Dow Intraday charts 26/Jan - 30/Jan

[mombasa]

Cheers Mark - I'm having a play with this :

http://www.stelaronline.com/resource/pivot.htm

 

[tradesmart]

A classic example of the hazards of holding overnight as mentioned by CM on Monday – the cash market closes unexpectedly low at 10609 (I guess that a lot of people went long yesterday evening anticipating a bounce that didn’t come!) the futures market tanks overnight to 10565 taking out long stops then bounces back to the current level at 10640 taking out short stops!!

The SB bookies love these moves; it’s rumoured they make most of their money taking out margin stops (thus the fierce bias in both directions)

A cautionary note……..

The chart shown is the March Futs – add 20 to get the current price…

Ps – wasn’t trading yesterday – recovering from the excitement of Monday .. :cheesy:

 

[mombasa]

just wondering if we should be factoring in the 60 min trendline as main S/R?

In that case, support starting at around 580 today and extending up.

Also, kinda ties in with CM's 10 min support line No. 2

 

[bgold]

TS, you were sorely missed yesterday. Today, I hope we can once again benefit from your insights.

CM, on your 10min chart just below line 3, I think a 5th can be drawn which makes a up channel with 4.
Considering the 1min chart is also in channel but down, at close near support line (which served as resistance until 19:15) and none of the momentum indicators point to a trend turn up, I wouldn't be surprised to see further (initial) weakness towards 10570 (that is unless overnight activity reflects this already?) before market can go back up?

We'll see in next 30mins if strong futures point to a higher market or will revberse conform above scenario.

 

[eminem]

bgold, just to answer you question about early prices, going by D4F prices, pre-market low was 10560 followed by a sharp turnaround up to 10640 over the space of about 2 hours this am.

 

[tradesmart]

This looks like a nice long setup to me – all three major indexes have pronounced PD bottoms on the 10min charts and the Dow has bottomed off support at 10610 forming a ‘W’ on CM’s trendline No 3.

The 1min chart triangle yesterday between 10650 and 10620 suggests a target of 10680……

The market may well rise in anticipation of the FED statement around 19.00, but beware of whipsaws around this time as the market digests the meaning…..

And we’ve only tested 10700 once……..

edit 18:20- Closed long at 3-peak ND at 10660 (50% fib of yesterdays downmove) was thinking of going in again now we've retraced to 10630 ish but think I'll wait to see what Sir G has to say....the market may not like it....

edit 19:53 - long at 10500-530 (wish I'd gone short at 10640! ) 5-waves down on the 1min chart!!

edit 21:44 - final thought - this thing always goes down (&up!) further than you think it will (patience/patience and more patience!!)

 

[mombasa]

60 min chart showing consolidation / bear flag developing - target 10,580.

Not worth getting into a trade before fed announcement tho.

 

[ChartMan]

That's screwed that up then..... A timely reminder of why not to be in a position prior to a news release...
I'm not guessing where this will go tomorrow, just have to wait and see. Up is the most obvious. :cheesy:

 

[tradesmart]

CM - I'm becoming a bit concerned about our Dow Comp entries for this week (both in the same ballpark - great minds and all that.....! )

do you think we're still in with a chance..........?! :cheesy:

ps - is this Sir G or Woody Allen, I'm not quite sure.........

 

[ChartMan]

I hope you didn't get carried away with the blip up at 19:09... Still, a chance to get in on the pullback at 620 and a monster ride down to the PD bottom ( what else) for 180.This is like the old days.... when pullbacks went 40 points instead of current expectations of 20. On the other hand, at £100 pp, it was a 4 grand pullback Still, £18 K for a couple of hours work... nice if you can get it. :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

OMG is that GreenSpam? :cheesy:
Yes, I think we do.... I'm guessing,well, no, I'm hoping that we return to par. Good chance if we can get back to 550.Will this be the "V" bottom of all V's?

 

[mombasa]

missed it all trying to get home in the snow n ice

 

[tradesmart]

Mom, the chill affected the market as well.....!

There is no doubt that the 'W' bottom had morphed into a bear flag on the 10min chart - so well spotted .........In retrospect, I think that the market was signalling it's intentions in advance of the FOMC statement..........

I was expecting the normal 'Greenspan whipsaw', not the 200 point plunge, so I didn't capitalise effectively on it myself.....

T/A aside, I think that the markets will soon see the Feds subtle change of language as confirmation of the strength of the US economy, and continue the bull run....

 

[mombasa]

TS - also, daily chart shows a potential dbl bottom around 10,420 - maybe an Adam n Eve bottom using bar charts.

Trouble is - chart also has RSI ND

 

[tradesmart]

Mom, I think it’s very likely that yesterday’s plunge will destabilise things for a few days and progress could be choppy with a downwards bias……..but a bounce today could well be on the cards, probably forming some sort of consolidation above the lows….

I wouldn’t care to call a bottom yet, but the recent low of 10375 could well be tested…

I’ll just try to trade what I see………….

 

[wellshot]

£100ppt

first post -pl forgive if inappropriate thread
q? which brokerage do you use that affords easy fills using an internet trading platform [i assume]....? i will be ever so grateful to know as it is my ambition to trade at that level on the 1 min charts...thanks very much in advance
regards
stuart

 

[wellshot]

£100ppt

sorry-forgot..this is for chartman trading at £100ppt
thanks!

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Agree with the bullish potential, there was no suprise in the Fed statement, there was a lot of talk at the last meeting about the removal of the key wording, and U.S. economist's polled before the announcement strongly favoured a change in wording.

The first 15 mins will be key to today, futs already looking for a 60 pt bounce. Don't you just love a bit of volatility.

Missed a massive number of points last night as IB started losing data 15 mins after the announcement, and then kept going down for 10 mins at a time.

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Boy oh boy is this weak.................. :|

Looks like a lot of shattered nerves out there.......No Volume........No Direction = No Profits

Wasn't in the mood to be patient today but looks like I need a change of mind, sit on hands and remain flat I guess.

 

[mombasa]

took a quick short at 520 n out for 15 points - looks like an inv h&s on 10 min anyone?

or maybe a bull flag starting to form.

wait n see ....