Dow 2008

[houdani]

12118? what today? that would be a shocker.

 

[leovirgo]

Volume on the positive side now!

 

[dc2000]

12118? what today? that would be a shocker.

sorry should have said that was based on monthly price bar for a positional trade

 

[houdani]

no worries that was said a bit tongue in cheek anyway,looking for a low in the next half hour myself to long.break yesterdays low though and i could see your numbers coming in.

 

[dc2000]

overnight time having sat most of day out if we make a new high next 25 mins I short close pullback and I long close just trying something with small beans

 

[dc2000]

long now 12865 march looking for 100 points early in the morning

 

[Atilla]

Amazing day today. :whistling What turns near the days closing session :-0

I was expecting a rise to 12800-13000 levels but not so soon. In fact the tear down and bounce back up is quite something else. I have entered the two blue arrows to show days price action and that the two possible red neck lines to the H&S have both been touched.

The big question is what to expect next. Based on Sunday evening analysis from last week now that the two neck lines have been touched, I have to stick to my plan and expect a fall is due. As for timing I'm not sure. I will wait to confirm the neckline holds and is not breached coupled with falls below 12800 as first signs of the big drop. 12750 would be sure signs.

Breach of 12500-600 levels means 12170 is on target. I'm not an Elliot specialist but looking at the elevator down I can see a possible 5 wave step down to a final resting stop of 11880 levels. This compliments the larger H&S formation building since last year showing the reversal in the long term trend perhaps.

As a caution I should add that if the neck line is breached as a consequence of uncle Bens rate cuts then all bets are off and a rise above 13000s to 13300 may well be possible. I'm 70/30 for the down ward move but such is life.

Good trading everyone...

 

[Hook Shot]

More Gibberish from the Hookster...

Markets are very exciting .... I know some won't like me saying that but hey...

At 735 now we are 100 ish from thurs lows and 230ish from new swing lows...
the trend is down so those centuries look attractive.... However, we are 200ish from Thurs highs which I slapped since it was a big run up in 2d but more importantly ~25% of the move off the ath ...... didn't expect to get this low so quickly but I took it :clapposs prematurely who knows ?)

So wtf am I saying ....... the market must take out 930 to continue the advance... and from here if that happens that's luvly..... My "fear" is we see 632.........500 even since counter trends have not been sticking and thurs was only one day up.... and now look what's happened .... 200pt peel off...

I'm not really fearful it's just having taken profits on my short off 930 zone...... I'm sort of in no man's land..... may have to morph into a day trader temporarily to get back on side.............:cheesy:

 

[Devilicus]

long now 12865 march looking for 100 points early in the morning

Whats the cash equivilent of that, DC?

Im trying a long here at 12700 (cash) - 50 pip stop

 

[Devilicus]

Im trying a long here at 12700 (cash) - 50 pip stop

Closing half here at 12740 for 40 pips profit. Letting the other half run with a stop at B/E

 

[dc2000]

Whats the cash equivilent of that, DC?

Im trying a long here at 12700 (cash) - 50 pip stop

equiv would be 815 I was trying something new and the first trade failed ( dont ya hate it when that happens) its only YM so not much damage

 

[dc2000]

right now I am short term bearish with the 118 monthly fig I calced yesterday If I apply the FTSE calc to the DOW that comes out at 12433 for today

 

[dc2000]

FTSE needs to print a 6134 price today

 

[Devilicus]

Im trying a long here at 12700 (cash) - 50 pip stop

Closing half here at 12740 for 40 pips profit. Letting the other half run with a stop at B/E

Closing the other half here at 12756 for 56 pips profit.

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

This has got to be one of the worst piece of news for the markets and I wonder if anybody realises the implications.

U.S. November Trade Deficit Widens More Than Forecast (Update2)

What effectively this means is that despite the collosal dollar drop BoP is still widening. Reduced interest rates will only add to inflation and lower dollar. If lower dollar does not translate to higher exports but higher oil costs than where does the impetus for productivity and growth come from.

This is despite a strong global economy with rising purchasing power in India and China.

I think the gravity of the situation is likely to be devastating to good many.

Very bad news indeed. Sell the lot DOW, sell the dollar and buy gold. :whistling

 

[chilltrader]

Hi guys,

This has got to be one of the worst piece of news for the markets and I wonder if anybody realises the implications.

U.S. November Trade Deficit Widens More Than Forecast (Update2)

What effectively this means is that despite the collosal dollar drop BoP is still widening. Reduced interest rates will only add to inflation and lower dollar. If lower dollar does not translate to higher exports but higher oil costs than where does the impetus for productivity and growth come from.

This is despite a strong global economy with rising purchasing power in India and China.

I think the gravity of the situation is likely to be devastating to good many.

Very bad news indeed. Sell the lot DOW, sell the dollar and buy gold. :whistling

buying gold - yes!

 

[chilltrader]

Where can Volume data be had from {for the DOW}?

For the moment looking from something free/V.cheap

Thank You

 

[Hook Shot]

we got there in the end.....

Markets are very exciting .... I know some won't like me saying that but hey...

At 735 now we are 100 ish from thurs lows and 230ish from new swing lows...
the trend is down so those centuries look attractive.... However, we are 200ish from Thurs highs which I slapped since it was a big run up in 2d but more importantly ~25% of the move off the ath ...... didn't expect to get this low so quickly but I took it :clapposs prematurely who knows ?)

So wtf am I saying ....... the market must take out 930 to continue the advance... and from here if that happens that's luvly..... My "fear" is we see 632.........500 even since counter trends have not been sticking and thurs was only one day up.... and now look what's happened .... 200pt peel off...

I'm not really fearful it's just having taken profits on my short off 930 zone...... I'm sort of in no man's land..... may have to morph into a day trader temporarily to get back on side.............:cheesy:

Waited most of the day and sp futs gave me my IN with a pop over 1423 which failed....... then we saw my 632 ..... :smart: ? Theory says next stop 500 dow by monday....... but poss today as per earlier post..... 2.5 hrs left so enough time 4 it :cheesy:............

Sure theory could fail again.....but it's easy/low risk to buy (~day lows) so not a problem

 

[dc2000]

good call Hook
Im still on the Dow looking for 433 using the calc on spx gives 1376.2

 

[Crap Buddist]

Where can Volume data be had from {for the DOW}?

For the moment looking from something free/V.cheap

Thank You

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