tradesmart
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Tradesmart that reminds me - I must get the wife that karaoke machine she wants for xmas :cheesy:
Looks like we are sitting on a long term support line and it could also be an expanding triangle.
If we don't plunge down through 432 then maybe we can see the start of the Crimbo rally tomorrow.
Ho Ho Ho.
Justyn.
Looks like we are sitting on a long term support line and it could also be an expanding triangle.
If we don't plunge down through 432 then maybe we can see the start of the Crimbo rally tomorrow.
Ho Ho Ho.
Justyn.
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Tricky, very tricky. Looked up one minute, looked down the next, then up, yo-yo. Dropping 32 on the 3rd stroke was the short you were looking for Debs....
When I saw the SR switch, I started to think "short"..
Quite often on a down only day ( sort of) no amount of PD will call a bottom. As always, getting out on the first one at 460 was no bad thing. Same as Debs getting out at the top on 64.(59)
Take what it gives you, then have a cuppa....
When I saw the SR switch, I started to think "short"..
Quite often on a down only day ( sort of) no amount of PD will call a bottom. As always, getting out on the first one at 460 was no bad thing. Same as Debs getting out at the top on 64.(59)
Take what it gives you, then have a cuppa....
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tradesmart
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Assuming that support in the low 10400’s holds, maybe we are seeing a shallow c.200 point uptrend channel developing….?
Rather ironic that now the markets' hopes of a fall in the oil price have been realised, yesterday’s tanking was reported caused by oil company stocks selling off…..!?.....
(apart from a large $3.3 billion sale of electronic S&P futures hitting the tape – generally bearish in itself imho……)
ps - Gollom - I also use SierraCharts/MyTrack
Rather ironic that now the markets' hopes of a fall in the oil price have been realised, yesterday’s tanking was reported caused by oil company stocks selling off…..!?.....
(apart from a large $3.3 billion sale of electronic S&P futures hitting the tape – generally bearish in itself imho……)
ps - Gollom - I also use SierraCharts/MyTrack
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china white
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sorry chaps if i may - i know it's a TA forum but I think i have to say it anyway.
in no way am i encouraging anyone to trade on monthly statistics over the past century but the only Dec I saw really bad was that of 2000 - when ppl actually stayed short into Xmas - only to get whipped by unexpected Fed's rate cut on Jan 3rd 2001.
in present market conditions, imagine u r a floor boy with 5+ mln quid delta limit, how wud u approach your guv to explain the reasoning behind opening a new short into Xmas - or even staying short into it?
I am not saying we won't drop but ANY drop will have to be after NY
in no way am i encouraging anyone to trade on monthly statistics over the past century
but the only Dec I saw really bad was that of 2000 - when ppl actually stayed short into Xmas - only to get whipped by unexpected Fed's rate cut on Jan 3rd 2001.in present market conditions, imagine u r a floor boy with 5+ mln quid delta limit, how wud u approach your guv to explain the reasoning behind opening a new short into Xmas - or even staying short into it?
I am not saying we won't drop but ANY drop will have to be after NY
TraderTony
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Wednesday 8th December 2004
10:00 1) L 10475 on pull back up off 100 ema. Moving. Struggling at 480 level. Above then sharply back down.
15:03 EXIT: +1. Went +9 and I had a target at +10 to get some early points in the bag.
10:56 2) S 10468. On possible breakdown but at end of a long bar.. No immediate follow through. Then moving. I'm going for 10 again as no clear direction in market yet.
11:00 EXIT: +10. Target exit worked well this time.
11:39 3) L10485. Could have got in one bar earlier and ended up chasing.
11:43 EXIT: -3.
11:44 4) L 10486. I'm not good at re-entering but here goes. Soaring. Hits 500. Decisions decisions.
11:48 EXIT: +15. On a target as it appear to hit resistance.
Then missed the lovely ND for 10 back down again.
Saw the ND at 13:32 but didn't take it as I was uncomfortable taking a CT trade right into the 10500 level. Which turned out to be a bit stupid because it hit it pretty quickly (although it did then hold). So half right, half wrong. And no better off.
I can't trade the evening as I have to look after the kids (while watching the footie of course) as the good lady is off out. I'd like one more good one before I leave.
Well, no more set ups for me by 7pm (UK time) so that's my time up. I did OK, but I missed a couple of good ones too.
+23 from 4
+19 for the day after commissions
+76 for December so far after commissions (6 days of trading)
Will post charts later - I hope you all have a profitable evening.
10:00 1) L 10475 on pull back up off 100 ema. Moving. Struggling at 480 level. Above then sharply back down.
15:03 EXIT: +1. Went +9 and I had a target at +10 to get some early points in the bag.
10:56 2) S 10468. On possible breakdown but at end of a long bar.. No immediate follow through. Then moving. I'm going for 10 again as no clear direction in market yet.
11:00 EXIT: +10. Target exit worked well this time.
11:39 3) L10485. Could have got in one bar earlier and ended up chasing.
11:43 EXIT: -3.
11:44 4) L 10486. I'm not good at re-entering but here goes. Soaring. Hits 500. Decisions decisions.
11:48 EXIT: +15. On a target as it appear to hit resistance.
Then missed the lovely ND for 10 back down again.
Saw the ND at 13:32 but didn't take it as I was uncomfortable taking a CT trade right into the 10500 level. Which turned out to be a bit stupid because it hit it pretty quickly (although it did then hold). So half right, half wrong. And no better off.
I can't trade the evening as I have to look after the kids (while watching the footie of course) as the good lady is off out. I'd like one more good one before I leave.
Well, no more set ups for me by 7pm (UK time) so that's my time up. I did OK, but I missed a couple of good ones too.
+23 from 4
+19 for the day after commissions
+76 for December so far after commissions (6 days of trading)
Will post charts later - I hope you all have a profitable evening.
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Last edited:
WED 8 DEC
9:59 ENTER long at 10466 (ema-10462 sl-10442). Entered on PB to ema.
10:39 EXIT at 10483 for a gain of 17 pts. I had previously marked 10484 as a resistance area. There is always a conflict in my mind between the phrases - ‘cut your losses and let your profits run’ and ‘a profit is not a profit until you’ve banked it”.
It’s hard to exit when things are going my way. But taking the profits while they are there seems to be paying off with day-trading. I comfort myself by saying I can always re-enter later.
10:57 It has fallen back down to 10461, so looks like taking the points on the last trade has paid off again.
12:03 ENTER long at 10479 (ema-10474, sl-10454). I missed a good run up to 10495, but here is a chance to enter on a PB.
13:21 EXIT at 10500 for a gain of 21 pts. I am wondering if 500 will provide resistance. Once again I decide to take the pts as I can always re-enter if it breaks 10500 decisively.
13:51 I am very tempted to get back in at 10493. I don’t want to miss any big run up thru the 500 level. But I remind myself that 500 might still provide resistance....so I decide to be patient.
Two trades +17+21=38 pts (excl costs).
If I had been using my SB account, I would have only made 4 pts profit on the first trade. What a huge difference that would make to the results, it would hardly be worth the risk of entering the trade. I would have to let the profits run if I was spread-betting. But the longer I stay in the trade, the more risk of things going against me. Hmm......
If I had entered the first trade at 9:59 and stuck with the “exit on ema +/- 20 rule”, despite all the oscillations around the ema, this would have kept me in the trade all day. I would have exited 10mins before the close of day at 10494, giving a gain of 28 pts (excl costs).
Debs
9:59 ENTER long at 10466 (ema-10462 sl-10442). Entered on PB to ema.
10:39 EXIT at 10483 for a gain of 17 pts. I had previously marked 10484 as a resistance area. There is always a conflict in my mind between the phrases - ‘cut your losses and let your profits run’ and ‘a profit is not a profit until you’ve banked it”.
It’s hard to exit when things are going my way. But taking the profits while they are there seems to be paying off with day-trading. I comfort myself by saying I can always re-enter later.
10:57 It has fallen back down to 10461, so looks like taking the points on the last trade has paid off again.
12:03 ENTER long at 10479 (ema-10474, sl-10454). I missed a good run up to 10495, but here is a chance to enter on a PB.
13:21 EXIT at 10500 for a gain of 21 pts. I am wondering if 500 will provide resistance. Once again I decide to take the pts as I can always re-enter if it breaks 10500 decisively.
13:51 I am very tempted to get back in at 10493. I don’t want to miss any big run up thru the 500 level. But I remind myself that 500 might still provide resistance....so I decide to be patient.
Two trades +17+21=38 pts (excl costs).
If I had been using my SB account, I would have only made 4 pts profit on the first trade. What a huge difference that would make to the results, it would hardly be worth the risk of entering the trade. I would have to let the profits run if I was spread-betting. But the longer I stay in the trade, the more risk of things going against me. Hmm......
If I had entered the first trade at 9:59 and stuck with the “exit on ema +/- 20 rule”, despite all the oscillations around the ema, this would have kept me in the trade all day. I would have exited 10mins before the close of day at 10494, giving a gain of 28 pts (excl costs).
Debs
China Interesting observations. I have two....... One is that a rolling top has re-appeared.... the second is "history repeats"... look at the four lines on RSI- all of them showing RS Switches,each lasting 3 days.There's that number 3 again.... today we have another possible RS Switch. So we should go up. I think TS pointed out the broader long term 200 point channel. Channel top is 664...
NB this is a 15 min chart, not the usual 10 min.
NB this is a 15 min chart, not the usual 10 min.
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TraderTony said:
TT - after the frustration of the last 2 days, it is good to see you are back on form. I know you trade the futures and I follow the Dow, but the first trade looks very similar to mine. Was your exit at 10:03 or 10:15? I look forward to seeing your chart.....D.
Another tricky day with interesting comments from Debs. Quite correctly, she points out that entering at 9:59 and staying in by virtue of the 100MA rules, she would have made 28 points. Now what would a newbie have done without the rules. I think we all know the answer. OK a boring day, but they avoided a major A** kicking by way of whipsaws and ended up with a bit more cash in the bank to carry on tomorrow.Think about it..... 28 points is a GOOD result on any day.
Anyway, I digress. The only safe setup that I can see is the Inv H&S breaking through the 100MA at 464. Assume you got in at 70, there were two outs at T1 for 20+. I would have also taken the triangle breakout at 490 with a stop at just under 480. OK so it didn't go far, but you don't know that at the time, except that the target was T2. Exit was a hard play , as there looked more in it, but it never happened. IF you held on ( why?) you got a second shot at 505 and out.... You don't often get a second chance in this game.....
Anyway, I digress. The only safe setup that I can see is the Inv H&S breaking through the 100MA at 464. Assume you got in at 70, there were two outs at T1 for 20+. I would have also taken the triangle breakout at 490 with a stop at just under 480. OK so it didn't go far, but you don't know that at the time, except that the target was T2. Exit was a hard play , as there looked more in it, but it never happened. IF you held on ( why?) you got a second shot at 505 and out.... You don't often get a second chance in this game.....
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Bigbusiness
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china white said:sorry chaps if i may - i know it's a TA forum but I think i have to say it anyway.
in no way am i encouraging anyone to trade on monthly statistics over the past century
in present market conditions, imagine u r a floor boy with 5+ mln quid delta limit, how wud u approach your guv to explain the reasoning behind opening a new short into Xmas - or even staying short into it?
I am not saying we won't drop but ANY drop will have to be after NY
December 2002 doesn't look that good on my charts. There was around a 700pt fall from the highs to the lows.
china white
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Bigbusiness said:
BB - I am talking more along the lines of relative Dec performance to other months. In 2002 Dec was not an ander-performer taking into acct what happened in that yr. In Dec 2002 I wud have no probs explaining to my guv why I want to keep my put position - both from directional and volatility perspectives.
Now how wud I go about same thing now?
I am afraid it is one of those set ups when no matter what u think (or what TA, sentiment, trader's commitment etc..... r telling u), u just cannot sell.... not until the first week of Jan at least
I will even go as far as arguing that a quick Santa rally to 1230 is the best case scenario for bears.
roguetrader
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Ok I have a question at thia point, most books I've read warn against going against "the trend" which I accept as good advice. They also say that the and of a trend usually comes about once the masses get to know about it, something I have seen to some degree or another. My question is this. If a trend such as the "santa rally" or whatever you want to call it , is being touted all over the financial programes and just about every financial post you care to mention, it is safe to assume "the masses know about it, and the big boys won't / can't short into it, how does it actually end? Don't get me wrong I'm not advocating shorting into xmas, but I'm curious as to how these trends come to an end.
china white
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roguetrader said:
RG - u may not like my answer
The bonuses are normally paid out in late Feb but finalised in the 1st half of Jan. Most boys are actually quite happy with 2004. The safest way to play now is NOT to lose any big money before year end - so boys r much less likely to take agressive positions now. And what wud be an agressive position now? Long or Short?
roguetrader
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china white said:RG - u may not like my answer
The bonuses are normally paid out in late Feb but finalised in the 1st half of Jan. Most boys are actually quite happy with 2004. The safest way to play now is NOT to lose any big money before year end - so boys r much less likely to take agressive positions now. And what wud be an agressive position now? Long or Short?
No that's cool, makes perfect sense, the only issue I have with it, that why assume a significant correction requires the initiation of short positions, after a fairly healthy run up surely a healthy dose of profit taking would produce a similar effect at this point, and would also set the market up for a good run into the new year.
