Dow Intraday Charts 9 Aug - 13 Aug

Flipper, yes it could be a bear flag, but that's really only of interest to longer term traders, and less to day traders. For daytraders, it's the channel width that is most important.
 
Q, Thx for the detailed answer. I looked at your link and see that scmagic is still 10 euros per month.
This seems pretty good value compared to Qcharts @ $115 per month!
Rather than get further off topic I'll start a new thread under datafeeds and see if anyone has experience of using the service.
Cheers, hampy
 
For Hampy

hampy said:
Q, Thx for the detailed answer. I looked at your link and see that scmagic is still 10 euros per month.
This seems pretty good value compared to Qcharts @ $115 per month!
Rather than get further off topic I'll start a new thread under datafeeds and see if anyone has experience of using the service.
Cheers, hampy

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=6202&page=3&pp=15&highlight=magic

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/search.php?searchid=112430


http://www.trade2win.com/reviews/product.php?id=15

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/searc...d=516629&sortby=lastpost&sortorder=descending


There you go Hampy - should keep you busy for a while ;)
 
morning all :)

brief attempt to close the gap before a determined sell off until the afternoon?

what do you guys reckon?

am basing this on DC's genesis system....could be way off though.

FC
 
looking good so far :)

first stop 9818 perhaps.

then looking for a bounce, if at all in the 9740-9750 region this arvo as we hit the buy zone..


time to cross those fingers...
 
looks like the chances of hitting the bounce zone tonight are slim, unless we have a big old sell off.

so the short from 9923 to 9818 looks like the only trade to be had this week.

still edging its way south.......

anyone else still alive today?

:)
 
Thx Neil, I had already done a search on scmagic so haven't started a new thread.
Will wade thru your links, no doubt the info I want will be there somewhere.
BTW, is there a quick way to post links like that without typing them out the long way,
Cheers,hampy
 
Fine evidence today of Wall Street not only trading faithfully to prior S/R levels, but also by the clock………..!!

12.30 – must be lunchtime……….(yawn….. :-0 )

FC - if the Naz falls through 1760 - 9815 Dow no probs (then the rest....!)

I see that oil is up to $45.40ish, so it's going to be difficult for stocks to rally (and much easier for them to tank.............)
 

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This week hasn't been kind to me so i decided not to trade today but to brush up on my TA, though i did try a long on what looked like an inverted head and shoulders which didn't deliver, though i did get out for break even.
Its funny i did spot most of these realtime (isn't that always the way when you don't have money riding on the decision).
 

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Didn't really trade today.

Popped in at the open and saw what looked like a flag break /pullback (see chart 1) but have been burned by the open too many times so left it alone. With hindsight .... would have been worth a short. I also was unsure about the big gap on the chart where the flagpole should be, haven't seen this before.

Did I do the right thing? I know it is easy with hindsight. Any other time of day I probably would have traded.

Had a quick trade last thing for +11 points (see chart 2). Saw a trendline /wedge break and guessed the target would be around 9815/9810.

I had to exit the trade at 8:58 pm as for some reason at 9pm Finspreads changes from Thurs cash into Fri cash and I can't close my trade in the last 15 mins. Not sure why this is? Anyway, didn't get the 20 points I was aiming for but 11 is better than nowt.

Cheers!

Justyn.
 

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Looks spot on Carlos.
That volume spike on ES didn't transform into an up day.:( And now the upchannel is broken. Divergences coming in on2 days span now. Indecision?
 

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You have to watch that with fins Justyn i've been caught out by that, and always close a trade with them at the latest 8.45 ish.
They always tend to give you the worst price possible when they close the trade out themselves.
 
Down day with large pullbacks,making life difficult.Trade of the day would have been the bear triangle with targets of 9800 or 9810, depending on where you saw the mouth. I misread the drop as a news spike and nearly paid for it.....getting in on the first bounce at 28 and waiting for the break through 50 that never happend,so had to make a hasty exit :(
 

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Choppy action and quite a nice Adam and Eve setup imho with a spikey Adam and well rounded Eve (!) – if it delivers 764 could be within reach……..

With oil hitting $46, these little rallies are just gifts to the bears, and is anyone going to buy ahead of this weekends' uncertainties.........!?........we'll see............ :cool:

edit -for the uninitiated, the real Adam and Eve attached The Fall of Man (c. 1570) Titian (c. 1480-1576) Canvas : sorry - I couldn't get the tasteful figleaves onto the charts......... ;)

edit 20:49 - Oh well, low of the day 9777 on my screen, so wasn’t to far out with the above projection, and a little bounce to flattish near the close so maybe the indices are finding support at current levels despite all the negative factors……

Another ‘duffer’ with the Dow Comp entry though……skidded on an expensive oil slick..! :(
 

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Friday 13th August 2004

10:19 Possible short off pullback to 100ema at 9824 but not taken as no obvious trend/direction yet.

10:51 Possible long off pullback to 100ema/9832 resistance at 9834 but again not taken as still in large rectangle formation with no clear direction.

12:21 Down to new lows after breakdown of wedge but it wasn't clear to me at the time (but inevitably looks pretty obvious with hindsight). No immediate follow through with volume coming in quickly to the upside. However, it soon pushed down leaving me on the sidelines.

Finding today tough so far.

12:54 TRADE ENTRY: First pullback short after break out to new lows at 9814, albeit after a very sharp return move from the lows - potential bottom?

13:36 Possible failure of triangle break to the downside - short not looking healthy at this stage.

13:53 Definitely looks to be breaking up now - through the 100ema, taking out the swing high. Do I not like this! 30m chart shows potential double bottom with huge single PD on RSI and CCI.

14:07 T1 for triangle break reached at 9830 then small retrace for potential bull flag break to upside for long entry at 9824 (but I'm still short!). This failed and price pulled back to support at 100ema around 9815 before dropping but support soon found at yesterday's low/channel bottom at 9807 (14:20 est).

14:28 Support holds and price moves back up above 100 ema.

14:46 Support now looking like a neckline for potential head and shoulders but holds again before eventually giving way. However, this time price bounces sharply back up to the neckline almost immediately off 9800 before repeating the movement minutes later, going on to form a tight consolidation between 9800 and 9810.

15:08 With less than one hour left in the trading week and such a direction-less day coming to an end, I decide to deviate from CM's principles and put by stop just above this consolidation range (9812) should it break up from here. I don't want to risk a loss on this now.

15:14 Breaks down to new LOD. T1 on this move looks to be around 9780. I'm going to set that as a target for the trade with the day getting to a close a no real sign on a desire to break significantly below recent lows.

15:34 TRADE EXIT Well, it didn't get there on either of the first two attempts and looked to be pulling back sharply as yesterday's lows provided strong support on all indices so I exited when it took out the swing high at 9802 for +12 on the trade and the day.

Not a bad result from a tough day but a long painful slog to get there.

Any comments, suggestions etc gratefully received.

P.S. will attempt to post chart later if I can work out how to do it!
 

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Nice log and plenty of thinking going on. Yes, another tough day. Another PD setting in so mabe some upside to start off next week.This oil buisiness must be hitting right across the board......
 

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Hi

I posted a few charts a couple of weeks ago showing price, ema100 and ema100 +/-15.

I've been looking at this type of TA a little more closely over the last few days so I thought I'd post todays results.

Rules are
1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15

2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches ema-15.

3. Short if nd and/or price is 100ema +15 [or v close]

4. Long if pd and/or price is 100ema -15 [or v close]

5. Don't trade in the 1st hour

6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR

Attached chart shows

1st hour ignored but today rules would have worked.

A: Short at 9848. Rule 1

B: Short at 9850. Rule 3. [nd]

C: Close at 9820. Rule 2. +28 {-spread]

D: Close at 9795. Rule 4. +55 [-spread]

E: Short at 9830. Rule 1

F: Long at 9800. Rule 2 +30[-spread]

G: Long at 9790. Rule 4.

Close at 9820 Rule 1 +30 {-spread]

Total +143 [-spread]

Regards
Bill

PS 'If it looks too good to be true it probably is.' DO NOT try this at home...
 

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Messy day, but two opportunities for a long- one off the PD and the other off the CCI O/S.
 

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Bill,

I've just been studying your chart with interest.

I was wondering, you took 2 shorts, A. & B. then you closed short A. at point C. and closed short B. at point D.

I don't undertsand why you didn't close both A. & B. at point C. as per the rules? Do you only close an entry made using rule 1 when the criteria for rule 2 are met and likewise only close an entry made using rule 3 when rule 4 criteria are met?

How are you finding this system works in general? Obviously no system will work anywhere near 100% of the time, do you have any idea what percenatge of the time it does work?

When it doesn't work, why doesn't it work? It must be on a trending day when the price crosses the EMA and carries on through the EMA +/- 15?

If you can create some rules that help spot a "bad" day then you could reduce losses or play a different strategy accordingly.

Have you thought about using "lots"? Open two trades instead of one when rule 1 is met. When rule 2 is met close one lot and let the other run. If the price moves back to the EMA then close lot 2 for a small profit (using a fixed stop loss maybe) but if it carries on beyond the EMA +/- 15 then you have caught a bigger move.

Just my thoughts (as an amateur). Good to have such defined rules, it takes some of the guesswork and emotion out of the decision process. Good luck and please keep us posted on how you get on!

Justyn.
 
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