Dow 2006

75 down ....75 up ....duration 36 mins

i've come to the conclusion trading the Dow is tosh .....and this isn't a sudden realisation
 
leovirgo said:
Are you still bullish Jerry? Do you still think it can break out to the upside. Bernanke may do the tricks.
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One sentence does it. Boom market jumps 60 points in a couple of seconds.

I've said this many times before, but, it is worth repeating, I never trade the markets when the Fed Chief speaks. Unless you are a gambler, you may as well toss a coin. Many people will boast how many points that they have taken and pretend it is skill, but you are really gambling on what you think Bernanke may say.
 
macbonzo said:
One sentence does it. Boom market jumps 60 points in a couple of seconds.

I've said this many times before, but, it is worth repeating, I never trade the markets when the Fed Chief speaks. Unless you are a gambler, you may as well toss a coin. Many people will boast how many points that they have taken and pretend it is skill, but you are really gambling on what you think Bernanke may say.
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I disagree, but your perfectly entitled to your opinion. From my perspective its all about understanding how the big boys operate, climb into their minds, understand how they think and what they have in store for us. I personally dont trade them everytime, but afterall, I have said plenty about whats going on in the world with this thread. The rest is history.
 
Awesome volatility. :)

YM 10 sec so far ...

Reasonably safe (in the context anyway, lol) entry after the stop run at c15:46 ... (a high vol. hammer then bozu on the 1 min if more confirmation required). Given the volatility up till then it looked like it was either going to fly or immediately stop out for a few ticks' loss.
 

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Volatility is, as you say, awesome. I have to say, I'm short the emini S&P at 1318.5 with a stop at 1323.5. I really think, we have seen quite an overreaction to the fact that there may only be another .25bp hike. The oils are having a hard time at the moment.

It is also clear that there has been a rotational shift of stock into the bigger caps. Dow is hitting highs but S&P and Nas are not.
 
being short the dow is a little painful at the moment. For me a higher close tonight will mean I cut 1/2 out. I just do not like the look of this trudge higher. Although I am still holding out for a violent reaction later towards 10300 again. Went long nat gas as well , at these levels it is a steal.
 
lemput said:
being short the dow is a little painful at the moment. For me a higher close tonight will mean I cut 1/2 out. I just do not like the look of this trudge higher. Although I am still holding out for a violent reaction later towards 10300 again. Went long nat gas as well , at these levels it is a steal.
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I would short around 11420. Thats where I think it will exhaust but closing at the highs may attract the public and push it even higher.
 
NDX much more volatile than the DOW or SPX with a rise of 1.2% today versus 0.33% and 0.5% respectively (as at 18.00). There were 70% advances/30% declines on the NDX too.
Projected Q1 GDP and April Consumer Sentiment should drive the markets tomorrow !
 
Charlie sez "It's not clear how the major cyborgs figured into the sickening opening (Dow) drop, in combination with the premarket futures, which collapsed through the morning. The half hour drop beginning at about 1015 definitely looks like their tracks. The upmoves until noon have the definite look of the PPT, and that makes sense if they were trying to boost Ben, and avoid the typical market reaction to a Fed Meister."

Oil under $71 tonight - down by nearly 4 1/2 bucks (6%) since Monday. GDP figures tomorrow should be outstanding but will they be viewed as a plus or minus sign by the market ?
 
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(-4.92%) Missing analysts' expectations by a penny, Microsoft reported Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.32 per share, excluding $0.03 legal charge. Revenues rose 13.3% year/year to $10.9 bln, which was also shy of expectations (consensus $11.04 bln). Looking ahead, MSFT issued downside EPS guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.30 (consensus $0.34) on revenues of $11.5-11.7 bln (consensus $11.67 bln). Co also issued downside EPS guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $1.36-1.41 (consensus $1.53) on revenues of $49.5-50.5 bln (consensus $49.52 bln). Microsoft CFO said, "We are now accelerating our investments in the business to drive future growth, which is reflected in our financial guidance. We believe next fiscal year will deliver even stronger double-digit revenue growth than this year."
 
leovirgo said:
Are you still bullish Jerry? Do you still think it can break out to the upside. Bernanke may do the tricks.
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So sorry never got this post in e-mail

I answered all this on my thread please check it out..

The answer is i am still bullish and think we are headed to new 52 week highs all around the board.

The FED Chairman said it was so, so let it be done................ :cheesy:
 
Racer said:
(-4.92%) Missing analysts' expectations by a penny, Microsoft reported Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.32 per share, excluding $0.03 legal charge. Revenues rose 13.3% year/year to $10.9 bln, which was also shy of expectations (consensus $11.04 bln). Looking ahead, MSFT issued downside EPS guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.30 (consensus $0.34) on revenues of $11.5-11.7 bln (consensus $11.67 bln). Co also issued downside EPS guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $1.36-1.41 (consensus $1.53) on revenues of $49.5-50.5 bln (consensus $49.52 bln). Microsoft CFO said, "We are now accelerating our investments in the business to drive future growth, which is reflected in our financial guidance. We believe next fiscal year will deliver even stronger double-digit revenue growth than this year."
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Hi Racer

MSFT INTC CSCO EBAY are all non events now they are the leaders of the past not the future.

So this report is just another nail in MSFT's coffin if you ask me. The street will ignore it.
 
Racer out of interest do you read economic / earnings reports etc. merely for their intellectual stimulation and unintentional humour (esp. regarding data massaging, obtuse market reaction, pundits trying to fit the report to the gyrations etc.) or do you still base some of your trading decisions on them too? I only ask as I thought you were a pure price action L.M. Bear these days. :) The day I stopped paying attention to any of it (except the times of release and the pre-reaction, as it were) was the day my ... brain died :) ... but my trading improved too. Still, I have the attention of a fruit fly so funnymentals are obviously less of a concern.
 
That was a coy response. Edit: and now a deleted one. :D Fear not, your bearishness was never in doubt. I just wondered if, well, you might initiate or change a position based on a report as opposed to the price action itself.

Chuck Norris doesn't sleep ... he waits, too. Waiting is a good policy I feel. We will all be rewarded. I still think 11450 - 11500 for a sell in May three month position trade, but wouldn't have the guts to carry it off, especially if Jerry-O is taking the other side. :) So we'd best add another 100 to that to stop me out first I guess.
 
Iranian Oil Bourse To Open Next Week

Be interesting to see how this impacts the $US once the Iranians start selling oil in Euros !

Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said on Wednesday that the establishment of Oil Stock Exchange is in its final stage and the bourse will be launched in Iran in the next week. He told reporters, upon arrival from Qatar where he attended the 10th General Assembly of International Energy Agency and consultations with OPEC member states, that registration of the Oil Stock Exchange is underway and the entity will operate after being approved by by Council of Stock Exchange.

He rejected a statement attributed to him saying that Oil Stock Exchange will bring to the ground the US economy and said, "I don't know who has speculated that I've not talked about US economy." Asked about conference on energy in Doha, he said that more than 60 countries and 30 oil companies and consultants took part in the conference. Vaziri Hamaneh said that serious discussions were held including security of supply and demand, security of investment in energy and environment issues.

"The best method for security of demand in the oil sector is that consumers should be given opportunity to enter into partnership with the suppliers in investment in oil industry." He said that the conference called for diversifying energy resources and cooperation of the developed states with the countries possessing oil and gas resources.

Asked about the oil price rise, Vaziri-Hamaneh said that oil price is being influenced by political situation, whereas it should be freed from political impacts and economic and technical fundamentals should determine the oil prices. "As long as political impacts dominate the oil market, price hike will continue," he concluded.
 
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