn’t been much public participation in the stock market since the global financial crisis began. In regard to your view about the dollar and deflation, I think gold is replacing the dollar as the ‘flight to quality’ asset. The 5 day change for the S&P500 is (-2.2%), the dollar index is (-1.56%) and gold is +1.2%. As for the US raising interest rates, it will only make a difference if real interest rates are positive and is that likely to happen? The USA looks like it might lapse into another recession and has the FED ever tightened when the economy is that weak?

As far as deflation is concerned, when priced in real money (i.e. gold) there has already been deflation. In March 2009 when the stock market reached its lowest point the S&P500 was worth around 0.72 ounces of gold and today the S&P500 is worth about 0.84 ounces of gold, so the S&P500 hasn’t gained much in the last few years, 10 years ago the S&P500 was worth around 4.5 ounces of gold! If you compare the gold to S&P500 ratio from 1950 up until 1971 when the USA was on a gold standard you will notice that whenever the S&P500 costs less than an ounce of gold it is ‘cheap’ in relative terms. It is up to you to determine where you believe those ratios will meet.

Speculating is great fun!

This is what the deflationists don't understand. The ratio is currently 0.823 (1449.00/1761.10), in other words, priced in real money there has been ZERO economic growth when measured by the S&P500...in fact...it has been slightly negative growth!


Sep 6, 2012 - 5:00 -

Lehrman Institute chairman Lewis Lehrman on returning to the gold standard.
Would a Gold Standard Encourage Investment and Saving?

"Under the Gold Standard the American economy grew at 4% compounded annually from the birth of the republic practically right up to 1971"

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[new_trader]

Clegg Says U.K. Can Tax Rich More on Capital Gains, Property
Clegg Says U.K. Can Tax Rich More on Capital Gains, Property - Bloomberg

“We will not allow some of these vile suggestions that have been made from the right of British politics that all the savings should be made from welfare,”

Of course not you vile Socialists! You think it is much fairer to plunder more money from those who pay taxes TO Government and give it to those who take tax money FROM Government...Sad, pathetic, vile, welfare state Britain...buying votes with taxpayer money...

"Nothing is more calculated to make a demagogue popular than a constantly reiterated demand for heavy taxes on the rich. Capital levies and high income taxes on the larger incomes are extraordinarily popular with the masses, who do not have to pay them."
-Ludwig von Mises





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[new_trader]

Gold is Money!

Gold Traders More Bullish as Holdings Reach Record: Commodities

Gold Traders More Bullish as Holdings Reach Record: Commodities - Bloomberg

“More and more people are going to anticipate inflation in the future because of quantitative easing and the amount of debt we’ve got in the system,” said Frederique Dubrion, the Geneva- based president and chief investment officer of Blue Star Advisors SA, which manages metals and energy assets. “We can print whatever amount of money we need, but you can’t print gold. It’s nobody’s liability, it’s a hard currency.”

I don't determine whether I buy or sell directly on sentiment in the mainstream media. But the important thing to note is what is being said about Gold Vs Managed currencies. More and more people will realise that gold is real money, hard money...SOUND MONEY!





Another hearing on money, chaired by Congressman Ron Paul who is The Gold Standard in Politics and Economics.


Hearing on the Price of Money Sept 21, 2012

Hearing on the Price of Money Sept 21, 2012 - YouTube

United States House of Representatives
Committee on Financial Services
Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy
Hearing on
"The Price of Money: Consequences of the Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy"
September 21, 2012






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[new_trader]

The News

Why only FOOLS and AMETUERS trade the “NEWS”.


Reuters:Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:30pm EDT
Gold up with riskier assets, snaps four-day decline
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-markets-precious-idUSBRE89803620121011

"Gold is very much moving in line with other riskier assets, and any type of healthy economic data goes a long way to boost demand for gold and other riskier assets," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.

Reuters:Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:39pm EDT
Gold on track for biggest weekly loss in two months
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-markets-precious-idUSBRE89803620121012

(Reuters) - Gold eased on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly loss in two months as better U.S. consumer sentiment and improved jobs data stirred worries that the Federal Reserve might withdraw its bullion-friendly stimulus sooner than expected.

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[new_trader]

Inflation

Osborne price plea to energy firms
Osborne price plea to energy firms - UK News - MSN News UK

"But of course I'm concerned when I see electricity bills going up and partly that is because of things beyond our control - what's happening in the world with oil prices and gas prices.

So, how is everyone enjoying the inflation that Central Planners around the world aren’t creating...apparently!...

Dumbass Chancellor George Osborne is pleading to to wrong people, he ought to be looking in the mirror...

...the debasement of fiat money continues....





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[new_trader]

Market and portfolio update

This was my forecast 6 months ago. Although the market rallied from the lows it fell short of the 1400 level I was anticipating. However, I think the rally will continue in 2012 but not because the US economy is improving... far from it. There will be the odd piece of ‘positive’ data here and there but they belie the fundamental problems that politicians have failed to correct and whose policies continue to undermine any real chance of recovery. This is US Presidential election year (Vote RON PAUL!!) so IMO there will be a herculean effort to fool the public into believing everything is O.K and the market will react accordingly. I’ve seen many people in this forum buy into the ‘positive’ NEWS so if allegedly intelligent operators can be so easily fooled by politicians then so can the uninformed public.

[edited]

My opinion hasn’t changed since this post back in January. I still remain LONG on Stocks and Precious metals. I added more Physical Gold and Silver to my portfolio in the last few weeks. The ES is currently at 1448.50 and according to my figuring there should be a breakout to the upside in the next few weeks and I think it will hit 1500.00 by the end of 2012. There has been a lot of negative NEWS recently both for Stocks and Gold but IMO it was an effort to shakeout the weak hands. The truth behind the action is a different story and IMO it is indicating an advance. Don’t forget, the US Federal Reserve has created $US40 Billion out of thin air in the last month with another $US40 Billion just around the corner! The debasement of fiat money continues....


This is just my opinion, as always, do your own research!







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[new_trader]

Rising Prices

Rising rents 'pushing more in debt'
Rising rents 'pushing more in debt' - Title1

So how is everyone enjoying the rising prices? I suppose we should thank our wonderful Central Planners for defeating that nasty deflation bogeyman...

But they still don't think there is enough inflation...meanwhile in the REAL world

PepsiCo Profit Tops Analysts’ Estimates Amid Price Increases

PepsiCo Profit Tops Analysts

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), the world’s largest snack-food maker, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as it boosted prices.

Global drink sales volumes, excluding the effects of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign- currency fluctuations, grew 1 percent as snack volume jumped 3 percent. Pricing jumped 4 percent, PepsiCo said.

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[new_trader]

Reuters would have you believe that gold is falling because of an improving economy and Bloomberg is reporting that stocks and commodities (including gold) fell today because some companies posted results below estimates, euro-area leaders failed to discuss aid for Spain at a summit and US housing numbers were weak.

All this before the FED meets early next week...what are the markets expecting Bernanke to say? “Everything is great, turn those printing presses off and let’s party like it’s 1999”

The market looks poised for a further sell off reminiscent of the 1987 crash, but I suspect the markets are just capitalising on the fear, being the 25th anniversary of the biggest crash in History...I could be wrong and there could actually be a crash next week...but I suspect Obama is on the phone to Bernanke this minute while he is online shopping for more ink...

My target for the ES remains unchanged at 1500 by the year’s end 2012, however next week may alter my view. I still remain long stocks and PM's because IMO any further falls will be a buying opportunity.







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[new_trader]

Gold stocks are rallying, which isn't a bad thing because I added a few more to my portfolio when they were cheap. However I've seen this price action before with gold stocks and gold just before a Central Bank meeting. The ECB and the BOE are meeting and will make their announcements tomorrow, Thursday 5th July 2012.

The market appears to be anticipating further easing but I am sceptical. I think they are going to carry on the pretence that everything is O.K for the moment but that they stand ready to act just in case...or whatever.



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King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades
King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades - Bloomberg

“At this stage, it is difficult to know whether some of the recent more positive signs will persist,” King said in a speech late yesterday in Cardiff, Wales. “Should those signs fade, the MPC does stand ready to inject more money into the economy.”

The Central Planners keep standing around while the phoney economy they have created crumbles around them...There is no recovery coming, there never was...

The debasement of fiat money continues and new_trader stands ready to buy more gold.









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