Does technical analysis work or not?

[babyjake1961]

I don't see it as evil banks/brokers deliberately moving prices against us. They just sit comfortably on the other side of our trades knowing the market is impossible to predict consistently which guarantees their inevitable win and our loss in the long run, making it all just a matter of time.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

I don't see it as evil banks/brokers deliberately moving prices against us. They just sit comfortably on the other side of our trades knowing the market is impossible to predict consistently which guarantees their inevitable win and our loss in the long run, making it all just a matter of time.

Prices are moved by fairies then ? If someone tells you prices in Walmarts are set by fairies, would you believe them ? Perhaps it's quite a normal practice for shops to set their prices ? There's nothing evil about it. The price should be set at a profitable level or what would be the point of running a business ?

 

[babyjake1961]

Prices are moved by fairies then ? If someone tells you prices in Walmarts are set by fairies, would you believe them ? Perhaps it's quite a normal practice for shops to set their prices ? There's nothing evil about it. The price should be set at a profitable level or what would be the point of running a business ?

Prices are moved by buyers and sellers of one currency for another (in case with Forex) in accordance with their need for a specific currency at a specific point of time and/or their own speculative price projections. As they seldomly trade in unison and there are unpredictable multiple factors impacting their decisions that hit the wires all the time, the price movements are essentially impossible to predict consistently.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Prices are moved by buyers and sellers

Shop prices are always moved by the seller. This can be demonstrated by your walking into Walmart and demanding the prices to be moved. It won't work. The prices will only move when the seller is good and ready, and for their own purpose alone.

 

[babyjake1961]

Shop prices are always moved by the seller. This can be demonstrated by your walking into Walmart and demanding the prices to be moved. It won't work. The prices will only move when the seller is good and ready, and for their own purpose alone.

Clearly, I meant transactions, not any verbal demands.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Clearly, I meant transactions, not any verbal demands.

OK then, if you walk into Walmart and make a transaction. It still will not change their price. The price will only change when they feel like it, maybe after lunch, or maybe next week.

 

[forker]

Meanwhile another provider is offering the price

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Meanwhile another provider is offering the price

That doesn't change the fact the buyer had no say on the first seller's price. Same will be true at the second seller, the third, the forth ... Look's like its a seller's market, as it should be.

 

[forker]

Which is why the brokers use multiple liquidity providers

 

[babyjake1961]

OK then, if you walk into Walmart and make a transaction. It still will not change their price. The price will only change when they feel like it, maybe after lunch, or maybe next week.

Just like when you exchange a $100 bill for Euros at your local bank's branch, it alone won't impact the EURUSD exchange rate. Yet when a huge investment fund trades billions of their dollars for Euros, the rate will be impacted.

 

[new_trader]

Shop prices are always moved by the seller. This can be demonstrated by your walking into Walmart and demanding the prices to be moved. It won't work. The prices will only move when the seller is good and ready, and for their own purpose alone.

NONSENSE!

What governs prices in the consumer market is exactly what governs prices in the financial markets i.e. The LAW of supply and demand. Sure, a shopkeeper can price his or her goods or services at 10 times their competitor’s but they won’t stay in business for very long.

The LAW of supply and demand dictates prices throughout the entire production process from the higher order producers right down to the consumer. The price of a loaf of bread is determined by the price of flour which is determined by the price of wheat. If consumers aren’t buying bread (no demand) this impacts the demand for flour which impacts the demand for wheat which ultimately leads to falling prices of wheat. So in the end it is the consumer's demand (or lack of) for bread that determines the price of wheat.

How have you been wasting your time since you’ve been away Joe?

 

[forker]

Making money, obviously

 

[babyjake1961]

Making money, obviously

Enriching himself beyond his wildest dreams!:smart:

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

NONSENSE!

What governs prices in the consumer market is exactly what governs prices in the financial markets i.e. The LAW of supply and demand. Sure, a shopkeeper can price his or her goods or services at 10 times their competitor’s but they won’t stay in business for very long.

The LAW of supply and demand dictates prices throughout the entire production process from the higher order producers right down to the consumer. The price of a loaf of bread is determined by the price of flour which is determined by the price of wheat. If consumers aren’t buying bread (no demand) this impacts the demand for flour which impacts the demand for wheat which ultimately leads to falling prices of wheat. So in the end it is the consumer's demand (or lack of) for bread that determines the price of wheat.

How have you been wasting your time since you’ve been away Joe?

Wheeling out the o'level economics are we ? If that works, we'd see more successes here. But we don't.

Let me give you the real reasons why prices move. It's all to do with the seller's inventory. If inventory is high, no amount of demand will move the price up. If the inventory is low, no amount of lack of demand will move the price lower.

A further reason for price moves is to do with profit. If a profit is available when the price moves, then the price will move. This alone will defeat all TAs.

I have been away from all the useless distractions so that I could see what's going on. I have seen all I wanted to see, and so I am back for some lulz.

 

[new_trader]

Wheeling out the o'level economics are we ? If that works, we'd see more successes here. But we don't.

Let me give you the real reasons why prices move. It's all to do with the seller's inventory. If inventory is high, no amount of demand will move the price up. If the inventory is low, no amount of lack of demand will move the price lower.

A further reason for price moves is to do with profit. If a profit is available when the price moves, then the price will move. This alone will defeat all TAs.

I have been away from all the useless distractions so that I could see what's going on. I have seen all I wanted to see, and so I am back for some lulz.

This post is almost THE definition of circular reasoning.

 

[piphoe]

TA is not much more than curve fitting to the data, I believe

 

[dbphoenix]

Wheeling out the o'level economics are we ? If that works, we'd see more successes here. But we don't.

Let me give you the real reasons why prices move. It's all to do with the seller's inventory. If inventory is high, no amount of demand will move the price up. If the inventory is low, no amount of lack of demand will move the price lower.

A further reason for price moves is to do with profit. If a profit is available when the price moves, then the price will move. This alone will defeat all TAs.

Actually it's all to do with the buyer's willingness to buy. If inventory is high and buyers aren't willing to pay a premium, the seller must lower his price in order to move his product (your favorite store has been faced with this issue). If buyers are willing to pay a premium, the seller is free to raise his price. Happens every second of every trading day.

If inventory is low and so is demand, then, no, price will not move lower unless and until the seller is willing to lower his prices in order to transact business. If he isn't, then no transaction takes place and price doesn't move. "Lack of demand" is not so much the issue as an intransigent seller.

The "stock market" is an auction market. Wal-Mart is not an auction market, nor is a bank.

Db

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

This post is almost THE definition of circular reasoning.

Maybe, the circularity is in relation to spikes where no real supply/demand/inventory change. I don't care about them, but it's relevant for the thread because it's something I don't see how the TA'er can escape from.

 

[Oscar Reed]

.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Actually it's all to do with the buyer's willingness to buy.

But they are willing to buy. I can see people here banging the door down just to get a piece of the action. They'd get angry with me if I tell them it's a bad idea.

Typical retail buyers for financial assets are pretty dumb. All the bank has to do is to lift the price and people will be queuing up for it. This doesn't occur at Walmart, and this is the reason I use Walmart as an example. People should buy from the market in the same discerning way as they do at Walmart.