Dow Intraday Charts 27 Sept - 01 Oct

[FetteredChinos]

electronic climbing wall?

sounds interesting.

i'll bet it has divergances all over the place.

 

[FetteredChinos]

FWIW i think 9940 is a strong possibility today, followed by a 100+ point bounce today/tmr.

 

[trendie]

Today, I WILL NOT close out my sells at 10,009 and 10,021 before the opening bell.
Last time I did that, I missed out on drops.

I am just priming the market to spike up, arent I ??

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol yes trendie. dont tempt fate.

FWIW you're trading with the current trend, and although we are "due" a retrace soon, stick with the trend until it changes..

just put in a short on the FTSE, so i expect the dow futures to follow the same shape south, at least until the early session.

 

[ChartMan]

photo of the climbing wall......

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice flares...

 

[TheBramble]

photo of the climbing wall......

Looks like you've just tilted the photo of one of your bondage victims tied to the floor.

It's not DW is it...!!!!

...could be, after all, he is wearing flares.

 

[TheBramble]

Today, I WILL NOT close out my sells at 10,009 and 10,021 before the opening bell.
Last time I did that, I missed out on drops.

I am just priming the market to spike up, arent I ??

I'd sit tight for the first half hour on principle Trendie. Having said that, the dip below 10k was on less than convincing volume.

 

[FetteredChinos]

I'd sit tight for the first half hour on principle Trendie.

maybe he needs those bondage trousers....

 

[justyn]

Futs dipped to 9969 overnight, now hovering around 10000. Oil still just above $50 though.

I wouldn't risk going short at the moment but I wouldn't want to be long right now either.

If we discount the dip below 10000 last night then there could be a triangle forming (see attached) with T1 = 9960.

Maybe that dip down gives a clue that this is the direction the triangle will break.

Justyn.

 

[FetteredChinos]

looks like it was a crap confidence number at 3pm...

will we see 9970, then 9940 today...


hmm...hope so

 

[trendie]

my 10,055 sell limit orders are close to being triggered.
feel like I should manually trigger them.

did dip below 10K.

PATIENCE !!

 

[trendie]

Boredom trade !!

I have placed a limit SELL at 10,027.

If the 10,055 triggers, I cancel the 10,027.
If the Dow falls back without hitting 10,055, it will initiate the 10,027 on the downward trip.

I will then have 3 SELL positions.
I will now have to consider closing out something, as I dont want to carry 3 positions.

 

[tradesmart]

Inspirational stuff Trendie……..!

Spooky – It knew where to bounce today – right off of my ‘guess’ lower trendline from last week……. http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=129259&postcount=88

The 'thin blue line' has proved to be a formidable anti-bear barrier....(so far.... )

I don’t normally advocate guessing as a T/A strategy, and those on the ‘distinguished road’ won’t stand a chance, so don’t try it at home……

You have to be on the ‘yellow brick road’ to get it right……..

Edit – well worth watching the 60min chart (attached) over the last few days with bottoming PD RSI developing into triangle mimicking the down wedge triangle on the chart, ‘winding up’ with one certain outcome…….

Edt again – fodder for the bears..?
The Federal Reserve's decision last week to increase its target federal funds rate has prompted many bearish advisers to invoke Edson Gould's famous "three steps and a tumble" rule.

Gould believed that the stock market would begin to decline ("tumble") after three consecutive interest rate hikes ("three steps") from the Federal Reserve. And, if you somehow missed it, the Fed's rate hike last week was indeed the third one in a row.

Does that spell doom for the stock market?............doomed....LOL....!......

Edit - more bear stuff.......
Since 1915, according to Ned Davis Research, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined by an average of 17 percent following three rate hikes by the Fed.

Perhaps I'll become a bear.........

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol nice call TS, straight out of the chinos book of trading lol..

FWIW, we have hit a 70 point retrace from the lows of the morning..

this is a normal days range. so it should be a low-ish risk short from here...

famous last words, im going in chaps..

FC

 

[trendie]

Dow ranged around 10,400.
Now drifting down.

Will the 7pm crowd push it down ??
And keep it below 10K tonight ?

 

[trendie]

WHAT THE F*** ?

I forgot to cancel the 2 x 10,055 SELLS !!

I now have FIVE SELL positions running.

My strategy to stop-loss at 10,200 needs re-assessment, as I need to reduce my exposure as more positions become activated.

Whoops !!

EDIT: glad I have a day-job.

 

[Bill]

Hi

I expect there were some real winners today but I was definately not one of them.

Chart shows the trades. As I continually say, this strategy is pretty much useless in a trending market but today was perhaps the worst case scenario. Normally you can get an idea of market sentiment from the first few hours and scrap the rules if the market is trending but today we had both a fall then a rise meaning that the sideways day, and the rules, could be useful. Indeed the first trade went well into profit before the BE stoploss was taken. The rise from there on sealed my fate taking out two stops for -22 and -24 . Good job it's not real money.

There were clues though. Look how easily the price pushed through ema100 +15 during the early up move. This suggests that there is little resistance here today. The reasoning behind A was stretching rule 3 quite a lot as the ND is not near ema100 +15.
Failure to touch ema100 -15 twice around 6:30/7:00 ish was perhaps an indication of what was to come.

Finally just an observation. Look how the price bounces off the outside of the 100ema +15 during the last 1.5 hours. This frequently happens on a trending day.

Just when everyone starts talking 'short' the Dow rallies, it's clever you know! [pity I'm not]

-46 today

Regards

Bill

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR

 

[carlosd]

Your not the only one bill im -32 for the day after 3 bad trades.

 

[Quercus]

And I'm -22 after six trades on YM, so you are not alone!
Cheers
Q