Friday 13th August 2004
10:19 Possible short off pullback to 100ema at 9824 but not taken as no obvious trend/direction yet.
10:51 Possible long off pullback to 100ema/9832 resistance at 9834 but again not taken as still in large rectangle formation with no clear direction.
12:21 Down to new lows after breakdown of wedge but it wasn't clear to me at the time (but inevitably looks pretty obvious with hindsight). No immediate follow through with volume coming in quickly to the upside. However, it soon pushed down leaving me on the sidelines.
Finding today tough so far.
12:54 TRADE ENTRY: First pullback short after break out to new lows at 9814, albeit after a very sharp return move from the lows - potential bottom?
13:36 Possible failure of triangle break to the downside - short not looking healthy at this stage.
13:53 Definitely looks to be breaking up now - through the 100ema, taking out the swing high. Do I not like this! 30m chart shows potential double bottom with huge single PD on RSI and CCI.
14:07 T1 for triangle break reached at 9830 then small retrace for potential bull flag break to upside for long entry at 9824 (but I'm still short!). This failed and price pulled back to support at 100ema around 9815 before dropping but support soon found at yesterday's low/channel bottom at 9807 (14:20 est).
14:28 Support holds and price moves back up above 100 ema.
14:46 Support now looking like a neckline for potential head and shoulders but holds again before eventually giving way. However, this time price bounces sharply back up to the neckline almost immediately off 9800 before repeating the movement minutes later, going on to form a tight consolidation between 9800 and 9810.
15:08 With less than one hour left in the trading week and such a direction-less day coming to an end, I decide to deviate from CM's principles and put by stop just above this consolidation range (9812) should it break up from here. I don't want to risk a loss on this now.
15:14 Breaks down to new LOD. T1 on this move looks to be around 9780. I'm going to set that as a target for the trade with the day getting to a close a no real sign on a desire to break significantly below recent lows.
15:34 TRADE EXIT Well, it didn't get there on either of the first two attempts and looked to be pulling back sharply as yesterday's lows provided strong support on all indices so I exited when it took out the swing high at 9802 for +12 on the trade and the day.
Not a bad result from a tough day but a long painful slog to get there.
Any comments, suggestions etc gratefully received.
P.S. will attempt to post chart later if I can work out how to do it!