E-Mini SP 500

[Xymox]

There have been a few of these expanding patterns (roughly defined) over the last few days. All have resolved to downside. Can lightning strike again is $64k question.

if you look at the daily chart, the chart implies we bust through the highs and make new highs from past price patterns, this type of distrubutive pattern you posted is very characteristic of ES, it could progress higher or lower, but what seems to be more probable is we have to test 1552 in the future. At that point, MM's can decide what course to take, but easiest course is to fade the macro economic implications of the reports. Since retail will be looking at the reports to short it, they can just swing it higher and higher and kill everyones stops before bringing it down.

the other question becomes, why even bring it down?...

 

[Xymox]

probability implications of daily chart

 

[Xymox]

one of the things that can bring it down are poor earnings, or a banking crisis. And we wont know till it starts. So far earnings have been overall good.

 

[Xymox]

here is another probability outlook, the MA's during a bear market crossed.

 

[Xymox]

same outlook but look when they crossed upward, right when the bear market was over.

 

[Xymox]

so what market is it currently based on the MA's?

..its a bull market.

 

[Xymox]

Going to be flying out in 7 hrs.

the key to success is protecting your capital, more so then looking to make a profit. This can only be done, when blatantly obvious trades unfold on the screen. If it takes effort to look for a trade, then the trade has some inherent deficiencies. Protect your capital at all costs. The goal of everyone around you is to take your capital away from you.

learn the tactics how money is 'stolen' from the masses.

 

[Xymox]

this is another possible future for ES, given the severity of the decline, it could unfold as this.

in order for this to happen, recession fears have to plaster the screen, and MM's have to be reflexive/responsive to the media bombardment. Then further price declines can gain momentum. Another banking crisis or insolvent bank could catalyze a situation. I try to look for this in price action, whether there is a hidden/covert seller of epic proportions.

 

[saxon22]

Going to be flying out in 7 hrs.

the key to success is protecting your capital, more so then looking to make a profit. This can only be done, when blatantly obvious trades unfold on the screen. If it takes effort to look for a trade, then the trade has some inherent deficiencies. Protect your capital at all costs. The goal of everyone around you is to take your capital away from you.

learn the tactics how money is 'stolen' from the masses.

This is the best advice I hae received today.
Enjoy yout time off .

 

[Xymox]

This is the best advice I hae received today.
Enjoy yout time off .

the money just becomes a byproduct, when you practice extreme discipline.

goodluck.

 

[saxon22]

See ya next week (maybe on ES????) Would be nice to see you there.

Come on do not make me beg!

 

[saxon22]

Spectre, How is the trip?

 

[Xymox]

I will be selling 52's when we get up there. Weekly highs and lows are inefficiency zones, that should be faded, for a swing trade. A more conservative approach is selling 62's and buying 57's.

=)

board is closed now.

 

[saxon22]

How was your day today man?

 

[Xymox]

How was your day today man?

great, others can continue to post charts and biases in this thread if they wish.

http://www.jetphotosoft.com/web/home/

going to be maintaining own private journal offline.

 

[Xymox]

winter is soon going to be upon us, diminishing light effects leads to psychological/depressive states in broader populations and even traders.

🙂

 

[Xymox]

=)

board is closed now.

not really.

 

[Xymox]

this is another possible future for ES, given the severity of the decline, it could unfold as this.

in order for this to happen, recession fears have to plaster the screen, and MM's have to be reflexive/responsive to the media bombardment. Then further price declines can gain momentum. Another banking crisis or insolvent bank could catalyze a situation. I try to look for this in price action, whether there is a hidden/covert seller of epic proportions.

macro economic gloom can be very deflective.

 

[Xymox]

sometimes looking at the cash chart will show you things that the futures doesn't.

 

[saxon22]

So what do you see? i think we are going down on TH. To tell you the truth,it should not matter all that much to a daytrader. As long as there is decent range and a lot of swings money should be made. However if the market just goes one direction, my account suffers. Until next time