Dow 2008

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Or stupid !

Understanding phase of market is paramount....when price moves occur that are outside of normal up / down normalised ranges .....you gotta listen...and when these same moves occur ahead of normalised price and time constaints....then you have to be a lunatic to play the opposite direction.....I can't make it any clearer.

7,400 ....it doesn't seem so far away after today does it .

Just be careful out there people.....it's hellish.

Sure
brave if you buy and it bounces.
stupid if you buy and it keeps falling.
I am not telling anyone to buy, I might not buy myself, I have been telling anyone who wants to listen not to buy for the last couple of weeks because of the TED spread and a repeat of the 1987 falls. Those people who have been short and can afford to lose some of their profit can afford to think about buying.

Levels to look for are 8285, 8260, 8140, 7930
 
Sure
brave if you buy and it bounces.
stupid if you buy and it keeps falling.
I am not telling anyone to buy, I might not buy myself, I have been telling anyone who wants to listen not to buy for the last couple of weeks because of the TED spread and a repeat of the 1987 falls. Those people who have been short and can afford to lose some of their profit can afford to think about buying.

Just to clarify...I'm making general points and this is for education purposes only :)

So here's some more

No evidence at all that a bottom is forming

No price / time event that signals a reversal

Confidence returning will show up in the charts over time... and as such speculative evidence based longs ought to be very small stake and shortish in duration.

Playing One side of the market is certainly the safest way to trade ....and that side ought to be obvious....even if wrong on a short...then damage will be limited as opposed to being wrong on a long.

I could go on and on .....
 
Gordon Bennet :whistling :clap::clap:

Things can only get much worse lalalalllllaaaaaa lalalaaa LA LA LA ... :lol

Nice work if you were short guys...

Interesting day tomorrow eh?

Looks like mi dinner saved mi pips... :D How cool is that? :cool:

Nobody mention Barclays... :eek: :p
 
Post 3820 3822
Chart for clarification

This is where the rot started
The single event where price and time went out of normalised price action.

LHS v RHS....bottom top / top bottom candle counting...crude but effective.
 

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After yesterday, i thought today could go the same way for the dow. It doesnt really inspire confidence for tomorrow.
 
S&P500 heading to 800 level

In 30 July I had written an article in my website call "Where is S&P 500 Index heading to?".

At that time S&P500 was trading at 1263.20, currently S&P500 trades at 996. This means S&P500 has fallen 21% since I wrote this article for Part 1, just imagine how much money you have saved (in not investing) by believing in my article.

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and four other central banks lowered interest rates in a coordinated emergency effort to ease the economic effects of the financial crisis.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank each cut their benchmark rates by half a percentage point. The Bank of Japan, which didn't participate in the move, said it supported the action. Switzerland also took part. China's central bank lowered its key one-year lending rate by 0.27 percentage point.

I predict that Fed Rate will eventually fall to 1%. If Fed Rate is indeed a good indicator of S&P500, (according to my model) then we will see the index going towards 800 level over the next few months.

To view my website, click on my name and go to my homepage.
 
Go get your BLING

PRECIOUS-Gold rallies as investors seek safety
LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices rallied to two-month highs on Friday as investors piled in, seeking safety from the carnage on equity markets, traders said.

'The macro environment has become positive for gold once again, in light of our expectations for the dollar to weaken, mark down in growth, further Fed rate cut and tight credit conditions,' Barclays Capital said in a note.

'Investors in search of a safer haven have increased holdings in the largest physically backed gold ETF which now stands at a record 764 tonnes.'

Equity prices around the world have collapsed as investors and traders panicked, believing that government and central bank efforts to shore up banks will not be enough to prevent economic and financial meltdown.
 
sorry pat i think you are talking to yourself 1 all the guys who posted trades a month ago with big smilies have gone gone gone ! anyway you were right about down. the 2002/2003 low was 800 on the s&p. watch for major g7 announcement over weekend because credit markets are still tight and until that changes we go down.

Um yup - think you are right !
They say trading is a lonely game ?
I had it right as you say but guess what, I moved my stop to b/e and got caught aaah !

This market is really brilliant for intra day traders.
Pity the contra swing traders - mostly broke by now I expect

How's the hangover AT ?
Tried "hair of the dog" cure ?

Pencil in 18th Nov because that is when OPEC meet next. They will put the squeeze on again as usual imho - where do those oil rich sheiks hide all their gains ? And why did Big G put oil under their patch of sand ?
 
Um yup - think you are right !
They say trading is a lonely game ?
I had it right as you say but guess what, I moved my stop to b/e and got caught aaah !

This market is really brilliant for intra day traders.
Pity the contra swing traders - mostly broke by now I expect

How's the hangover AT ?
Tried "hair of the dog" cure ?

Pencil in 18th Nov because that is when OPEC meet next. They will put the squeeze on again as usual imho - where do those oil rich sheiks hide all their gains ? And why did Big G put oil under their patch of sand ?


I'm at work now but not too bad. Late 10 o'clock start saw me good. I was relieved not to be trading last night though. Strangely enough I thought it was all very funny last night despite losing some pips.

I'm learning a lot in these market conditions. By that meaning I've lost the gains I made earlier on. :cheesy: Easy come easy go. :whistling

I'm now looking for consolidation and viewing the market for long term buy in value shares. I think the lows may come in next year.

Anyway my objective is to stay in rather than get blown away.

Good trading y'all now... (y)
 
would it be suicide to long DOW at market close and hold it for at least 1 week?
Coudl somebody please advice?
Thx.
 
i agree with kanobi you cant ask a question like that ! anyway for what its worth i am just trading in/ out today on 5 min chart on the dow but also just gut feel. what i have done tho for longer term is but 5 ftse at 3910 to replace a £20000 fund i sold when ftse was 5300. if we close close to up today that was a capitulation day (whether it was THE capitulation day we will find out in due course but if we close near the highs it a good technical sign.) all sorts of rumours about G7meeting over w/e.
 
would it be suicide to long DOW at market close and hold it for at least 1 week?
Coudl somebody please advice?
Thx.

If you could hold it for a year then I think you are in with a good chance

・麿 クーロン 把持 イット 対して アト 年度 扨 で・麿 are ・共に アト 良い 便
 
so much for long term hold i just sold ftse pos at 3978. had a good day and market doesnt quite feel finished on the down side yet. who knows what the weekend will bring.
 
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