tradesmart
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look after the beer money, and the bills take care of themselves....! 
(is that the old saying.........? )
(is that the old saying.........?
)
hmm retest of 10560 looks prob im hedged at the minute short dow 10602 long ndx 1474 favour the old dow melting , would be good for it to have a look at 10480 , weekly long term support, maybe its looking for too much today. and the ndx needs to refail 1474. lets see what it does
jd
jd
chartman...
may i ask what had you able to stay in to the very top?earlier on and nail the full rally? i know you teach trading the dow professionally, so i'll resist asking too many q's.....is it that you're not overly concerned what comes of the days trading [as long as it's profitable!] in asmuchas there is a suggestion that you don't trade for a living as such? and so can leave the trade to run until you see a very clear reason to close on the technicals? [this isn't meant rudely...i'm at the other end of the scale and seem for ever to steal a few points then panick on re-entry---and, for me, this has to work or it's the dole!road accident..can't work toowell boring boring etc
you consistantly nail the lows and tops day in day out --i must admit i , too, see them most of the time[if only because of elliott][pl. forgive the seeming conceit..it's not meant to be a boast..if it were it's an empty one and i wouldn't need to ask you the question!!] but in just as many times i am too trauma'd from huge losses a while ago to trade them!!! now you know why i got into elliott for its precision[?!!] but i'm wondering if it's not become an intellectual foil for avoiding too much [if any at the moment!] trading
anyway..pl feel free to rub this post out..but if you can say how you stayed in i for one would be very grateful
regards
and thanks TS for your reply earlier
stuart
may i ask what had you able to stay in to the very top?earlier on and nail the full rally? i know you teach trading the dow professionally, so i'll resist asking too many q's.....is it that you're not overly concerned what comes of the days trading [as long as it's profitable!] in asmuchas there is a suggestion that you don't trade for a living as such? and so can leave the trade to run until you see a very clear reason to close on the technicals? [this isn't meant rudely...i'm at the other end of the scale and seem for ever to steal a few points then panick on re-entry---and, for me, this has to work or it's the dole!road accident..can't work toowell boring boring etc
you consistantly nail the lows and tops day in day out --i must admit i , too, see them most of the time[if only because of elliott][pl. forgive the seeming conceit..it's not meant to be a boast..if it were it's an empty one and i wouldn't need to ask you the question!!] but in just as many times i am too trauma'd from huge losses a while ago to trade them!!! now you know why i got into elliott for its precision[?!!] but i'm wondering if it's not become an intellectual foil for avoiding too much [if any at the moment!] trading
anyway..pl feel free to rub this post out..but if you can say how you stayed in i for one would be very grateful
regards
and thanks TS for your reply earlier
stuart
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Excellent and honest post wellshot
I to are greatly impressed with your grasp of wave theory in its purest form. Elliott is a great analytical tool, combined with other market studies ( Gartley ect..) which use Sacred Geometry. I myself trade on wave theory but its only one tool in box so to speak... From an ES traders view point I love predictable patterns based purely on price formation.... DT/DB's on geo ratio's, 1:1's
Retracements, Sq9, Bat's ect... you name it there will be orders placed at these levels and its our duty ( as it was drummed in) to exploit the dumb money at these key points..If my order is with the dumb money.. its killed or reversed.. no ifs or buts just move on.
I can see where your coming from on the precision side, the geometry gives this... but it must be combined with price pattern, 3 day trend, balance points, 2 bar momentum ,Hooks,OSR's.. ect..ect.. in order to maximise its potential..Know what the opposition is using and exploit it ( no offence intended to the indicator users) :cheesy: Knowing this gives you confidence to take the trade and manage it correctly..ie cut or let run.
Forgive me if I'm going off at a tangent .. your post says trade or dole..so its vital you have all the skills to win at this game Elliott alone will not give you the edge IMHO :?:
Cheers CJ
Back to Lurking
Chartman please feel free to kill this post if its of "track" so to speak
The Chart below is from the no indicators thread..
I to are greatly impressed with your grasp of wave theory in its purest form. Elliott is a great analytical tool, combined with other market studies ( Gartley ect..) which use Sacred Geometry. I myself trade on wave theory but its only one tool in box so to speak... From an ES traders view point I love predictable patterns based purely on price formation.... DT/DB's on geo ratio's, 1:1's
Retracements, Sq9, Bat's ect... you name it there will be orders placed at these levels and its our duty ( as it was drummed in) to exploit the dumb money at these key points..If my order is with the dumb money..
its killed or reversed.. no ifs or buts just move on. I can see where your coming from on the precision side, the geometry gives this...
but it must be combined with price pattern, 3 day trend, balance points, 2 bar momentum ,Hooks,OSR's.. ect..ect.. in order to maximise its potential..Know what the opposition is using and exploit it ( no offence intended to the indicator users) :cheesy: Knowing this gives you confidence to take the trade and manage it correctly..ie cut or let run.Forgive me if I'm going off at a tangent
.. your post says trade or dole..so its vital you have all the skills to win at this game Elliott alone will not give you the edge IMHO :?: Cheers CJ
Back to Lurking
Chartman please feel free to kill this post if its of "track" so to speak
The Chart below is from the no indicators thread..
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Last edited:
tradesmart
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Magnificent day for trading with over 350 points on the table……! :cheesy:
However, not everyone is happy……
Irritated that interest rates hikes are on hold again, and also dismayed by suggestions that he should have retired 20 years ago, Big Al gives the world “the finger”…..
ps- commiserations to those (like me ) with Dow Comp entries north of 700.....
However, not everyone is happy……
Irritated that interest rates hikes are on hold again, and also dismayed by suggestions that he should have retired 20 years ago, Big Al gives the world “the finger”…..
ps- commiserations to those (like me
) with Dow Comp entries north of 700.....Attachments
Not at all, either of you. Let me correct a couple of points , WellsShot . I cannot be considered as a professional teacher of the Dow and you're not being rude. You are also correct in that I don't trade for a living. I trade for fun , and infrequently at that and there in lies the BIG difference. I don't have any pressure to deliver results. I trade when I have time and when I fancy. I trade as both a "gambler" and I trade for serious. I really don't know if I could ever cut it as a full time trader, having to rely on winnings to make a living. Those that do have my utmost respect.
Now then. As to calling tops and bottoms consistently.... It depends on what you are referring to. If you are referring to my daily analysis, yes it's true, but anyone can do that.If you are referring to when I post real time on the bb, yes, I get some good calls, but as you can see from today, the gambler side of me took over and I took a half trade when I should have packed up shop.
So how did I nail the top? It's down to knowing (guessing- no-one actually can know) what the Dow will do after a given set of circumstances. This knowledge or expectation can only be gained with time. In this particular case, the news drop was followed by an excellent rally. From this we can expect , for sure , a 3 peak NDs top. Well, having got the first two, the third comes after an equal period of time, give or take. The first clue of continuation was the smaller second pullback. At the expected third peak at 16:30 the ND had already broken it's expected form. From this, I took the formation to be a triangle with a target of 604. It touched that and dropped, so why not close? Take a look at the size of the pullbacks. I normally expect to see 20 odd points in a good rally. We were getting 6 -12. This tells me the bears have no balls. Just the suckers trying to guess the drop, or early sellers cashing in a panick gain.
So, having passed the ND situation and the triangle went past target what's the next likely sign of a top? It will be swift. There's no chance now of another shot at a 3 pk ND top, so I look for volume action on ES, RSI seriously overbought, ( >80) or a D/top. as it happened, we got a D/top with short divergence, so I closed. OK so it went up a couple of more points.
Now why didn't I short the top like others?
I can understand your trauma from a big loss too. There's no easy way round that because you are forced to trade to make a living. You can't make a living trading a penny a point and few have the luxury of trading £100 per point and only have to make a few points a day to make a good living. The answer for me was to reduce the stake size to a point where the fear of loss was non existent, to the point where I was able to concentrate on what was really going on, instead of how much cash I was winning or losing. From what you say, it seems you are stuck between a brick wall and a hard place. I don't have an answer for that.
I know this much. You can't trade the Dow well, just by looking at the Dow. You need outside assistance by way of ES and it's volume , or NDX as some others prefer.
Now then. As to calling tops and bottoms consistently.... It depends on what you are referring to. If you are referring to my daily analysis, yes it's true, but anyone can do that.If you are referring to when I post real time on the bb, yes, I get some good calls, but as you can see from today, the gambler side of me took over and I took a half trade when I should have packed up shop.
So how did I nail the top? It's down to knowing (guessing- no-one actually can know) what the Dow will do after a given set of circumstances. This knowledge or expectation can only be gained with time. In this particular case, the news drop was followed by an excellent rally. From this we can expect , for sure , a 3 peak NDs top. Well, having got the first two, the third comes after an equal period of time, give or take. The first clue of continuation was the smaller second pullback. At the expected third peak at 16:30 the ND had already broken it's expected form. From this, I took the formation to be a triangle with a target of 604. It touched that and dropped, so why not close? Take a look at the size of the pullbacks. I normally expect to see 20 odd points in a good rally. We were getting 6 -12. This tells me the bears have no balls. Just the suckers trying to guess the drop, or early sellers cashing in a panick gain.
So, having passed the ND situation and the triangle went past target what's the next likely sign of a top? It will be swift. There's no chance now of another shot at a 3 pk ND top, so I look for volume action on ES, RSI seriously overbought, ( >80) or a D/top. as it happened, we got a D/top with short divergence, so I closed. OK so it went up a couple of more points.
Now why didn't I short the top like others?
I can understand your trauma from a big loss too. There's no easy way round that because you are forced to trade to make a living. You can't make a living trading a penny a point and few have the luxury of trading £100 per point and only have to make a few points a day to make a good living. The answer for me was to reduce the stake size to a point where the fear of loss was non existent, to the point where I was able to concentrate on what was really going on, instead of how much cash I was winning or losing. From what you say, it seems you are stuck between a brick wall and a hard place. I don't have an answer for that.
I know this much. You can't trade the Dow well, just by looking at the Dow. You need outside assistance by way of ES and it's volume , or NDX as some others prefer.
hmmm indecision at these levels, spilling the break out party into next week, cant see it holding the range though due to long term weekly support line as yet we have yet to test that on the dow sub 500 i would of thought we will have a look.
still bearish on this beast having sold off at 750, 700, 650, and not holding 600 maybe 600 will be the high zone point of next week.
nasdaq failing 1482 &1474 adds to my gloom for the dow.
still at least it should provide a few volatile sessions next week.
overall if i was an investor the fact that rates may have to be held to help economy even more is just too much of an unknown gamble for earnings and job expansion, the companies are lean cost cuts and job cuts, valuations for stock are ones of guidelined optimism beyond average. No chance..
who wants 2 for a pound?..... dollars that is.
Weve topped.
just my 1 penny for 2 cents worth..
jd.
still bearish on this beast having sold off at 750, 700, 650, and not holding 600 maybe 600 will be the high zone point of next week.
nasdaq failing 1482 &1474 adds to my gloom for the dow.
still at least it should provide a few volatile sessions next week.
overall if i was an investor the fact that rates may have to be held to help economy even more is just too much of an unknown gamble for earnings and job expansion, the companies are lean cost cuts and job cuts, valuations for stock are ones of guidelined optimism beyond average. No chance..
who wants 2 for a pound?..... dollars that is.
Weve topped.
just my 1 penny for 2 cents worth..
jd.
Following on..... why did I go long at 531? ES was already divergent from just before the open.Easy choice and with RSI at 10 and CCI at a staggering - 800 there was really only one way it was going to go. My good efforts today were wiped out by two basic errors. - Not going short at the top and then taking a half stake long at 610. That's the gambler in me. I'm not sure where TS gets 350 from, I made it 250 ish on the Dow and 36 ish in ES. Someone commented on the extra volatility of ES today....
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thank you
chartman for that ...it has helped a good deal.
i dare say it will come again whereuopon i'll enjoy the work
there is something of a truth, i believe, in being "in a good place" mentally such that what lies within is reflected " without" ..i.e. relaxed patient trading [should]yields good results over the long term should your approach be diligent and governed by a willingness to follow the markets direction , rather than bully, coerce and harass ourselves for results that smell , to me, of immediate gratification.[scalping!] --sorry scalpers-i scalp!]
my crap pub philosophy but one i believe in. here's to one believing in oneself.... however one chooses to define it!
thanks too A320 for your appreciativehelpful comment..i'm moving away a little from elliott and going back to basics[?] with chart patterns and the macd histogram ND/PD .. never fails!
chartman for that ...it has helped a good deal.
i dare say it will come again whereuopon i'll enjoy the work
there is something of a truth, i believe, in being "in a good place" mentally such that what lies within is reflected " without" ..i.e. relaxed patient trading [should]yields good results over the long term should your approach be diligent and governed by a willingness to follow the markets direction , rather than bully, coerce and harass ourselves for results that smell , to me, of immediate gratification.[scalping!] --sorry scalpers-i scalp!]
my crap pub philosophy but one i believe in. here's to one believing in oneself.... however one chooses to define it!
thanks too A320 for your appreciativehelpful comment
Don't neglect the Elliott wellshot
It's a powerful tool... maybe filter it into an X-ABCD system like Gartley ect.. to find the ratio rhythm, or just use the "3 drives" or law of alternation to filter high probability trades in conjunction with the other signals...such as indicators if it suits your style :?: Or just price if your a scalper like myself
Elliott / Gann/ Gartley even [Wilder] were[are] into esoteric side of things...the market is well aware of this fact and burns people accordingly so it pays to know where these "followers" are coming from.. and how we as traders can exploit these levels in the market.
Keep at it wellshot and I enjoy your wave counts
CJ :
from my other post..
SQ9 = Gann Square of Nine
OSR= Out-Side-Reversal [bar]
Hook = Market begins trading in the opposite direction to the 3 day trend..then crosses the back over the opening level.. you would take the Hook in the direction of the 3 day trend .
Thx for the mail
It's a powerful tool... maybe filter it into an X-ABCD system like Gartley ect.. to find the ratio rhythm, or just use the "3 drives" or law of alternation to filter high probability trades in conjunction with the other signals...such as indicators if it suits your style :?: Or just price if your a scalper like myself
Elliott / Gann/ Gartley even [Wilder] were[are] into esoteric side of things...the market is well aware of this fact and burns people accordingly
so it pays to know where these "followers" are coming from.. and how we as traders can exploit these levels in the market.Keep at it wellshot and I enjoy your wave counts
CJ :
from my other post..
SQ9 = Gann Square of Nine
OSR= Out-Side-Reversal [bar]
Hook = Market begins trading in the opposite direction to the 3 day trend..then crosses the back over the opening level.. you would take the Hook in the direction of the 3 day trend .
Thx for the mail
One Eyed Shark
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Wellshot
Like you I follow MACD PD/ND, one aspect I have found priceless in trading the 1st hour is to use crossovers on the 3 min chart to call bottoms and tops, on both Mon & Fri last week using the 3 min crossover paid well in early trading, though I must point out that the setup will only work on a YM chart and not the Dow.
Like you I follow MACD PD/ND, one aspect I have found priceless in trading the 1st hour is to use crossovers on the 3 min chart to call bottoms and tops, on both Mon & Fri last week using the 3 min crossover paid well in early trading, though I must point out that the setup will only work on a YM chart and not the Dow.
