Monday, Tuesday
Hi,
Good week so far.
Carry over the weekend +30
Monday +12,+27,
Tuesday +25,+16,+24,+32,+15,+48
Week so far +229
Monday, held one small short over the weekend. Felt that the C wave down still needed a 5th wave and there was plenty of resistive volume with no compensatory supportive spike. Down it came, but as always got out too early. I read a very small 5 wave as being the necessary 5th wave but it wasn't ... it was only the first of the five needed for the fifth wave. Aaaaaargh.
Started collecting longs when the supportive volume picked up, we had nice pd's on rsi and cci. By Tuesday morning the market was looking decidedly overbought, additional resistive volume and a 3 wave retracement to the territory of the previous 4th wave, all said close the longs. I stll felt the retracement hadn't finished with the upside (didn't last long enough) so I kept one small long open and then watched as that triangle developed. Took another long at the bottom of the first drop within the triangle. Classic B wave (abcde) pattern and once the FOMC swing was over (which was pretty mild I thought), the C wave came up. I'm pleased I didn't overexpose going into the FOMC announcement but part of me wishes I had. That's the catch isn't it? Identify your impulses and control them. I don't find it easy. Anyway, the C wave described 5 waves and was 1.62 x "A" so it was time to get out. The very large resistive volume spke helped as well! Reversed to short and was happy to close for a small profit.
Although I don't report my spread betting figures here I had an equivalent small SB short open at the end of the day. I closed the IB short thinking "not much spread, let's get in and out" but kept the SB short open, thinking "I'm not paying 10 point spread for a measly +3 or so". So what happened? Futures tanking down this AM and I've closed that SB short for much more profit. Just a thought ... it's not always about transaction costs. I actually make more money with SB than IB, for identical setups. Must be something to do with closing too soon. Has anyone else noticed the same?
Seeing lots of ABC patterns, so difficult to project out much. Still believe we'll tank down to 9000/9500 soon.
Yesterday saw the finish of a large-ish ABC (3:3:5). By last night we'd retraced 50%.
EWI says much more down to come but they've been saying that for months. They do suggest that we'll need to see proper impulsive waves to the downside but so far we haven't.
Completely out of the market now, so I'll stand back and watch the reaction to the economic news out later.
Good luck all.
Graham