Dow 2008

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clear downtrendline visible now on the 5 chart for today

overall I'm actually still quite bullish... this last three days has been very slow on selling

the plan was to see a retracement from 600 back to 400'ish, but apparently were going lower
let's see how price picks up on Monday then!
 
would be tempted for a long right here at 1322.6 with a tight stop of 2 points or so but as i said. im done for the week
 
Guess the close? 12212


I've got absolutely no good feeling of this market this week, so this will be a pure gamble:
12284

My dad's gone for 12370 for the close! that's what makes a market i guess....:)

20 minutes left. My dad still thinks he's got a shot at winning! It's sad when a man''s lost his mind, but its tragic when he's convinced himself that he's sane :(
 
........and for those who don't follow slow stochs(daily) we are now over 80 on both dow and spx aND IF HISTORY is any guide we can get ready for the move down....... not giving a timing on this one but soonish ....

Would love new swing high first.......... but failed new high will do ..... i.e in IDEAL World want a rally to as close to 12600 as we can get (or better) then ..... :D

EDIT:last 5 or so times slow stochastics topping well over 80 often brings in 500+ selloffs.......Peraps someone can show with StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Stock Charts or sthg.....? I'm no good at graphics.

Well we got the signal to press the ejector seat button today. Oi! I here you cry but the market topped on monday and now we get the signal ........! Well Old Stochs is SLOW STOCHS ...but I made my own refinement by looking for "topping/flattening" of the old fella above 80 rather than waiting for the signal of a break below.....

I gave guidance of potential 500+ sell off using the sample of the last few times the slow stochs topped over 80......... and now we're down 400+ [maybe I should have been more conservative :LOL:] We also got the test of 600ish I was looking for .... before going down. Incidentally, I thought FW's call about 12600 rez was a good call but it looks like a Monsta call now :cool:

In real life ...I made some of those 400 rather than cashing in cos of a fire in one of my other positions which I'd become a bit sloppy about.......... discipline discipline discipline ...write 300 tmes... I also took on a Lehman trade which demanded more attention than I could really afford but that turned out okay.

Perhaps moral is I'm taking on more positions than my little brain/risk management systems can really cope with.... :LOL:

Footnote: Slow stochs may not have the blistering pace of a Brett Lee but then a SLOW bowler holds the world record for the most test wickets.......
 
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We also got the test of 600ish I was looking for .... before going down. Incidentally, I thought FW's call about 12600 rez was a good call but it looks like a Monsta call now :cool:

Yeah, I'd clap myself on the shoulder if instead of just exiting my longs there, I'd had taken a short!
Serious opportunity lost there :(

Oh and just noticed something... the climb from down below on the 17th started at 11773. The highs on the 24th were 12620. A 50% retracement of that moves brings us to 12197. Today's low was 12191 :cool:

Now I'm not that good with numbers when it comes to trading but HookShot will explain what that means ;)
 
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Very prescient post Hook Shot. The ES 50% level is at 1307 area if you take the low at 1253 and high at 1361.50....Don't if YM made the 50% retracement....today.
 
Hi Everyone,

The DOW is looking very weak and the bigger H&S move looks like being clearly in progress.

Subsequent failures to break above 12800 and a breach below 12000s again with the summer period coming up is going to be a decisive move down imo.
I can’t see 11700s holding this time and I’d guess we’d be saying hello to 11500s very soon.

Here are my three charts I’m not sure if these candlesticks are inverted hammers or doji’s but the pair of them look pretty damn bearish to me.

On the weekly chart the lower high is clearly visible. I think we are heading down again. :whistling
 

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Guess the close for tomorrow? Im going with 12320

Longer term I think we're going down too.
 
Nice work with the numbers FW that retracement is certainly worth considering especially since
~12, 200 has been interesting in the past ... As for missing out on the short of the week... :LOL: what can I tell you that you don't already know.......? :)

Thanks Pele..........
I'd like to see the 50% pbk on ES too perhaps 1307-1309 .... the regular US sesh probably did not see 1253 (unlike globex) if that matters.... sometimes it does sometimes not...
 
ehm... given this is the dow thread, the most logical thing for me is to post a dow trade :)
long 12175 futures

any targets you guys?


lol. My bad.

Will be closing half if we can get back to Fridays close. Will then be looking for around 12300 dow wise.

Stop on this trade is now 3 points below my entry.
 
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