badtrader said:These are the results bellow for this year. The only fault with this method, no stops are used. But in not using any stops, the method done good. only one losing month and that was March for-26 points The results are based on the Dow.
I call this Method Moon River
Jan +255
Feb. + 60
Mar - 26
Apr +103
May - 29
Jun + 318
July +68
Aug. +108
G-Man said:Hi badtrader,
If there is only one losing month for 2005 I assume the -29 listed for May is an error?
I would be interested to see the statistics for cable though.
G-Man
Bigbusiness said:Do you take the time of the full moon in EST, GMT or BST? Sometimes a full moon will be one day for GMT and another day for EST.
Perhaps a bigger back test might be worthwhile. Why not try it over the past 10 years? All the data is available and it would make the results a bit more significant.
Bigbusiness said:Do you take the time of the full moon in EST, GMT or BST? Sometimes a full moon will be one day for GMT and another day for EST.
Perhaps a bigger back test might be worthwhile. Why not try it over the past 10 years? All the data is available and it would make the results a bit more significant.
G-Man said:I had the same thought BB.
Doing a quick bit of analysis on cable we can see the difference the timing of the full moon takes. I think there is also the issue of what trading day to take when the full moon falls on a weekend.
G-Man
badtrader said:I base the moon cycles of this site http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/ what ever they are.![]()
pchivers said:Before getting carried away with this system I suggest everyone have a good read of
"Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
(I suggest keeping a dictionary handy as almost every page had at least one word that I had to look up to make sure that I was not reading it out of context.)
A lot of these "random" systems - "like buy on Tuesday and sell next day on Close if profitable" - are merely exploiting the general uptrend of the market, for example. You are often better off just using a trend following system.
FWIW
sandpiper said:apples,
If you are really in to this stuff you should have a look at Chris Carokan's spiral calendar. However, it's worth noting that this stuff (buying on the new moon) has been well tested by numerous people from Arthur Merril to ISBA going back as far as 1915 and they've all found that it's outperformed by buy and hold with only just over 50% of trades being profitable.
However, I grant you that more recent results would seem to go against that. However, I for one, would not want to be on board when the returns on "Moon River" (hmmmm some credit to the original researchers warranted methinks) revert to mean.
Good luck with it anyway.