Dow Intraday Charts 08 Nov - 12 Nov

justyn said:
Slightly off topic I know ..... our first baby was due today and her indoors is now in very early labour so I might be busy tomorrow delivering a bundle of joy rather than delivering a bundle of cash to the Dowman

Congratulations Justyn and all the best for you and your family. :)

I suppose you'll be wanting parternity leave from the T2W boards will you? Well don't be away too long we need you here you know.... :)

Regards

Bill


Edit: Oops! On this occasion please ignore signature.
 

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Ah just beaten to the 1 minute by Chartman. I was wondering whether I had interpreted that triangle correctly (albeit too late for entry)...seems roughly so...our venerable teacher must be doing his job well! :D No, seriously, the Dow is starting to make sense to me, and thanks for that are due as ever to u Cman.

Today's breakout was indeed poor of length. After 4-5 days coiling you could reasonably expect 100 points of unleashed energy. But thanks to that, as Michael Winnet would probably say, historic resistance going right back on the weekly we didn't. I know it's SPX, sorry, but as she's leading the charge she'll be the first to run into trouble, I feel. We MUST pull back from here surely. The NDs on the hourlies are screaming (but the price don't care!). Have we had the pop, ready for a drop tomorrow? I'll be keeping an eye on that uptrend line drawn on the ES 30 min chart, then 1163. If these go, heh heh, my swing will be happy.

As I said I was reluctant to buy the breakout (yeah, yeah; country mile...I know! I meant down only, erm...anyway) , so the only thing I managed was a wee short off the 3 pk Tick/RSI ND around 19:35. The preceding volume climax provided encouragement that the move up was nearly exhausted. But not a day to be short for long (A/D ratio was well bullish, participation from majority of indices, breakout etc.) so just a quick scalp for 10. I'd hoped the gap would be closed in the morning for a long but it took off, or should I say ground slowly up in a frustrating fashion, without bothering. Never mind. Missing the pullback to the top of the triangle was silly though. My concentration must have been waning.

I know I'm not a regular here (I intend to change that) but tis still worth saying congrats to Justyn - nice one fella.
 

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Am I pleased or what , don;t know anymore to be honest. :?: I got stopped out finally @ 10460... :mad: couldn't sustain it after that. I lswitched off my PC for the rest of the afternoon as I think I would've made further mistakes to try and claw back the loss of 60 odd points, I have done that before.There 'll be other days, lets see what brings tomorrow with a fresh brain and maybe a different kind of faith in other candlestick signals as I couldn't wait for the buddhas anymore, or a better way is , to accept I was wrong about the buddhas altogether not my faith at all. Well, new day tomorrow looking forward to it... ;)
 
Thanks everyone for the good luck messages. No signs of my mini-me yet today!

0-5 is the best time

Chartman I heard the first 20 years were the worst :confused:

Well don't be away too long we need you here you know....

Bill I know how much you guys rely on me .... when I am convinced we are heading up you all go short and make a killing :LOL:

Good luck everyone today.

Justyn.
 
Congrats justyn,

At the earliest opportunity you need to plonk the babe in front of your trading computer, give him/her a Nison book and say "Right lad, time to earn your keep." :cheesy:
 
Just emerging back into the real world. Looking at this choppy action it looks like I should have stayed in bed. Hope all goes well Justyn and Mrs Justyn - I've got 3 of the little beauties between 3mths and five so according to CM I've got some dark days to look forward too. Actually, my experience so far is that they're great for the first few months (colic aside) then best left alone for a couple of years until they start to turn into little people around three or four!!

Enjoy!!
 
Now that we’re watching the 10 month long 5-wave consolidation break powerfully to the upside, it might seem that the bulls are going some, but looking back a few years, there are precedents to demonstrate the huge rallies that can be the outcome of these of these breakouts…

After the year long consolidation in 1994, the index rallied 800 points before it even paused for breath, and then went on climbing another 2800 points before it made a significant consolidation in 1997….

When the 1997 3-wave consolidation broke out, it rallied 1200 points straight up before a pull-back occurred…….

Nothing to say that anything of that magnitude will happen this time around, but history often teaches us what outcomes might be……

Ps – Congrats to Mr & Mrs Justyn – Will it be a Dowboy or a Dowella……?!….. ;)
 

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NYSE making ATH!
Also there are monster buy signals just around the corner. Maybe an early start of a Christmas Rally. Guess the fuel initially are the shorts forced to buy back. No rebounds yet.

adding a DOW-chart. If it breaks here it could rally up to 11000 without any problems. Same goes for the SPX500 up to 1220 first and later 1250.
 

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Nice day only one play as in the chart... I 'm out of the country for a week's break , and have vowed not to visit any internet cafes or TV for the next week.S
 
sorry forgot to enclose chart, and by the way best of luck to Justyn , i have four of them , and must advise, a few breaks away from them every year is the only thing that keeps me going. :cheesy:
 

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Well a bit of a naff day for me. Made a few points but not enough to buy a bottle of bubbly to celebrate Mini Me's impending arrival! Thanks again for all the congratulatory messages :D

Looked like a choppy tight range at the start that turned into a triangle.

The perfect entry would have been the div at "A".

I played the triangle breakout but when it seemed to struggle to break 500 I got out.

Then after pulling back and finally breaking 500 I had calculated T1 at 510 so no point jumping in that late .. but it carried on to 532. It then looked like a bull flag with target 564 developing but with the divergence and running out of time I threw the towel in.

Hope someone else played it better than me today!

Justyn.
 

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I'm glad you got out Sall. That type of strategy needs deep ,deep pockets and balls of steel. Most have neither.... Great trade for today though.... godd trade for Justyn too, pity about taking the 500- but there was ND there too, so not so bad a decision.
Didn't make my suggested pullback to 550 to test support, but 464 was testd, and that was probably just as good for confirmation.Confirmed RS Switch now- a bit late- and now there's not a lot of room on the topside. So shall we say 564 test and drop to the 100EMA for Monday?
Thanks for the comments Frugi. Appreciated.
 

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I think we all saw the triangle and Justyn got the PD, but did he miss the 3 pk PD? And most importantly, it was across 64 as support. Well worth jumping in at 16:44.... I can see the sense in jumping ship at 500 , especially with the 3pk ND. No point in waiting to see what if.... It's failed T1 at 500 and made the 3 pk ND so out it has to be.
The correct re-entry was easy to spot- from the SR switch and the price breaking 100Ma and puling back at 487. You also had the bull flag, target T2 to back it up as well. OK, not many points from the entry to T2, but then you have to take it. It may not make it, or it may fly past. At the time of entry, you just don't know. You have to take these to take maximum advantage of the big moves.The longer you leave it, the less point there seems to getting in, on a diminishing returns basis. Rabbits and headlights type thing. Been there , done that.
Third hint..... a nice 7pm setup, which I haven't mentioned for a while.

Closing at HOD again two days in a row. So is it going to be same again Monday, contrary to what is there on the 10 min chart.? Best advice is definitely not to try and second guess a top- it might be further away than your pocket can stretch.... :(
At least Sall will be on a win -win. No trades is a winning hand in my book. Have a nice one where ever you're going. :cheesy:
 

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Just had to check the board for a final lesson, as I was bored at after checking in...Glad CM, I'm overjoyed :eek: that at least I followed one of my rules for a change, hopefully it'll lead me to follow a few others like not getting exposed like that again. Anyway India Sun (Goa ) awaits for me.. Good luck to all next week... Thanks ;)
 
Friday 12th November 2004

Back in business today having finally given the lurgy the boot. The trouble is, I've had a bit too much time to think and fiddle with the charts. I'm going to have a look at both 1m and 3m charts today and trade off whichever is giving the best signals, but only in the direction of the higher timeframe (1m in direction of 3m trend, 3m in direction of 10m trend).

Looks like another tight choppy one. Until it breaks out I will look for TLBs on the 1m back to the upside (trend on 3m still long).

11:08 1) L 10477. After potential reversal 1m, TLB on RSI and no change in direction of long trend. Nice move
11:14 EXIT +12.

12:08 2) L 10477. Potential double bottom this time, TLB and still overall looking for longs. Again takes off nicely.
12:15 EXIT +12.

12:29 Breaks above 10500. No follow through. I guess we could mess around this level for a while now.

13:04 3) L 10498. Very risky as right below 10500. Which stops it going anywhere. Stupid.
13:07 EXIT -3.

14:00 Crazy action on release of Fed Minutes but still inside 40 points for the day.

14:32 Looks like it may have broken to the upside for real here and I've missed it. Had a couple of decent entry possibilities too but very cautious in the chop.

14:39 4) L 10524. Chasing this move now so very nervous. Sideways. Then up again.
14:47 EXIT +10. Missed far too much of that move. But then I avoided the chop. Swings and roundabouts.

It's 8pm Friday evening London time and I'm going to call it quits for the week there.


+31 from 4
+27 for the day after commissions
+75 for November so far after commissions (6 days of trading)
 

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