Dow Intraday charts 22/Dec 24/Dec

[ChartMan]

New thread, then a shut down til January,and a Happy New Year. :cheesy:

 

[suggy]

drop cos of the terror alert? seem to have hit pretty solid resistance anyway

 

[ChartMan]

Bull flag with 60 points? 10,350?

 

[ChartMan]

I'll amend that to 320- pole should be from close on Friday...

 

[Quercus]

That's an interesting snippet of information CM - what's the reasoning behind that one?
Q

 

[Finirama]

Chartman,

Good call........yet again.

I thought there was a descending triangle forming from 14..45pm, until i looked at the bigger picture and you helped me realise that it was a just a retracement from the bull flag rom 8am.

Thank You CM

 

[ChartMan]

No,it was a bad call...! It made 300 then ran a bear flag. The 320 should have been met by around 15:40 latest

 

[tradesmart]

It seems to me that you made the correct call based on what was happening at the time CM, but what happened next is perhaps a salutary warning to us all that a bull feature can easily 'morph' into a bear feature, so we shouldn't take to much for granted and expect 'dead certs'..........

ironically now the target has been made (and more), although by a somewhat indirect route..........!

edit:- '32' acting like a magnet again.........

 

[tradesmart]

The daily chart confirms that we officially have a high-octane breakout from the long established channel up from the March lows.

RSI going into orbit too.........10500 by the New Year anybody! :-0

 

[ChartMan]

TradeSmart. Right call, wrong result, but a clearcut no arguments failure and out for a small loss.
The 10 min chart shows plenty of room for up on both RSI and CCI, assuming that RSI is going to push to 80.Beware there is a resistance line across 70 on RSI , so it could top out.
I seem to recall that Post- Xmas a couple of years back was very volatile....

 

[ChartMan]

Post analysis on the bull flag.... A long lull at the final support point. Not what you would expect by any means. The safest formation is where the final low fails to make support, giving rise to a change in the support slope.
Then the Bear Flag that did perform, making target in one hit, and then dithering for ages in the lunchtime blues.PD bottom at 17:30, confirmed by vol divergence on ES for a long, holding right into the close for an out at target 333. What a surprise. :cheesy:
Is that 5 waves or 7 waves up? How many H&S and Inv. H&S were there today?

 

[2468steve]

CM,
was volatile last year,although admitedly the prospect of Iraq gave everyone the jitters.Christmas week saw the Dow lose 206pts,followed by a gain in New Years week of 302 pts.
Just wish I was on the right side of those moves!!

cheers

 

[ChartMan]

99 and 2000 saw daily high/lows of 450 points.... My intraday archives don't go back that far, but I'm sure they're in this B's archives...

 

[One Eyed Shark]

My Mrs. tells me that if I am trading today and tomorrow I am addicted to the Dow, looking at the number of posts in here over the last couple of days I think she is probably right.

There were a few points on the table today for those who were patient.

At least she has a half day to look forward to tomorrow.( don't have the guts to tell her about boxing day yet) :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[tradesmart]

Mr Shark - I'm sure the missus is right, but us 'addicts' have to stick together (and have fun hopefully :cheesy: )

I hope that you've got plenty of points in your Christmas stocking......!

Had a bit of a strange day today myself …….thought things were a bit too ‘toppy’ to take a long at the bull flag at 10350, and then looked for a short at 10375, hoping for a double-top to confirm (the top)…..didn’t happen, so took a short at the bear triangle at 10350 and exited far to early at 10320 at the PD……reversed to a long being SURE that it was the bottom……..went for a glass of ‘pigs ear’ and came back to find that I’d been stopped out at 10298……BY TWO POINTS……!! …….gathered composure and took another long at 10310, now convinced that the ‘V’ bottom WAS the bottom (for now!)……managed to get the exit right this time at the ND top at 10345…….

No one said it was gonna be easy, and never forget, there is no such thing as a ‘dead cert’….!!

 

[tradesmart]

and by the way......A MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ONE AND ALL.....! :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

Topped out allright... at RSI 80. Had a peep through the channel and didn't like it, so it went back to have a peek at support . Found that more to it's liking and bounced back. :cheesy: Is that a touch of divergence setting in?

 

[ChartMan]

Well played, TS, almost. I missed the bear triangle, commenting it hadn't made support and so was looking for the break to the upside. I completely missed it hadn't made resistance and should have been looking for the drop...
As for getting out on that first PD- right idea, wrong rule....For a high probability, you need 3 peaks, we only had two. Two will always provide a reversal, but is never a guarantee of a bottom . ( Are there such guarantees?) The following PD at 19:47 not only gave a short term 2 peak, but the longer term 3 peak. The first PD was not confirmed by ES volume either, the vol making a peak at that low. The following dips from 19:07 to 19:50 provided clear PD on volume, confirming the DOW PD. I missed the top as it wasn't divergent so had to squeak out at 335

 

[JE2000]

NOV. DURABLE GOODS worst than expected. largest drop since sep. 02

 

[anmolway]

je2000, it looks like the market will pull up, considering that bad news can't seem pull it down