Dow 2006

[Racer]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 1.5% in December to $65.7 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $64.6 billion. The trade gap widened even though exports rose slightly faster than imports in December. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $16.3 billion in December compared with $14.2 billion in the same month last year. For all of 2005, the U.S. recorded a record trade deficit of $725.8 billion, or 5.8% of GDP. This compares with a deficit of $617.6 billion, or 5.3% of GDP in 2004. The annual trade gap with China widened to a record $201.6 billion in 2005. End of Story

 

[kriesau]

Dow back up 40pts over the last hour - looks like there might be some PPT action going on !

 

[aspex]

Does their PPT mainly affect the DOW?
I now focus on the NDX for reasons of higher volatility.
In the last 10 days the DOW has ranged only 2% while the NDX has moved over nearly 5%.
Great for swing trades.

 

[frugi]

I've acquired an exclusive SierraChart plugin called "Mummy Bear's Dream", which indicates the likely movement of the Dow over the next three weeks with a very high probability. The worrying thing is, I'm almost starting to believe it.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Hello, Frugi. Next week is crucial and this price level is also 'crooshal' man. If it is going to double top it will be next week or never. I'm concerned, because next week my signature could be the one i have now or.......

 

[RUDEBOY]

O.K. Folks! What do you do? The Doh likes it's double tops, but, at the moment it's at resistunts. The Nas looks ready and has showed signs of a small bounce next week, the S'n'P too. I'm going for the 'Pongy Bum' outlook.

You've just got to know which side you're batting for?

 

[twiggytwo]

Possible Range play

O.K. Folks! What do you do? The Doh likes it's double tops, but, at the moment it's at resistunts. The Nas looks ready and has showed signs of a small bounce next week, the S'n'P too. I'm going for the 'Pongy Bum' outlook.

You've just got to know which side you're batting for?

Hi Rudeboy what do you think about a Range within a Range
and trade the movements ?
Dow 10,670 to 10,950 280 points and within this Range a smaller Range of 140 points
10,720 to 10,860
Just my view
Regards

 

[starspacer]

I'd be careful about shorting the Dow at this moment - it just seems to want another tilt at 11k. My feeling is that it will cross 11k again at some point, pull in all the bullz and then break its Jan lows, probably in the May- Nov time.

The liquidity spigot is gushing right now, which makes shorting and holding anything problematic. My strategy is selective intra-day trades and adding to core energy holdings on corrections, particularly NatGas which tends to bottom around Feb/March. Will also look to add to gold once all the goldbullz have disappeared.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Yeh, it's good. Do what ever you want, matey.

 

[millsy500]

The daily chart looks familiar. Nice trend up then slim jim from nov till now. they usually breakout nicely to the upside at some point. who knows????

Millsy

 

[starspacer]

Oh, forgot to mention, Dow is DOOMED & so is the Dollar ..... just not yet

 

[starspacer]

Shiver me timbers me sprogs, I be promoted to Senior Member

 

[RUDEBOY]

'Ere, SP! 'Ave ya eva sailed round the south seas shortin' the Dow?

Ten straight shifts in the nest wiv me lap top.

Cost me an arm 'n' me wooden leg.

All hands on deck........bring out the main sail.......11k a'hoy!

 

[starspacer]

'Ere, SP! 'Ave ya eva sailed round the south seas shortin' the Dow?

Ten straight shifts in the nest wiv me lap top.

Cost me an arm 'n' me wooden leg.

All hands on deck........bring out the main sail.......11k a'hoy!

I don't know as I recall askin' ye for yer thoughts, ye scurvy bilge-drinkin' tar-merchant. Avast yer gob afore I keelhaul ye an' string yer bones from the crow's nest

But since ye ask, I be goin Twenty leagues past the Screeching Squid... ten left past Fiddlers Green... and a minute's voyage down the Great Carpeted Hallway... a large treasure chest and amazin' booty be on yer port side.

Arrr, Rudeboy matey, have your parrot call my parrot and we'll one day partake of noontime grub together

 

[Racer]

frugi, a dream.. yes .. only a dream arrggghh

(from a book witten in 1954 by J. Galbraith about the Great Crash...discussing future "exhilarant optimism and wild speculative frenzy" ..."Or the the speculative fever may strike land, oil , or even Boston")


but yes agree the Dow looks the stronger of the 3 indices, so as aspex says I would think the Nasdaq would be the one to watch for leadership

 

[frugi]

Hello Racer,

Yes the Naz Comp is interesting as it is the only one of the 3 that has broken out of a large wedge to the upside. Despite some persistent indecision around the top boundary we are still above it, but only just. Are we winding up on the daily, forming a descending triangle that will explode upwards, or are the lower highs a sign of weaknessm I wonder? If I was a position trader a long here with stop n reverse at 2230 might make sense.

I think we will test 11000 / 2300 / 1290 next week. Clear these and then 2350 / 11200 wouldn't be a surprise, though it pains me to say it.

Temporary turncoat bear.

 

[starspacer]

Hello Racer,

Yes the Naz Comp is interesting as it is the only one of the 3 that has broken out of a large wedge to the upside. Despite some persistent indecision around the top boundary we are still above it, but only just. If I was a position trader a long here with stop n reverse at 2230 might make sense, although a small position as the 2 lower highs on the daily are ominous.

I think we will test 11000 / 2300 / 1290 next week. Clear these and 2250 / 11200 wouldn't be a surprise, though it pains me to say it.

Temporary turncoat bear.

Most likely situation is a continuation of ST uptrend on Monday/Tuesday (Monday before Feb expiration day, Dow has been up 11 of last 12 years), before the almost inevitable plunge before Presidents' Day (S&P has been down 12 of last 14 years).

This consistency is hard to bet against. I think it may also explain Friday's reversal to the upside.

 

[Matt321]

Quite a difference between calls and puts for the Dow on Friday,see chart attached.Any comments welcome.To me this indicates a further rise,but looking for some confirmation.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

 

[twiggytwo]

Dow direction

Quite a difference between calls and puts for the Dow on Friday,see chart attached.Any comments welcome.To me this indicates a further rise,but looking for some confirmation.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Hi Matt, I have 45 points up on Monday to 10,964 then a slow fall off over the next few days
not advice just my view at present based on my indicator
Regards

 

[Racer]

Hello Racer,

I think we will test 11000 / 2300 / 1290 next week. Clear these and then 2350 / 11200 wouldn't be a surprise, though it pains me to say it.

Temporary turncoat bear.

Oh dear, another one joins the enemy!


BTW did you know the 1929 crash was preceded by a housing bubble, cut in interest rates to very low level and easily available money with excess margin trading and those in power saying that the economy is going well