Dow Intraday Charts 20 Sept - 24 Sept

[triplepack]

Trader Tony

I look forward to your analysis each day Tony . Keep it up mate well done.

Triplepack

 

[GKB]

Any expanding triangle experts out there who can tell me if I am talking nonsense?

Hi Justyn,
I think I've got that expanding triangle stuff sorted out. I've used the volume chart I posted previously. Ignore the comments boxes please

Basically, there should be a series of higher highs and lower lows.

If you look at your diagram, the whole thing looks like a running corrective ABC (largest degree). The C wave (largest degree) does not go higher than the preceding high, so no expanding triange by then.

The largest degree A wave subdivides into another ABC. The B wave at this degree does not go lower than the preceding low, so no expanding triangle here either.

However, the A wave of this medium sized degree, does present an expanding triangle made up of a very neat 'abcde' pattern of higher highs and lower lows.

I think the bearish nature of the triangle (as the trend was down into it) was shown by the following 'B' (medium degree) drop within the 'A' (largest degree).

I don't think it predicted the next B drop (largest degree) and I'm pretty sure it didn't predict this most recent drop.

I've reread this and it sounds confusing. Look at the chart it's a lot easier to see than explain.

Now I've got a headache, so I'm going to lie down.

Regards,

Graham.

 

[tradesmart]

TTony.....

23rd September 2004

To accommodate the potential higher number of shorter trades I am now taking, I am going to enter and automatic hard stop of 10 points as opposed to the 35 I have been using.

Nice one Tony - the improvement is apparent straight away........

Keep up the good work

Regards

 

[FetteredChinos]

so what do we reckon as to todays action?

continuation of the bear flag that has been forming since yesterday? setting up for a drop into the close/next week?

answers on a postcard please..

(ps, short from 10,070 - yesterdays midpoint . actual SB price 10,065)

FC

 

[trendie]

I got my limit on 10,050 filled. I am short too.
But there hasnt been the wide-ranging I was expecting.
Around a 40-point range - Narrow Range ( so far today ).

Is it coiling for a spring ?

 

[TraderTony]

Friday 24th September 2004

Just to confuse, I've changed the 1m chart to the YM today (Q`Z on my package) as I have found it helpful to take signals directly from this for these shorter term trades. Everything else remains the same and I am still watching a 1m Dow chart too.

10 am numbers.

9:55 First TLB to downside at about 10049 (prices have not yet taken out 100 ema +20) but will leave as too close to numbers being released. It actually turned into a decent trade and there was no obvious impact of the numbers (if indeed they were released). Probably better safe than sorry. No clear direction either side of 100 ema.

10:16 TRADE ENTRY !): L 10043. Nice quick run up then sharp reversal into loss.
10:23 EXIT -2. TLB.

10:26: TRADE ENTRY 2): L 10042. Try again
10:29 EXIT -3. Guess it's not ready for longs yet. TLB.

OK, so today I'm getting no movement so I guess it would make sense to wait until we make a break before entering any more (unlike yesterday when I stopped when I was getting good trades). Either that or keep nibbling away with (hopefully) small losses. I'll keep out - especially as the 10 min RSI is sandwiched between two converging TLs.

Eventually moves back to HOD and above. Would actually have done a little better to keep taking the entries but again, I'm not too concerned as it could have gone on and on and then broken to the downside. 10 RSI has now broken TL to upside but price still hasn't made 15 points either side of the 100 ema.

11:06 TRADE ENTRY 3): L 10059.
11:09 EXIT: b/e. TLB.

11:16 ND sends it into a spin. It turned out to be a good entry short, but I'm not taking divergences as entries at the moment (although a low range day is going to favour them as entries). Ends up dropping back below 100 ema.

11:43 TRADE ENTRY 4): L 10050. One last try perhaps at the long on TLB up off 100 ema (albeit after ND to reverse at top and no movement for last 5 mins so another risky one.
11:52 EXIT +4. TLB.

Very tempted by short here on TLB to downside just below 100 ema (at 10049) but I'm going to be cautious and wait for some action below the 100 ema before looking to enter. Probably a decision I'll live to regret it.

12:24 TRADE ENTRY 5): S 10040. On TLB after flag below 100 ema but no break on price.
11:27 EXIT -4. Didn't I say I was going to wait for some downside movement? It never went any where near 20 points below so I should not really have been looking for shorts.

No action until nearly 13:30 when it broke up and I missed it but I have to leave soon to take the family away for the weekend. Would like to get one decent winner first. Still in a bear flag on 10m so I wouldn't expect much more upside. I'm going to call it quits there. Hope there's some good action for the rest of the day and will post charts when I get back.

-5 from 5

81 for September so far.

Disappointed not to have had a winning day but a small loss in a choppy 35 point range is still not a bad result for me (not forgetting costs of course which are greater with more trades). I had feared that increasing the trading frequency could cost me a lot more in choppy conditions - my Achilles heal in the past - but I'm getting quick exit signals at the moment when trades don't work.

 

[tradesmart]

Looks like my premature ‘guess’ new trend channel may be a better guess than my Dow Comp entry this week…............

(some adjustment of the trendlines may be required as the situation develops.... (ahem..))

The Dow tried to rally today, but had a problem because the Naz looks like it’s just about to fall off a cliff imho…….

ps – if you run your mouse over the little green dot under my avatar , you’ll read “tradesmart is an unknown quantity at this point”

This is what happens when you guess too much – be warned……!

ROTFLMAO……….. !

 

[trendie]

Looks like the Dow will close today as a Graveyard Doji ?
Seriously bearish ?

 

[Bill]

Hi

The chart is pretty self explanatory today. +19 is OK! innit? Kickin myself over the last close could easily have been +25 [with daily total of +35]
Now a confession . I forgot about an overnighter taken on Wed which stopped for -26 on thurs. .Lesson is: don't hold overnight which probably translates to don't open a trade in the last hour [could that be rule 7?]

So for the week No trades Mon.Tue Wed +19 Thu -26 Fri +19 = +12 for the week.

So there we have it....."Bill is on a distinguished road" according to my little green thing TS. M25 probably. Round-and-round in circles.

Have a great weekend!

Bill

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR

 

[Quercus]

Interesting point about the doji Trendie.
Another thing to note is that today was an NR7 day - narrowest range in last seven days. This can often lead to a trend day the day after, but Monday is also the least likely day for a trend!
Range of YM in last seven days 50,61,70,69,92,83,44.
Cheers
Q

 

[justyn]

Flag or channel?

10 min chart attached.

Wasn't sure if I was looking at a flag or a channel here. The flag/price failed to make the 2nd touch on the support line but it then didn't break resistance.

At the end of day it touched support, tried to bounce up but pulled down to support again and looked like it may have just broken out but has now pulled back up according to the futures price.

Will treat it as a channel until it breaks I suppose? Can't see it remaining a channel on Monday though.

Justyn.

 

[ChartMan]

When is a channel not a channel? When it's a flag. Same shape, different time scale and size.Today is a Bear Flag. That means 100- 200 point drop depending on your viewpoint as to where the top of the pole is- 140 or 260..... Alternative scenario is that it develops into a "W" bottom.
Trust me, I'm a Doctor. :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

Just a quicky...I commented ( as did others) about the vertical line off the apex of a triangle. I said it was the optimum point to reach target- both examples fit today.Others said it was a sign of potential reversal and I said I didn't think so...... Looks like I was wrong, but as always , one ( or two) Swallows do not a summer make and that vertical line showing the optimum target point doesn't often work either.So now you know.

 

[ChartMan]

On a closing note, the thread reads are going up nicely, thanks in main to the new contributors. These are is both refreshing and interesting to read and are a welcome addition.
Keep up the good work.

 

[justyn]

That means 100- 200 point drop ..... Alternative scenario is that it develops into a "W" bottom.

So you're saying we could be heading down, or we could be heading up?

Have a nice weekend!

 

[tradesmart]

So you're saying we could be heading down, or we could be heading up?

It's called 'hedging your bets' all the best investors do it...........!.........

 

[ChartMan]

I don't have a clue.Never have done and never will do. :cheesy: So I guess I do have the qualifications. On a more serious note, I just try to look at things from both sides of the fence if I can.

 

[sall]

Very wisely mentioend by Chartman, I haven't been able to post my candlestick trades recently due to being too busy at work, however will do in the not too distant future.