Dow 2009

[solentsurfer]

Many Longs are looking at closing their positions at the open today - consensus feels the prices have been bid up way too high.

Expect moves to the downside --- wouldn't surprise me if you get very big move to the downside.

USD/YEN is below 95 from 98 yesterday - it predicted the bear market rally before it happened it is now predicting the sell off - yes yes dollar can only weaken but the economy is screwed and buying at these levels is insane

You may be right but it's a crazy market - consensus this morning has pushed futures up a little and the Dow (and S&P) still firmly in their rising channel on the hourly and daily charts. A big move either way wouldn't surprise me :!:

A drop below 7350 would be my signal for a punt to the downside. Until then I'm trying to ignore fundamentals, common sense or anything else other than what the price is doing. Have a long term long June 09 Future from 6886 but will be watching carefully today.

 

[solentsurfer]

You may be right but it's a crazy market - consensus this morning has pushed futures up a little and the Dow (and S&P) still firmly in their rising channel on the hourly and daily charts. A big move either way wouldn't surprise me :!:

A drop below 7350 would be my signal for a punt to the downside. Until then I'm trying to ignore fundamentals, common sense or anything else other than what the price is doing. Have a long term long June 09 Future from 6886 but will be watching carefully today.

 

[Atilla]

Based on pivot points looks like DOW is heading to test 7290...

 

[Atilla]

Based on pivot points looks like DOW is heading to test 7290...

Will 7290 hold???

I'm feeling void of head space...

50/50 Heads or Tails??? - Heads up to 7433 or Tails down to 7225???


Tails it tanks to 7225... It's Friday and people should really sell and go home...

 

[KUTERO]

7400 was too important.
watch the 7197 ( min of Oct.2002) in next week..

 

[wallstreet1928]

Hello there guys, geezers, friends, trader buddies across the pond

I hate trading the DOW due to the extreme volatility, but I have decided to give it another go

So I will attempt to post my analysis and live trades on here and see how it goes?

I will be using a 40 point stop loss on all trades, and i would be interested in finding out what stop losses other people use on this thread

So here goes my friends

multiple time frame trend line analysis

1 yr daily chart

Stochastics showing a nice shorting opportunity

blue trend lines - Dow trading within a good channel, solid resistance at 7600 & 50 MA.....If it attempts to pop its head up again I will be more than happy to short again from there!!!

red trend line- currently active and any break above(require confirmation and is very unlikely in my book) would be an opportunity to go long and if remains below then i will carry on shorting

 

[irastorza]

Long and strong trendline, we will see the next week if the dow can break the trendline.

 

[stefan10]

Hello there guys, geezers, friends, trader buddies across the pond

I hate trading the DOW due to the extreme volatility, but I have decided to give it another go

So I will attempt to post my analysis and live trades on here and see how it goes?

I will be using a 40 point stop loss on all trades, and i would be interested in finding out what stop losses other people use on this thread

So here goes my friends

multiple time frame trend line analysis

1 yr daily chart

Stochastics showing a nice shorting opportunity

blue trend lines - Dow trading within a good channel, solid resistance at 7600 & 50 MA.....If it attempts to pop its head up again I will be more than happy to short again from there!!!

red trend line- currently active and any break above(require confirmation and is very unlikely in my book) would be an opportunity to go long and if remains below then i will carry on shorting

Hi mate how are u , hope u keeping well.

When you say you will be trading the Dow again , do you mean day trading and scalping, or swing trading? because if its scapling isnt a 40 point stop loss too much risk?

 

[solentsurfer]

Hi mate how are u , hope u keeping well.

When you say you will be trading the Dow again , do you mean day trading and scalping, or swing trading? because if its scapling isnt a 40 point stop loss too much risk?

I'd say it depends on your set up, time frame and profit target. Swing trading you'll get whipsawed to hell and back with only 40 points - death by a thousand stops.

 

[wallstreet1928]

I'd say it depends on your set up, time frame and profit target. Swing trading you'll get whipsawed to hell and back with only 40 points - death by a thousand stops.

yes indeed, you are very true hence the reason why I never trade it, i trade the S&P........

I have my monthly target already and above so i am thinking of using the excess profits at having another go at the DOW................

 

[wallstreet1928]

Hi mate how are u , hope u keeping well.

When you say you will be trading the Dow again , do you mean day trading and scalping, or swing trading? because if its scapling isnt a 40 point stop loss too much risk?

yes day trading/scalping ...............

I read a research article once and it stated the optimal stop loss level on US indices is 40 points and European indices is 25-30 points

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

The economy is down the toilet it won't recover for a long while - we haven't seen the worse and yet the market is rallying.

This market is overvalued these levels can not be sustained.

 

[moonwalker]

quite a day. too bad i don't have a position.

 

[SSINGH]

The economy is down the toilet it won't recover for a long while - we haven't seen the worse and yet the market is rallying.

This market is overvalued these levels can not be sustained.

would I be correct in assuming that you are short for the dow?

 

[Atilla]

The economy is down the toilet it won't recover for a long while - we haven't seen the worse and yet the market is rallying.

This market is overvalued these levels can not be sustained.

Short it then... :idea:

15m pin bar says it's going to come off to 7673 Fib 23% retrace levels or even 7593 before another leg up...

 

[solentsurfer]

A break either way could lead to 100 points. Looks like up, which would take us to around 8100, 62% fib retracement from lows - subject to resitance and double top at yesterdays highs.

 

[SSINGH]

I'm placing a short around here....i'm not convinced on too much further upside....only a small trade.

 

[DSL]

looks like 7 650

 

[solentsurfer]

looks like 7 650

Yes... I think you could be right, a round trip day and maybe beyond. If we do fall back it could easily be down to 7400/7300 by the end of the week

 

[Atilla]

Yes... I think you could be right, a round trip day and maybe beyond. If we do fall back it could easily be down to 7400/7300 by the end of the week

7558 is R2 according to my Pivot points and would expect some bounce from here.

I'm just gone long for a quick scalp with tight SL.

If 7520-40 fails then we can sing lower imo.