Dollar Yen where's it gonna base??

Nah, it's late headlines out of Japan:
BANK OF JAPAN IS CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL STEPS TO LOOSEN MONETARY POLICY -NIKKEI
BOJ MAY DECIDE TO TAKE ACTION SOONER BY CONVENING AN EXTRAORDINARY MEETING, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS -NIKKEI
BOJ IS CONSIDERING BOOSTING ITS FACILITY THAT PROVIDES THREE-MONTH FUNDING AT 0.1% TO JPY 30 TRILLION -NIKKEI
JAPAN'S MINISTRY OF FINANCE MAY CONSIDER UNILATERAL YEN-SELLING MARKET INTERVENTIONS IF SPECULATORS DRIVE UP CURRENCY -NIKKEI
 
"IF"??? speculators drive up currency, are they maybe missing the fact that it hit a 15 year high against usd a few hours ago?

Central banks???
 
Black Swan said:
closed at 84.20 (rules based)...no fireworks, just a few pips..all adds up etc..
Click to expand...

No excitement boring trading. Keep repeating day after day after day... At the end of the month only exciting thing is your account balance.(y)
 
bedsit said:
No excitement boring trading. Keep repeating day after day after day... At the end of the month only exciting thing is your account balance.(y)
Click to expand...

Well trading is supposed to be a business and not an extreme sport...

Strong buying activity in usd/jpy this afternoon, when it threatened 84.00 again.

BoJ intervention?
 
UJ looks like it's going down at the moment. It's a bit indecisive and I wouldn't trade it.
 
jon1971 said:
Well trading is supposed to be a business and not an extreme sport...

Strong buying activity in usd/jpy this afternoon, when it threatened 84.00 again.

BoJ intervention?
Click to expand...

Wouldn't say todays action was anything out of the ordinary given yesterdays range and the fact a new low was hit
 
bedsit said:
UJ looks like it's going down at the moment. It's a bit indecisive and I wouldn't trade it.
Click to expand...
Yeah good thinking and relates to your point about safe, boring trades, avoiding dangerous trend reversal territory.
 
Dollar Yen dipping again this morning, I noticed at the 72 level, you can draw the shallowest of trend lines from 57 through 65.

Still expecting a major dip towards 83 and possibly lower?...

Fundamentals - BoJ are still being "evasive" on intervention...

Anyone care to comment?
 
Run into resistance from fibo, S3 and MA confluence (100SMA on 5 min).
 

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Trade update - original position was stopped out BE, took a long at 83.40 yesterday, took profit on 50% at 83.90, 50% stopped out 83.65...

Now looking for another dip to get long, target entry around 83.30 or below.

It's already bounced and rallied 20 pips off 83.50 this morning so now not looking likely.
 
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PS. I'm fully aware that this is bottom picking, but given the fact it's making fresh decade lows and there is much talk of intervention, I believe that these are extenuating circumstances.
 
The trailing stop is the key. However you play it. No harm I reckon in taking a few bites at the cherry down here as long as, if you get stopped out a few times along the way, the one or two bigger moves pay for it.

The main issue is in WHEN the intervention for which you are praying is likely to take place.

If it's in Asian time (and it may not be, but there's a decent chance) then will you be in or not?
If not, are you placing topside stop entry orders overnight or not?
If so, what sort of slippage are you going to see over intervention? Likely lots
If you're long already, the risk is that exactly the sort of nasty dip down that will see the MoF want to step in is the sort of move that might have hit your stop first. So it drops a quick 100 points, you're out, BOOM in come the MoF

Just one scenario I'm throwing up there.

So I think you need to have a plan if you're going to play intervention in usdjpy.

Just thinking out loud

GJ
 
GammaJammer said:
The trailing stop is the key. However you play it. No harm I reckon in taking a few bites at the cherry down here as long as, if you get stopped out a few times along the way, the one or two bigger moves pay for it.

The main issue is in WHEN the intervention for which you are praying is likely to take place.

If it's in Asian time (and it may not be, but there's a decent chance) then will you be in or not?
If not, are you placing topside stop entry orders overnight or not?
If so, what sort of slippage are you going to see over intervention? Likely lots
If you're long already, the risk is that exactly the sort of nasty dip down that will see the MoF want to step in is the sort of move that might have hit your stop first. So it drops a quick 100 points, you're out, BOOM in come the MoF

Just one scenario I'm throwing up there.

So I think you need to have a plan if you're going to play intervention in usdjpy.

Just thinking out loud

GJ
Click to expand...

Some very good points...

I've been placing overnight limit orders to buy 10 to 20 pips below the low, with a reasonably generous stop loss.

My strategy has been to take longs on dips to levels where price has already demonstrated demand... there is always the danger of a sharp decline much further than anticipated, but so far the gains have outweighed any loses.

Hmmm, perhaps a topside breakout strategy, some good food for thought... Obviously once this eventually does base the opportunity will exist to start building a solid long term position.
 
I saw somewhere this week that retail sentiment in this pair is net long, which likely means the "smart" money is still on the short side...

Here's the 20 year chart for a bit of historical context...
 

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