Election Predictions

[N Rothschild]

Ok, who is going to win?

i think lib dems might sneak this one!

if labour wins this, im actually leaving the country. whats scary is a few folk who i know who are not that bright are voting labour because brown has taken the UK out of recession etc...frightening..

i think if labour wins this, cable is gona get smashed big time

 

[meanreversion]

Labour support never seems to dip below 28 pct, it's fairly staggering. It doesn't matter what Brown and his henchmen do. One can only assume it's the public sector providing the bedrock of support.

Cameron to get a slim majority of 10.

 

[N Rothschild]

that 28% will be the number of people on benefits who are scared to lose it if labour gets kicked out

 

[meanreversion]

There are 5 million people on benefits in this country, watch and see how they react when you take their beer money away. At the moment they are being controlled with cheap booze. What happens when they sober up and are forced to work for a living .... crime and riots will ensue

 

[Trader333]

whats scary is a few folk who i know who are not that bright are voting labour because brown has taken the UK out of recession etc...frightening..

But he hasn't taken us out has he ?

Also Cameron will be lucky if he gets a majority of 2 let alone 10. If Labour win outright then Cable will be fine, it is if we have a hung parliament that it will collapse in my view and if we do then in less than year we will all be voting again.


Paul

 

[squall321]

if labour wins this, im actually leaving the country.

Paul daniels said that in 1997.

 

[meanreversion]

Labour aren't going to win, relax ..

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Don't think the LibDems can win, but this piece from Will Hutton was interesting:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/02/nick-clegg-prime-minister-hutton

If Labour is wise, it will usher Nick Clegg into Downing Street

After a calamitous campaign, Gordon Brown must go. To maintain a grip on power, the party has only one option

I'll be fascinated to see what happens in some of the traditional Labour seats in East London like the one where my daughter now lives. In the old days, you would only have had to weigh the Labour vote there not count it. But now it seems the LibDems are in serious contention.

Where I live in leafy Oxfordshire on the other hand, the seat has been LibDem since 1997; formerly very Tory, albeit with different boundaries. However, the Tories won all the county seats round here last time, there are Tory posters where there weren't before, and privately, some of the LibDem activists I know are pessimistic, so this could well go Tory again.

EDIT: Mind you, the LibDems are supposed to be targetting a currently Labour-held adjoining seat; the way things are they probably ought to concentrate on defending seats against the Tories than attacking Labour.

 

[robster970]

Paul daniels said that in 1997.

Debbie didn't want to leave though and you know how much he loves her.

 

[N Rothschild]

But he hasn't taken us out has he ?

Also Cameron will be lucky if he gets a majority of 2 let alone 10. If Labour win outright then Cable will be fine, it is if we have a hung parliament that it will collapse in my view and if we do then in less than year we will all be voting again.


Paul

hung parliament is priced in IMO, everyone already thinks that is the outcome.

 

[Trader333]

The best possible result for Labour is a Hung parliament between the Tories and LibDems. That way when all the cuts come in resulting in everyone hating them and then the coalition collapses it will be the perfect scenario for Labour to get back in with a large majority.


Paul

 

[Hilarymannah]

It doesn't matter who gets in,..policy is dictated from outside the paradigm of most voters.
Public perception and reality are two entirely separate constructs,..
And I'm guessing only a small percentage of folk who read this post actually get it !

 

[Mr Flibble]

It doesn't matter who gets in,..policy is dictated from outside the paradigm of most voters.
Public perception and reality are two entirely separate constructs,..
And I'm guessing only a small percentage of folk who read this post actually get it !

Translation of post... Look at me I'm so smart I naturally assume I'm in the top percentile of sheeple. You'd be in the ranks of congratulating the emperors on his new clothes.

 

[Hilarymannah]

Mr Flibble,..

I wouldn't say one has to be smart to see the world as it is,....just more aware, maybe,...
I like your translation though,..says a lot about you ! : )

 

[Ambrose Ackroyd]

David Chameleon and the Conservatories will win.

As I mentioned somewhere else I am voting New Conservatory because my old one is leaking and the wind blows off in a strong wind.

So I am looking to Mr Chameleon to provide tax breaks for New Conservatories.

 

[bbmac]

you heard it here first

This is how it will finish (!?)

(grey is 'other')

 

[Ambrose Ackroyd]

If that is the case then my new conservatory will be at the mercy of child-eater Clegg.

 

[shadowninja]

i think if labour wins this, cable is gona get smashed big time

Is Vince an alcoholic, then?

 

[Sunshine On Leith]

hung parliament is priced in IMO, everyone already thinks that is the outcome.

Tricky one.

A hung parliment SHOULD be priced as that seems to be the general expectation on the street, but actual positioning is extremely light going so I think cable is still susceptible to a selloff if a hung aprliment is confirmed.

Also, as the FT has picked up on today, fixed income markets seem to be betting on a clear Tory victory.

One to avoid I think.

 

[gooseman]

market positioned for tories, polls hung.

cameron surprise majority.