Dow 2006

[Matt321]

You'll find a realtime orders book for the mini-dow here,http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1139,00.html great for timing your entries/exits for the Dow

 

[Pat494]

You'll find a realtime orders book for the mini-dow here,http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1139,00.html great for timing your entries/exits for the Dow

There is what looks like a good article there about pivot trading. I do EOD normally so not for me.

 

[macbonzo]

If this market range gets any tighter today, trading will grind to a halt. Seems there is nothing for the market to get its teeth into.

 

[solentsurfer]

If this market range gets any tighter today, trading will grind to a halt. Seems there is nothing for the market to get its teeth into.

Hit a bit of a brick wall at 11300, wonder if it's going to dump again

 

[macbonzo]

It certainly occurs to me that it could. I thought that the MSFT news would bring down the tech sector, but the SOX seems to have recovered. I'm out of the market at the moment, but I'm more inclined to be long than short. It's always dicey when you have low volume and no discerning market moving events.

 

[mark twain uk]

so we have a weak rally on low volume hitting resistance and failing, that sounds bearish to me

 

[mark twain uk]

on the other hand, MSFT announces delays of their OS and the market discards this piece of news and rallies, this smacks of bullish behaviour

 

[macbonzo]

In fact, if you look at the last hour's trading the Dow is trading in a 5 point range. Anything could happen with a little volume.

 

[mark twain uk]

I looked at the chart again and got to the same conclusion, if I wasn't already short I would go short now, there appears to be a good risk/reward ratio.

On the other hand, guessing tops is a mugs game and I really should be flat, waiting for confirmation. The market could go up a few more hundred points before finally topping and all my stop losses will be hit.

 

[mark twain uk]

In fact, if you look at the last hour's trading the Dow is trading in a 5 point range. Anything could happen with a little volume.

the classic one would be a fake move, just enough to trigger breakout orders, followed by a sharp reversal.

 

[macbonzo]

on the other hand, MSFT announces delays of their OS and the market discards this piece of news and rallies, this smacks of bullish behaviour

Yes who knows? But the market did rally 412 points (10922 - 11334) in under 2 weeks. That is bullish. To pull back even 150 points is nothing. From the bears point of year, the best chance of the market falling back is some poor pre announcement results for Q1 or a hike in crude to about $68

 

[macbonzo]

We have the Feb Home Sales tomorrow. At the moment I think I'll go to the cinema, otherwise, I'll stupidly trade when I know I shouldn't.

 

[kriesau]

It's testing 11300 for the 4th time today. Tech stocks still the Achillies heel.
IF it cannot breach this and subsequently punch straight through the 11325 - 50 range then it should go down this afternoon.

 

[solentsurfer]

the classic one would be a fake move, just enough to trigger breakout orders, followed by a sharp reversal.

Looks like you are pretty close to the truth so far!

 

[mark twain uk]

Looks like you are pretty close to the truth so far!

but then they can use the same trick again, pretend that the fall is not going to happen, go back into the range, and then breakout for good.

I still think that the last hour will show a major move

 

[leovirgo]

Looks like a closing above 11300 for the first time since the recovery.

 

[macbonzo]

I've got to admit, that, yesterday's action was not as I had expected. With MSFT weak, the Nasdaq opened down 9 points and for a good while the S&P was down too. Despite this, and no discernable economic news, there was very little evidence of selling. Bearing in mind the selling we got on Tuesday afternoon, I would have expected to see some evidence of sellers.

As we near the end of Q1, it occurs to me that the major players might be comfortable with the new levels and are supporting the market at 11200 - 30 level.

From a sheer momentum point of view, the strategy would seem to be to buy the dips, but one would have thought, that, after a 412 point move we might consolidate back to, at least, the 11050 level.

 

[kriesau]

Cash Futures just slightly under last nights close at 14.15.
Oil back over $62 today.
Adobie profit declines by 44% over Q1 last year, which could impact tech stocks.
Jobless claims fall in the US.
Could go either way today !

 

[mark twain uk]

the 1312 spx june level has been attacked and defended four times, it looks like it's giving way

edited: it did, not let's see it stay under that level

 

[macbonzo]

the 1312 spx june level has been attacked and defended four times, it looks like it's giving way

edited: it did, not let's see it stay under that level

Yes, I covered a SPX short at exactly that level for a $50 profit at 15.13. Rather wishing I hadn't.

I'm really coming round to the idea that this market is going higher. We do have $TNX at 4.72 and NYMEX at $62.80 which will hamper the market a bit, but the SOX is up 0.77% and $OSX is well up too.

I could see this market coming right back in the afternoon. At the very least, it is looking like 2 steps forward 1 step back.