Dow Intraday Charts 9 Aug - 13 Aug

[Bill]

Justyn

Thanks for the post and sentiment. Lets just say it does not stand scrutiny. This is just the latest in a long line of ideas.

As you say the first two trades are somewhat weak. If I were doing this for real I would probably not open two trades simultaneously anyway so there would have only been the A-C run. So I suppose D would have started the next with a close at E.

What worries me more is that it only works, in this format, on a sideways day. If there was a downward trend then it would invariably leave you on the wrong side of the market. If I could devise and indicator to show when the day is upward, downward or sideways then that would help. But I suppose then everyone would be able to win wouldn't they.

Just one further point. If you follow the dow strategy the entry point is on the cross and pullback to the 100ema line. On friday that would have cost you money [if that was all you were looking at] On a trending day that would make you money.

Please remain skeptical Justyn. I've tried a lot of different tactics and they have all ended up in the bin. Just one exception, CM's Dow strategy.

Regards

Bill

PS I do have a chart for thursday as well. Do you want that?

 

[justyn]

Hi Bill,

if you have Thursday's chart handy then it would be useful to see that too.

Let's do some assumption.

Monday next week starts with a 100 point increase.

You don't use the EMA+/-15 strategy but look for the dow to close the gap later in the day or maybe a further rise.

Tuesday should be a consolidation day with the price bouncing above and below the EMA so you trade this strategy but look for signs of a move in the afternoon.

Tuesday turns out to be a sideways day closing very near the opening price so we expect Wednesday to have more movement like Monday.

Lots of assumptions but maybe putting all the factors together you can get an advantage.

Cheers!

Justyn.

 

[Bill]

Attached is the chart for thursday.

Be careful about trying to pre-judge trends days in advance. Not sure it's possible.

Here are a couple of things to think about in terms of a longer term view:

1. Can market sentiment for the day be judged from the 1st hour's trading?

2. Most indicators work [?] in all time frames. Does this one work in all time frames also? For example if we use 1 hour data and associated 100ema and +-15 would it help with the longer term view.

These are questions, not answers. I have not yet had the opportunity to investigate.

Regards

Bill

 

[ChartMan]

All strategies develop from an initial idea. Bill's looks well suited to trading a sideways day, as opposed to sitting in the band waiting for something to give, as per my strategy. My strategy for dealing with action inside the 100MA bands and staying safe is all very well, but boring in the extreme.

 

[justyn]

Monday next week starts with a 100 point increase.

Did I really say that? I wouldn't use your EMA +/-15 strategy today bill

Justyn.