Dow 2008

[Splitlink]

Hi FW.

Thanks for the rec. Let's clarify things while they are still clarifiable!

I don't trade the Dow. The Iran post attracted my attention.

I have been shorting the Footsie and SP500 most days this month, but not since May 19.

Regards, Split

 

[trader_dante]

Well, March lows was bang on the money

I love it when a plan comes together lol

 

[Splitlink]

Well, March lows was bang on the money

I love it when a plan comes together lol

Glad we both made money, TD. It is still down, though. I would say that at time of post, this a chance to sell into strength.

 

[Splitlink]

OK, TD, I've had enough! I'm closing for the day. Good trading with what you do for the rest of the day.

Split

 

[dans_ya_man]

Been doing great this week shorting from the 900 zone, been pretty dam reliable all week so far

 

[Atilla]

Been doing great this week shorting from the 900 zone, been pretty dam reliable all week so far

Good stuff Dans, 11500 now in sight and target reached.

I can't help feeling either end of tonight or tomorrow 11500 will be reached tested and we may get a bounce? At least this was my sentiment last week.

There is the possibility it will slice through it and land on 11000 but that does sound so far fetched...

 

[mrpunter]

Look at that bitch go down!
Massive respect to Atilla for his call earlier in the week...
Sorry to say I've got a full time job and small testicles so haven't enjoyed any of the fun
This economy is so fecked up I feel like crying sometimes...
Hope all the lying bankers and politicians lose their pensions and all you shorters become very rich!

 

[ian]

I leave you all with a final thought Grey1 posted on May 6 in his private board.

He has excluded me from there (not that it matters because I'm leaving lol) But it's remarkable how frustration can cause people to do all sort of things. For example, his long from April 17 is turning out into a loss... what a shame. Nonetheless, I hope you all frame his words, because they will soon become immortal:

____________________________________________________________________________

"heheh they are dreaming .. THIS MARKET WILL NEVER EVER GO TO MARCH LOW .Oil hits 120$ and market rallies , is this a weak market ?

grey1"​

_____________________________________________________________________________

Meanwhile Oil hit $135 and as for the DOW... I'll let that one speak for itself.
Enjoy the ride

Hey FW, you any relation to this guy?
Time-Traveler Busted For Insider Trading

 

[dans_ya_man]

Good stuff Dans, 11500 now in sight and target reached.

I can't help feeling either end of tonight or tomorrow 11500 will be reached tested and we may get a bounce? At least this was my sentiment last week.

There is the possibility it will slice through it and land on 11000 but that does sound so far fetched...

Great call Atilla, :clap:

11500 now hit, lets see if we get a bounce, Ive just put on a cheeky long with a tight s/l

 

[Atilla]

Great call Atilla, :clap:

11500 now hit, lets see if we get a bounce, Ive just put on a cheeky long with a tight s/l

Hi Dan,

Before leaving work I put a 30pip SL at 11600 with a limit at 11530 and delighted to see target hit. I think I'll leave it at that now and watch the footy.

I'll probably wait for the bounce to the big H&S neckline before shorting again. There is the possibility it will fall further but I think it's very unlikely given level of falls.

Good luck with your long. I think it will bounce but may test 11480s to blow out the faint hearteds first.

 

[Vaco]

i caught have the move south from 900 to 650 but now the long looks promising at 450.

 

[dans_ya_man]

Cant believe we got so close to the Jan low today, thought that would be left for tomorrow.

Will be very interesting to see if it holds out, going by todays action it doesn`t look very likely.

I expect a bounce up early trading before the next dip down testing the 11430/400 area

 

[Atilla]

Cant believe we got so close to the Jan low today, thought that would be left for tomorrow.

Will be very interesting to see if it holds out, going by todays action it doesn`t look very likely.

I expect a bounce up early trading before the next dip down testing the 11430/400 area

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression

 

[firewalker99]

Hey FW, you any relation to this guy?
Time-Traveler Busted For Insider Trading

No ian I just trade on what I see. Fun read though.

In all seriousness, everything in the chart (and I mean every possible technical element) was screaming at you last month this was going lower. Only those stupid enough not to listen to the market, but instead to their own opinion (or that of the quote "CNBC-technicians" ) were long the stocks and short oil.

Btw, great job Atilla! I always knew you'd turn out to become a much better trader after you left fundamentals behind you

 

[mrpunter]

fw, hope you're well!
Everything may be in the chart, but don't you think it's all driven by fundamentals?
Following is reproduced from FT Alphaville.......

Edwards: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”

We had promised more on the latest missive from Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards - so here it is.

This is evidence, we think, that only Edwards can out-Edwards when it comes to alarmist market strategy report. It’s just marvellous.

First, some context:

The entrenched bias towards bullishness infects virtually all parts of our business and means investing on the basis of forecasts is a waste of time…

Yet there is no big conspiracy about this. It is simply that an equity/economic bear standing out from the crowd runs the risk of being very wrong (so too obviously do the bulls, but funnily enough no-one seems to mind that). Being bearish and being wrong attracts the derision of the salesforce (though not necessarily the clients) which pressurises management to remove the offender. And with so many in this industry living the high spending dream and with huge mortgages yoked around bended necks, it is all too easy to produce forecasts that say nothing in order not to rock the HMS Gravy-train.

Edwards, and his colleague James Montier, however, are determined to describe what they see - even if it makes them look stupid.

The strategy team have long been convinced that once Alan Greenspan’s various bubbles had finally worked their way through the system, the global economy would slide into recession.

The US is leading the way, diving into deep recession as a collapse in consumer confidence induces The Great Unwind. This asset-backed economic Ponzi scheme will finally crash to earth as debt revulsion leaves interest rates impotent.

The UK, Euro and Japan will follow the US down, Edwards says.

And he gives us one hard forecast number that he says we can hold him to:

At its worst, I expect non-farm payrolls to be contracting at a monthly rate of 500,000.

So the SocGen man is talking about a recession at least as deep as the early 1980s, albeit not quite as bad as 1974.

What does that mean?

Oil - $60
CPI - zero in the US, UK and Eurozone
US 10yr bonds - yield bottoms out below 2 per cent

As for equities:

A deep recession will result in a profits slump. Coupled with an Ice Age P/E contraction, we see global equity markets falling some 70% from their Oct 07 peak. I expect the S&P to bottom around 500 (verses the 1,575 peak) and FTSE around 3,000 (imagine where consumer confidence will be if equity prices do collapse).

 

[User]

A nice buy Zone would be 12750. Ideally we need to try and tackle 12900 on the cash otherwise 12750's is where we'll be heading.....and if 12600's don't hold then it seems like we could be heading much lower....1000 points lower....

It turned out well in the end!!!

Now we've got the 1000 points lower I would like to see some bottoming action before a regain of 12000 occurs.

 

[Pat494]

The time for bottom feeding is coming imho
I mean HBOS at 278 must be a good buy. As soon as this current down move is over it should only take approx 3 years to be back up at 5x present price.
If UK Govt hadn't been half asleep for the last 2 decades we would be up and running with electric cars etc. years ago ! Stuff oil

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

Last week was one of those exceptional nice weeks. I don't know how to surf the waves but if I did I suppose catching a big wave and riding it would be near enough to the elation. It went well beyond my expectations.

Looking at my weekly and daily charts the bigger H&S I think has started to play out but I haven't seen the pull back to the neckline and I'm still not 100% sure for my personal sanity as to where we are. The speed of the breakdown is amazing. I reckon 10,000 is the ultimate target but that's towards next year on my charts. Be well shocked if we hit that by the end of the year .

I can't help but thinking we should have support kicking in now. If not at 11300's then at least around 11200s. Pivot S2=11187 and so I reckon we might test these lows before bouncing back up.

I think in the next week or two the market is going to move sideways. We are on a support line and MACD, RSI and Stochastics all look well extended too.

I'd like it to may an attempt to 11,800s to confirm the neck line before tanking again.

In summary I feel rudderless this week and simply guessing some kind of lateral followed by an upward move.

I'll be looking for longs but not sure if I'll take em.

Good trading everyone.

 

[breadman]

is their any chance we have a big rally to somewhere between 13100 amd 13600 over the next 6 to 9 months, before we head to 10000.

 

[free4440273]

Looks possible - next year I would reason; not in 2008 (election year).