As it stands now the crash of 2008 has been worse than that of 1929. A frightening statistic shows that after 513 calendar days the S&P 500 is down 56 percent while the Dow is off 53 percent. By the same 513 days in 1931 the S&P was down 49 percent and the Dow was off by 56 percent. The current decline has accelerated to catch up with the historical decline.
The Emini is down 58% since October 2007. How about a decent bear market rally? During the last bear market, 2001 to 2003, the rallies were preceded by some strength in the Commitment of Traders data - bullish divergences.
In this week's Commitment of Traders numbers the Professionals continue to be heavily short, in fact, they have added to their short positions. They increased their net Short positions from -11.0% to -12.6% of total open interest.
The SP (large contract) Professionals are still more bearish than the ES (mini contract) Professionals. Back testing shows the SP Professionals are a more reliable indicator of market direction.