Dow 2008

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A reasonable bounce occurred exactly where one should be looking for it.

Nothing unpredictable so far...
 

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If you were looking for an entry 045 before and 103 after 7:16pm would be reasonable
 
you could also calc using the FTSE afterhours as figs for Monday are 851 964 and 805
 
bottomleyp said:
Any one out their, think the DOw must be ready for a short rebound.
Been buying long at 12223, 12204 abd 12165 small positions.
Expiry Dow futures tomorrow, usually ramps up before expiry.
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Hope you got out in time on those longs from yesterday.

Looking for an upday on Monday, possibly back to 12300 cash. Not that I would do anything with that. Obviously. I only trade what I see. But since it's Friday night I felt like throwing in the occasional thought 🙂
 
DOW Longs

Thanks FW, I did close my longs late Thursday evening with a small profit,
did consider letting it run overnight, but as the trend is down, I felt uncomfortable. My trading philosophy lately is trade what you see (one of your many words of wisdom).
Good weekend.
 
firewalker99 said:
Looking for an upday on Monday, possibly back to 12300 cash. Not that I would do anything with that. Obviously. I only trade what I see. But since it's Friday night I felt like throwing in the occasional thought 🙂
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Absolutely NO CHANCE whatsoever of a rise on Monday as the markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jnr's Day.
 
Good evening everyone,

I hope you have all had a better weekend than I have. After an Ikea expedition on Saturday and the London Boat Show on Sunday with two children on tow, I am so looking forward to going into work on Monday morning, it's surreal... 😀.

Here are two charts this weekend which summarises my opinions on the current situation.

The trend line in black should clearly act as support and has been in place since 2003 as shown by the first chart.

However, the current down turn and reversal from the bigger H&S formation is yet to play out to full imo. Pivot points 11964 and 11849 also have not been hit. On my second chart this full H&S play should fall to 11500 regions before coming to it's text book conclusion.

Basically, until price turns upwards and cuts my MAs starting with DEMA21 currently arround 12461 I'm still very bearish on the trend down. I would say 60/40 downward bias with a target of 11500s.

Also, the last move since 13556 was rejected just before Xmas, we have a 1 - 2 - 3 move and the next 4th wave is likely to be high before the final 5th wave down. On my charts this may be 12460 (4th) and 11500 (5th). This 4th wave up 12460 is also the same level as my DEMA21 moving average.

In summary, imo we are likely to have a bounce off the long term support line to 12460s but it's likely to be a weak one and then the continuation down to 11500 should play out.

Good trading everyone...
 

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Atilla said:
In summary, imo we are likely to have a bounce off the long term support line to 12460s but it's likely to be a weak one and then the continuation down to 11500 should play out.

Good trading everyone...
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To be honest, can't see how that trendline will provide much support... but in short, I'm with you on the bearish stand. Did you ever think I'd say that 😛
 
catracho said:
For me personally..seems a BIT obvious to have a sustainable bounce here..12450 DOW, 1370 SPX, but who knows...:whistling! Still core short..but reduced on last downwave..looking for a rally to put out more OR... (preferred scenario) one more push down - a little panic thrown in would be good 😈 - then a dip into the long side may be warranted...


Longer term charts are turning down.....
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Well seems we got the panic move...It's easy to be bearish on days like this..but this kind of move is signalling we are near to a short term end to the downmove (shorts may take profits !).....then watch and wait for the - inevitable - long opportunity...
 
not that i'm complaining as i'm short but can anyone explain why the dow cash has dropped 300 pts in pre opening on a short trading day?
 

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catracho said:
Well seems we got the panic move...It's easy to be bearish on days like this..but this kind of move is signalling we are near to a short term end to the downmove (shorts may take profits !).....then watch and wait for the - inevitable - long opportunity...
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Good stuff catracho.
Everything still on schedule for a long tomorrow for me.
 
jm99 said:
no news event if thats why you mean. heavy selling in asia
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If theres no news then possibly the move is due to it been a light trading day with most of the big boys having a long weekend, not many buyers in there to keep the price up, That kinda move is gonna knock out a lot of stops for anyone that was long.
 
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