Dow Intraday Charts 25 Oct - 29 Oct

[TraderTony]

TT,

I start a new project in two weeks, so this experiment with day-trading was to establich whether I could do it. ( I gave myself six weeks for this experiment )

I think I may have cracked it, what with taking losses, etc, and the trading became boring and monotonous. I understand that is a good sign !!

If 200 points a month is a good thing, then maybe I should reconsider !!

Well, for me 400 or 500 would be great, but if it's consistent, 200 is certainly a start. Trading 10 contracts would return $10k a month (this would require about £20k of margin to be comfortable although you could get away with less) . At 400 points you would obviously return the same from just 5 contracts per trade. Trade 20 contracts and you might even be able to start enjoying yourself!

 

[ChartMan]

Up up and away... having been firmly blocked at 9850 all the way up to 9888, straight through 9800.... who'd have thought it? Except GKB,maybe. Sweet pullback to the RS trendline through 9800 and up to T1, followed by 3pk ND and an out at 9864 for the easiest 100 in a long time.... Back in as the pullback comes off 32 and another easy 50 odd.

 

[ChartMan]

Up and out of the channel cancelling the third cycle bounce expected at 9800. Balls of steel GKB mus be piushing a heavy wheel barrow tonight.... :cheesy:

 

[TraderTony]

Tuesday 26th October 2004

Today I must win the prize for the biggest possible balls up of a beautiful trending day. I completely lost the plot...

All I needed was to get long on the gap close and stay there. Never any pressure on the 100 ema on the 1 minute chart (34 on the 3m). So what did I do? I took loads of shorts. I don't have notes but trades are marked up on the chart and at one point I had 4 losers from 5 trades (after 5 from 6 yesterday). All these losers today were shorts in a rising market. As with immediate effect I will stay out of counter trend trades when the market is clearly trending. I don't know what got into me. Also, when I finally woke up and started going long the entries on the 3m chart today were awful if, as I did, you waited for the bar close before pulling the trigger. Largely as a result of this, not one of the five winning trades I ended up with closed for a double digit gain today despite lots of big moves. I'll look at order entry as well tomorrow.

Realising I was making a complete pig's ear of an absolute gift of a day I forced myself to stop early for a small overall loss.

+1 from 10
-9 for the day after commissions.
+183 for October so far after commissions.

A very bad day for me when so many points were on offer. What a plonker. Congratulations to all who got long early and stayed there!

Lesson of the day - make sure you don't lose sight of the forest for the trees.

 

[GKB]

Hi,
What a day! Now closed just over half my longs for nice profit ... still underwater with the original longs from 10000 or so.

Not sure about Balls of steel ... more like lead for brains. Definitely need to improve my original entry points.

EW have two scenarios which basically say the same thing from here in the short term.

1) This is a retrace which has peaked well overbought on time scales upto hourly ... so is a B wave flat corrective 3:3:5 on the lows with the next C wave down to come, targeting 9500 or so, if A=C. There are lots of time correllations here within the B wave, so this is likely, and hourly adx has dropped on the rise, with reversal peak in rsi.

2) This is the beginning of a larger retrace and we've just had the a wave of the B wave corrective. If so, targeting around 10,000 but with a retrace which could go down to 9775 or higher first.

In the longer term still see higher but for now, it's time to take profits on 50%. Going to play the retrace short using my other trading account.

Good luck to everyone today.

Regards,

Graham.

 

[tradesmart]

Commiserations Tony and glad that some of GKB'S longs are coming to the surface - you must be tired of 'snorkel' trading....... - (would trading with a tight stop, relying on good entries be less stressful/risky.....?! )

Tony - there are quite a few days where you could take a position in the first hour of the session, walk away, and return at the closing bell to pick up maximum points......and I have heard of 'screen averse' traders who do this all the time - all you have to do is get a good entry, put a break even stop in, and let it run......(while you retire to the pub/the garden/the jacuzzi etc etc.... :cheesy: )

A 138 point rally yesterday in the face of the worst Consumer Confidence numbers for 7months and still record high oil prices……?!…….well, they certainly know where the shorts stops are…!

Nice ‘bounce’ off of the daily chart lower trendline over the last two days, but judging from the previous contacts with this line, a retest of the lows is likely in order to form a supportive base for any substantial rally attempt, and a break of the line could lead to a mega tanking imho…..

 

[GKB]

Commiserations Tony and glad that some of GKB'S longs are coming to the surface - you must be tired of 'snorkel' trading....... - (would trading with a tight stop, relying on good entries be less stressful/risky.....?! )

A 138 point rally yesterday in the face of the worst Consumer Confidence numbers for 7months and still record high oil prices……?!…….well, they certainly know where the shorts stops are…!

Hi Tradesmart,
Thx. for your comments. Certainly snorkel trading is very stressful for me and seems a necessary part of my approach. I think it's all down to personality ... never been one to take the easy road

Seriously, I think you're right about the "good entries" ... an area that I should improve ... difficult to know how to though unless I make a rule that once I've closed a position I won't get back in to reverse perhaps for one day / within X points / until next wave pattern is complete. Difficult to walk away ... but maybe it's the right thing for me to do.

My contrarian stance is difficult to control as well. But you give my reasons in your comment very well ... "they certainly know where the shorts stops are…!

I'm really hacked off that positions are "whip-sawed" to stoploss ... when I've backtested, so far I would always have been better off staying in, either to a subsequently smaller loss or ultimate profit. This is the best reason I have for not using tight stop losses ... but you're right, it's very stressful. Risky? I'm not sure ... I do keep an eye on the bigger picture and with multiple positioning (some would say throwing good money after bad) I seem to ride the losses. As they say, it's not over till the fat lady sings I realise that sometimes more cash is needed to carry losing positions and then add-in more ... to allow this, I try to keep only a small % of my original capital per position and limit the number of positions. Again, easy to say, harder to do.

God, I ramble on, don't I?

Regards,

Graham

 

[ChartMan]

At least you are well aware of what you are doing where your pain threshold is and your stake size. If someone else were to emulate your style, whith a bigger stake size, they'd go pop in a week cos they couldn't fund the drawdowns......

 

[ChartMan]

Looks like an up only day.....

 

[ChartMan]

Looks like an up only day.....

only if it bounces here... :cheesy:

 

[tradesmart]

originally posted by TS.....all you have to do is get a good entry, put a break even stop in, and let it run......(while you retire to the pub/the garden/the jacuzzi etc etc.... )

I went long at 840 and walked away - am I quids in yet.........?!

(posting from McDonalds - Big Mac in hand......... )

LOL..........!!!!!!

 

[Bill]

TS

Yup.... Treat yourself to a McFlurry you can afford it now !


Bill

 

[trendie]

TSs had a super-size trade today.

 

[TraderTony]

Wednesday 27th October 2004

10:48 1) L 9854. Not much immediate follow through. Then it starts to fly to new highs. Hits +30 at yesterday's HOD which seems to have stopped it dead in its tracks. Then another push up possibly looking for 9900 where I will close if it hits. And got it.
11:01 EXIT: +45. Now that's more like it! May have been premature but I'm happy to start the day like that. And it does keep on up. Flying. Another 20 and rising. 40. Sod's law!

My normal low of previous bar trailing stop would have got me out for +68 at 11:13. The max profit was +85. Something more to think about.

Long sideways period followed - kept out by MACD line.

13:03 2) L 9943. Probably a bar too late on the entry here. Moving to new HOD but needs to hold it. Up just under 30 points by end of first bar - amazing - but please don't drop straight back! Potential double top on next bar. And next. Could be a bull flag for another push but holding firm right now.
13:12 EXIT: +21 but I think it probably has more upside in it.

14:06 3) L 9971. Again feels a bar late. Moves up nicely but again falling short of 10,000.
14:15 EXIT: +8. But out too soon for sure this time.

14:24 4) L 9985. Back in same trade again. Going no where.
14:26 EXIT: -5

Possible triple ND on MACD now. Still seems likely it will reach 10,000 though. I'm going to call it quits for the evening there.

I've done well today but I should have done better. Still, it has got the week back on track. Those who just got long above the 100 ema on the 1m and stayed there would have done superbly again today.

+69 from 4
+65 for the day after commissions
+248 for October so far after commissions

 

[ChartMan]

Another straight up day. I haven't said this for a long long time, but is it a question of too much ,too quick? There is only one outcome....

 

[ChartMan]

Nice easy ride again getting off on the PD/DB/Inv. H&S at 9850. Which was it? Out on the ND top at around 9950 and then see what happens...... My comments earlier about an up only day were qualified a while later as being conditional on the bounce at 32, which it did. The drop from 58 to 33 is was about right for the big rise. Remember, a' normal' day will see pullbacks of no more than 20 . A big rising day like today, you need to leave a little more if you want to stay in the trade. As always, it's better to close out at the ND and wait for the next entry..... A tad risky onm the first bounce on 32, but an easy stop placement at, say 25. Safer entry off the PD /DB at 32 a while later, but still with the near stop at 25.( the cash price, NOT the SB's price!) The next flag coming down off 80 should have given you a target of 10,020 and prompted staying in til the close....

 

[justyn]

Nobody commenting on today's action tonight? I'll have a go ...

Gap down and what seemed to be a bear flag at "A" attached although it looked a bit too steep for a flag?

The failure to break the LOD at 9955 the first time set the alarm bells off then the third failed attempt with the 3 PK divergence at "B" was the clue to go long.

Question - how would you know to exit at 10005? Because it was the opening price and 50 points up is enough for 1 move? No clues from RSI that I could see to exit here?

Bull flag at "C" gave a target of (10005 - 9955) = 50 points so 9985 + 50 = 10035. The pause halfway up from there gave a target of 10045 which matched the 3 pk top at "D".

And if you like a gamble entry then you could have shorted here and collected another 50 on the way back down.

Hope everyone had a good day today

Justyn.

 

[ChartMan]

Are we all dead today?????
Not unexpected drop to start, but enexpected continuation.... Hard to see where tomorrow will go.

 

[ChartMan]

Same again, nice ride off the TB/PD open and close to 90 points before an out on the ND top. Then a short into the close as 32 went pearshaped.....

 

[tradesmart]

Hard to see where tomorrow will go.

Sideways for a bit, then down for a test of 9950 again, with an option on 9900 in my humble guesstimation..........

Any other offers..? - you might even be right.........!..........