ES tonight

[timsk]

fkkk me, I hate trying to trade on Mondays; what a krap session I've just had
short now at 1141, lets see what happens before i hit the sack

Never mind r_e, better luck tomorrow!
Tim.
P.S. Apologies if you've addressed this earlier in the thread (it's yonks since I read it and I can't remember) - do you use market internals at all and, if so, which ones and how etc.?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Tim,
for internals I use $Tick in pretty much the way John Carter teaches how to use it.
I also use pit audio, Ben Lichtenstein's live commentary.

yesterday I thought that the day was done, so I put on a final Short and went to bed.
Imagine how pissed off this morning to see the Long from 1044 was triggered instead.
Would have helped me to add to Longs from Weekly 1039

I hate it when there is too much contradictory convergence of buy/sell daily/weekly triggers.
Although I have tried to trade them separately and independently, I am slowly coming to the conclusion that I should forget the Daily in these cases and just focus on the weeklies, particularly on Mondays

garry

 

[elitejets]

Garry have you noticed this?
If it makes a third measured move then the pullback would be to the fib level at 1128-1130 and the projected new high is 1199-1201. Pattern is called "three drives".
FTSE has the same pattern.
Charts aren't up to date because I made them last night.
Just a possibility anyhow.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

thanks for your post.
Yes, I was more than half expecting pull back to continue in order to try to spring load a subsequent move through Resistance at 1150

garry

 

[timsk]

for internals I use $Tick in pretty much the way John Carter teaches how to use it.
I also use pit audio, Ben Lichtenstein's live commentary.

Cheers Garry - I'm a fan of $TICK too.

 

[robster970]

Garry have you noticed this?
If it makes a third measured move then the pullback would be to the fib level at 1128-1130 and the projected new high is 1199-1201. Pattern is called "three drives".
FTSE has the same pattern.
Charts aren't up to date because I made them last night.
Just a possibility anyhow.

I had a rough day too yesterday. Was looking for a pullback to go long and my gap and swing trade just ended up getting stopped out on the move downwards.

What caught my attention though was the 'shape' of the move - I refer to it as a sharks fin, remember it catching my eye on 7th January this year when something similar happened and I attribute it to price discovery when fundamental values are uncertain, this weekend being a case in point after mixed reaction on Chinese news.

I should have known better really. Incidentally the 7th Jan move was the precursor of attempts that led to the January highs where it then range traded for about a week.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

i know it's still early in the session and there's still plenty more downside potential, but just wanted to share a snap for those who doubt the significance of Pivot Points -
even in the midst of a "crisis", with markets selling off >3%, look how well PPs hold up:

The pink coloured Camarilla S4 is my usual breakdown sell trigger, but look how well the FTP S2 holds up as an extreme (& target) and where the market, if not bouncing, has certainly taken a breather......

 

[rathcoole_exile]

if price does break down through FTPS2,
the next Pivot level is at around 1013 that would be a helluva drop and create worldwide panic wouldn't it ?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

so i wonder whether another bounce of FTP-S2 might be on the cards shortly .... ?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

if price does break down through FTPS2,
the next Pivot level is at around 1013

sorry, that's nonsense, there's still the 1065 level from 2 weeks ago that may be tested,
so if FTP-S2 doesn't hold, I'll try to grab a quick 5 points from a resting Short Stop Entry @ 1070, then see what happens

 

[rathcoole_exile]

so i wonder whether another bounce of FTP-S2 might be on the cards shortly .... ?

well the FTP-S2 served as a barrier on another two tests before giving way to the almost inevitable test of 1065.......

 

[pboyles]

well the FTP-S2 served as a barrier on another two tests before giving way to the almost inevitable test of 1065.......

Are these levels the same as what you are using? I understand you use weekly pivots, R1, S1, is that right? I just stuck the weekly 'classic' pivots on my FTSE chart and they gave some good levels.

http://www.mypivots.com/dn/

http://www.mypivots.com/dn/?symbol=289

 

[rathcoole_exile]

it's only a matter of personal prefernce, the results aren't significantly differnt in either case, but I tend to usually use the Camarilla calculation, rather than the traditional FTP.
So the important levels are Camarilla R3,R4, S3, S4
but I do find that the FTP R2 and S2 tend to be the outer reaches of any breakaway movement out beyond Cam R4,S4

 

[rathcoole_exile]

for the week ahead, w/c 080811,
my focus will be on:
1278.25
1238
(1223.5)
1157
1117.25


(futures)

 

[rathcoole_exile]

S&P500 (cash) triggers:
1276
1237.68
(1225)
1161
1123

I can’t see any stop to this slide, but short-term (Monday/Tuesday) there might be a bounce higher off 1161 as people take profits etc.
The Kijun line (blue) has gone flat above price at <a>. A flat Kijun tends to act as a magnet to pull price back towards equilibrium
But the flat Kijun is more or less in line with the bottom of the Kumo Cloud <b> at around 1190, so if price does get that high, I’d be looking for Kumo Cloud to act as Resistance and turn price back downwards

Interestingly, the Market Profile Value Area Low for Monday reinforces the idea that the lower Span of the Kumo Cloud will prove to be tough Resistance to break through.
But if price can close into the Cloud, then theory is that it should travel to the upper Span, which also lines up with Market Profile Value Area High. This in turn lines up with the two previous peaks on the Chikou Span <c>, reinforcing the notion that price may travel no higher.

Of course, price might not bounce and will continue to drop, which would be very nice as I’m currently in an open short trade now…..

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I’ve also attached a 4 hour timeframe for a bigger picture, but can’t see any positive signs for the Bulls there either….

 

[DionysusToast]

Where is the real Rathcoole?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

the new version likes lots of coloured squiggly lines !!!

 

[DionysusToast]

Nope - I'm not buying it. I want to know where Rath is or I'm calling in the DSI.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

no seriously, i'm really getting into Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, both as a stand-alone system and especialyy as a confirmation for or against my normal pivot point triggers
i admit that it takes some time to master, but once you've spent enough hours, as I have recently, you can pretty much look at an Ichimoku chart and see instantly the assimilation of the many signals it generates

but know you're too busy being a good dad to have the time for the study required.....not to mentioned being bone idle