Dow 2006

[rav700]

My current first loss of the week......it aint looking good...
I have bought an october contract.........
11681 and it aint looking good currently total -50.........
The dow has to come back down to 11650 for me to break even which is 70 points away..........

Have to be honest this will be my last dow trade........

I will roll back to my currency and ftse trading...

Best of luck everyone else........

Looking for a correction on the dow.... I am pretty sure I will break even before the end of october....heavy plenty of room for my stops......

Happy Trading ( Not for me though)

Rav

 

[dc2000]

My current first loss of the week......it aint looking good...
I have bought an october contract.........
11681 and it aint looking good currently total -50.........
The dow has to come back down to 11650 for me to break even which is 70 points away..........

are you still in Rav or did you jump off?

 

[Hook Shot]

I take it you bagged the slide DC - not far off the 65 pt move you expected!

HS

 

[laptop1]

We are close to the top, if we get a lower open, then screams higher to take the previous days or past weeks high, then you know the top is in. This is the signal I be looking for.

 

[dc2000]

I did hook shot only 50 points though time was running out the close should be interesting 693 and its an average day tomorrow 660 and we rock

 

[Hook Shot]

Reversals seem to be fooling us - remember the outside day reversal on Dow recently ... and here we are at new swing highs. I'm going back to basics and waiting for break of the previous days low at the min then a pullback which lasts longer than 4days or is longer than the previous one etc.etc

The only reversal I will really believe is the island top - gap to high then gap down the following day.

HS

 

[kriesau]

Was tempted to go short yesterday but held back since I think the markets could peak on Fridays quarter end date. We might still see a yearly Dow high at 11724 (close) or 11751 (intraday) over the next 48 hours. Will be looking for good short entry positions on the Dow, NDX & Dax on Friday and/or Monday.

In the meantime went long on December Gold at 604 earlier today.

 

[kriesau]

no pos and pays to wait for the pattern to play in full. anything below todays low would be a fairly bearish signal.....

Hi Joules - long time no see ! How are you doing !

Would like to be in Oz for the upcoming Ashes but can't make it this year.

Looking for signs that the market is turning bearish and expect to see it turndown over the next few trading sessions.

 

[Hook Shot]

Kriesau - great articles thanks for posting.

 

[kriesau]

Kriesau - great articles thanks for posting.

You're welcome - all grist to the mill and supplementary data to TA.

Are you still short on the Dow or have you closed out ?
We could see a rally to 11750 over the next two sessions but I think that we are close to the cusp of a downturn into October.

 

[rav700]

are you still in Rav or did you jump off?

Still in mate...
I have a feeling that it will visit 600 once more mate..........will just have to wait and see....

I will be opening another short at 22 if my balance permits me to..............
Well done mate
Good trading..

Best of luck
For tommorow

 

[chindl]

Of all the articles I've read these last few days, this one seemed v interesting, but Rav won't like it.

Enjoy.

Chris

_____________________________________________________________________


Of the three major measures of the market, the DOW has held the strongest throughout the Bear market. This is perhaps explained by a natural "flight to quality" in light of dizzying losses in the Nasdaq from early 2003, as well as a litany of equity market scandals over the last few years – note that the DOW is comprised of the 30 mightiest American stocks. It is therefore natural that the DOW is right back here attempting to move towards its ATH far ahead of its counterpart benchmarks: the S&P500 and Nasdaq. In early May, the DOW came within 80 points, or less than 1% of its all-time high.

Over the last several weeks, the DOW has fought back and is now attempting to move into uncharted territory. Will it make it? Based on the entire technical picture across a multitude of frames, this is a very high possibility, and can happen within days.

For this week's charts, let's take a look at the large picture on the monthlies for the DOW, and the real benchmark, the S&P500. Based upon what we will see, a move to the new high on the part of the DOW should not really be a cause for bullish celebration as it is likely going to be drummed-up to be by the media. Let's take a look: SEE chart 1







Chart Notations:

The Monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above addresses the Intermediate-to-Long-Term time horizon.

Note the DOW has now far exceeded the .786 Fib retracement (red), which technicals suggests a high probability move to greater than 100% retracement. Because this means an ATH is in play, this is therefore a very significant technical signal.

A move to all-time high is always a move to "uncharted" territory, it will therefore be difficult to derive an initial target to where the market is likely to find its next peak. That's where our next chart will come in handy.

See chart 2

Chart Notations:

The Monthly chart of the S&P500 above addresses the Intermediate-to-Long-Term Time horizon.

In May, the S&P500 reacted to resistance from an important peak (marked in blue) in March of 2001 (the last peak before the WTC event).

At this point the S&P500 is back attempting to break through that level. Sustained trade above would put a move to the next technical resistance into play, and that is the .786 Fib retracement of the bear market (red). This level sits at approximately 1384.

If the DOW were to break to an all-time high very soon, it would likely drag the S&P500 along with it and therefore put the move to that .786 Fib mark at 1384 S&P500. If we were to translate this over to the Dow, then that means that if the DOW moves into ATH territory, the initial target there would be at approximately the 12,100 to 12,300 level.

See chart 3



Chart Notations:

The Daily chart of the S&P500 addresses the very short-term time frame only.

Here we see the detail of the peak over this summer in early May. The S&P500 has since come back in a very strong way and already far exceeded the .786 fib retracement – the last frontier of technical resistance.

A new 5½-year high is in play, which coincides directly with the ATH in the DOW. Let's look for the market to keep pressing towards a new high over the next few days, particularly if it is trading in positive territory, and especially if exceeding prior day high.

Let us keep in mind that while the trend is up in this time horizon, the market is also pushed right-up against some very important resistance points in multiple time frames, so the best bet is to remain flexible here. There will be plenty of time to play the upside if the market breaks and sustains above resistance; and vice-versa to the downside, if the market gives us a significant reaction to resistance.

 

[dc2000]

I hope you get your price, given the close it looks like Im gonna have to work to get some decent points, looking to short pre market 727 and turn at 675 upto 750 which will put us on target for 820 Friday as always just my thoughts

 

[rav700]

Hello mate,

I am happy if people make profit and am sad if my fellow traders face a loss....
I think you might be right...till a degree....

But one thing is definate, there will be a correction and that too in the first week of october....
I have got till the 20th of october to get a 100 points......I would be surprised if we did not go back to at least my b\e till then.............anyway I hope your article helps the traders who trade on this board.............
And how can I forget best of luck to you in your trading as well mate.......

One more thing Every 29th or th 30th of september the market seems to reach a peak........
Then on monday....................it goes down....

I do not usually go against trends but have traded seasons succesfully.
As long as I break even I am happy and will go back to my currency trading....

I do have an issue and I am not afraid to admit it......
I have a lot of money laid down on this one to reverse.................a lot....

Anyways time to get some sleep.............and wait for dow to hit
10659 for my break even.........
May be I can sleep peacefully after this......
Best of luck
Happy Trading
Rav
( Also well done DC you are the cool trader........... )
Hope your trades go well chindi as well

 

[kriesau]

Hello mate,

I am happy if people make profit and am sad if my fellow traders face a loss....
I think you might be right...till a degree....

I do have an issue and I am not afraid to admit it......
I have a lot of money laid down on this one to reverse.................a lot....

Anyways time to get some sleep.............and wait for dow to hit
10659 for my break even.........
May be I can sleep peacefully after this......
Rav
( Also well done DC you are the cool trader........... )
Hope your trades go well chindi as well

Which SBC do you use and what is the spread ?
You said that you entered your trade at 11681 and your break even is 11659. Why is your b/e 22pts ?

I have three SB accounts
IG Index spread for October is 10pts
Man ST Spread for October is 6pts
Dealing Desk don't offer October contracts but their December contract is 8pts

Good luck for tomorrow - the first two hours might give you the best opportunity to extricate yourself.

 

[rav700]

Which SBC do you use and what is the spread ?
You said that you entered your trade at 11681 and your break even is 11659. Why is your b/e 22pts ?

I have three SB accounts
IG Index spread for October is 10pts
Man ST Spread for October is 6pts
Dealing Desk don't offer October contracts but their December contract is 8pts

Good luck for tomorrow - the first two hours might give you the best opportunity to extricate yourself.

Hi mate,

My current status is short @11681 stop @11881 and my target =11581 current price with IG is 11720 hence my current position is in -39......

So I need the dow from the current position for cash which is 11689 to come down to 11666
( There is nothing significant about this figure is there now) haha

So 11666 is what I require ................
Lets see what happens.....

Thanks Kriesau for you advice and support


Rav

 

[dc2000]

Hi Rav as you say you can always exit at B/E and there should be 2 exits if this weeks price goes to plan

they are at 11659 and 11638 although for the 2nd your stop may be slightly close these are Dow cash prices

 

[Hook Shot]

Rav - sleep no need...play the Asx in OZ spike Wed means vulnerable - potentially.

Kriesau - yep still in position - nothing's really changed. The lunchtime dip wasn't enough to make it worth my while - so whilst I WANT it to go down - I've got to play DEFENCE , hold my nose and go long - short term.

If I was a Big Dogg I'd ramp this index really high to trap the late bulls and give the bears a good going over - before pulling the plug. Come on ...... we're virtually at the HIGHEST LEVEL that the Dow has EVER seen (with Spx well short) - surely (?) there were better places to go long than close to an ALL TIME HIGH.

Rav - you have right idea .......... but this is Nirvana Zone.....a Serene Moment ..... a Sweetsot for shorts providing we have a little more patience. You'll make an absolute killing you wait and see!

Hook Shot (still working on my continuous improvement program!)

 

[dc2000]

there were better places to go long than close to an ALL TIME HIGH

you are thinking like a trader and not the average joe who reads the weekend papers and wants a slice come Monday

 

[rav700]

Rav - sleep no need...play the Asx in OZ spike Wed means vulnerable - potentially.

Kriesau - yep still in position - nothing's really changed. The lunchtime dip wasn't enough to make it worth my while - so whilst I WANT it to go down - I've got to play DEFENCE , hold my nose and go long - short term.

If I was a Big Dogg I'd ramp this index really high to trap the late bulls and give the bears a good going over - before pulling the plug. Come on ...... we're virtually at the HIGHEST LEVEL that the Dow has EVER seen (with Spx well short) - surely (?) there were better places to go long than close to an ALL TIME HIGH.

Rav - you have right idea .......... but this is Nirvana Zone.....a Serene Moment ..... a Sweetsot for shorts providing we have a little more patience. You'll make an absolute killing you wait and see!

Hook Shot (still working on my continuous improvement program!)

I almost thought I was the only one bearish on the board with all the bullish comments........
Alas I find the hookshot to calm my nerves down a bit.....haha
Comeon you bears.........My thoughts match up with yours mate.........

I have just been looking at all the charts for the last 10 years and seems to be a pattern around this time for the bears to come out and take advantage.....will have to wait and see....

Thanks mate

Rav