Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

BTW, I have quadrupled my account in 4 weeks, so we will see what this week holds...

Last week I was down about 20% but I have held my positions for now and I think I can get out of last weeks positions with a nice profit. I went short EUR_USD, AUD_USD, GBP_USD long USD,CHF and USD_JPY last Thursday and Friday. Right now the EUR_USD is the only pair that looks impulsive down, but even on correction then a C wave can be quite devastating, which is what the AUD_USD and the GBP_USD seem to be in.

 

[JahDave]

USD_CHF update. This pair could go down as low as parity before going up, but it seems right now that it has begun a C wave up to the 1.0260 area.

 

[JahDave]

AUD_USD update. This move down is not impulsive. Although as per my previous post you will see that I stated that a C wave can be very devastating and that is what I think will happen. I am looking for this move down to end at about .9050, which is a 100 pip move down.

 

[JahDave]

I don't have a chart to post up but from my experience trading currency then the eur_aud is getting ready to soar the next few days and I just bought it before posting this.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave! A little absence. Glad to see you back. That was your 1st losing week in a long time, so I'm sure you'll bounce back

 

[JahDave]

Here's a chart for this pair. It actually just bounced of the third line, but my lines don't scale properly with my candles.

 

[JahDave]

Dave! A little absence. Glad to see you back. That was your 1st losing week in a long time, so I'm sure you'll bounce back

Thank you very much Paul and I'm very glad to hear from you as well. I had a lot of family in from three states for the long weekend and really enjoyed it. Anyway, I already got out of my Euro trade for +75, so that was a good start to the week. My Aussie short is coming around and we will see how far down it goes. Unfortunately the move down does not appear to be impulsive, but it could still be a nice move down.

 

[JahDave]

NZD_USD update. This pair is going down as well. Even though the move down will be corrective and not impulsive then it should go down at least 100 pips.

 

[JahDave]

AUD_USD update. This move down is not impulsive. Although as per my previous post you will see that I stated that a C wave can be very devastating and that is what I think will happen. I am looking for this move down to end at about .9050, which is a 100 pip move down.

Look at the size of the wicks on the next to last candle. Even though everyone wants this pair to keep going up because they are making money on this pair then lots of other people think that this pair has gone up too much and they think it is a bargain to sell right now. If you read my previous posts then you will see that I sold at the end of last week, but I usually get in early.

 

[JahDave]

The AUD_USD has satisfied a complete wave count up, and it is at the top line of the band indicator, and the modified stochastic and fractal indicator is showing sell. Momentum could carry it a little farther up, but this run is almost out of steam, so it should be headed back down very soon to at least the .8900 level

 

[4xpipcounter]

I disagree 100%. Just kidding.
I did go short.

The AUD_USD has satisfied a complete wave count up, and it is at the top line of the band indicator, and the modified stochastic and fractal indicator is showing sell. Momentum could carry it a little farther up, but this run is almost out of steam, so it should be headed back down very soon to at least the .8900 level

 

[JahDave]

This should get the USD moving up..........

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Japanese government said Friday it will intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed to curb a rise in the yen that it warns could disrupt the economy and financial conditions.
"A rapid or prolonged strengthening in the yen is a problem that cannot be overlooked, given its negative impact on the stability of the economy and financial conditions," the government said in a statement accompanying an announcement of a Y915 billion stimulus package to support the economy.
"The government will take decisive steps, including interventions, when necessary," the government said.
The government also kept the heat on the Bank of Japan to do more to stop consumer price deflation, which has ravaged Japan's economy on and off for years, hindering any sustainable recovery.
The government said it will keep in close contact with the central bank with the aim of conquering deflation, adding that it expects "appropriate and flexible" monetary policy management to support Japan's economy.


-By Juro Osawa, Dow Jones Newswires; +81-3-6269-2794; [email protected]

 

[JahDave]

I have a charting change for the EUR_AUD. Since it broke below the 1.3924 that rules out a wave two correction, so now the most likely scenario will be a flat as drawn out on my chart before one more impulse wave down.

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the Kiwi has made several gaps in the last leg up that are probably exhaustion gaps meaning this the last gasp up.

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the Kiwi has made several gaps in the last leg up that are probably exhaustion gaps meaning this the last gasp up.

It also has a gap on the 1 hour chart that is less common than the 5 minute chart.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, my "practical target" for the week was .7300, which was hit an hour ago.
It's hush about the EUR/AUD, or at least until I have to face it on my Weekly Review-- lol.

It looks like the Kiwi has made several gaps in the last leg up that are probably exhaustion gaps meaning this the last gasp up.

 

[JahDave]

Dave, my "practical target" for the week was .7300, which was hit an hour ago.
It's hush about the EUR/AUD, or at least until I have to face it on my Weekly Review-- lol.

I think the EUR_AUD has already begun it's march upward.

 

[4xpipcounter]

If I miss the turning point by a leg or 2, a blow up ensues. That is why I have actually been watching this matter.

I think the EUR_AUD has already begun it's march upward.

 

[JahDave]

The AUD_USD has satisfied a complete wave count up, and it is at the top line of the band indicator, and the modified stochastic and fractal indicator is showing sell. Momentum could carry it a little farther up, but this run is almost out of steam, so it should be headed back down very soon to at least the .8900 level

Let me just say that I don't recommend this to anyone, but I just sold another lot of Aussie. It has definitely gone higher than I thought it should but it now has the opening gap that should be closed tonight and it has made an extended wave pattern, so therefore it will be making a major move down soon.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Be careful. You're hanging around me too long--lol.

Let me just say that I don't recommend this to anyone, but I just sold another lot of Aussie. It has definitely gone higher than I thought it should but it now has the opening gap that should be closed tonight and it has made an extended wave pattern, so therefore it will be making a major move down soon.