Does technical analysis work or not?

[counter_violent]

It has everything to do with TA. Without TA, nobody will put their money in. If no money goes in, the banks will make bugger all profit.

I don't know, are you still a mod ? We could be skipping on thin ice.

Do pension funds put money in cos of TA. No, it goes in because it has to have a home and be earning and growing.

Yes I'm still a mod, does this have some relevance?

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Do pension funds put money in cos of TA. No, it goes in because it has to have a home and be earning and growing.

Yes I'm still a mod, does this have some relevance?

Does it really matter what they use ? In the end your pension is a gonner anyway. But that's a different market. For retail forex or cfd, TA is the bread and butter of the banks. I will even say it's the bread and butter of forum operators too. It will surely be a disaster for all if TA is found to be less than savoury. But you should have no fear, the retail joes will grasp at anything remotely reassembling a straw.

Being mod is good, offers a safety net should you mess with any fancy new TA idea and it goes belly up.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Welcome back Joe... no longer a beginner then ?

Oh, hello, yes, is that you ?

Well, I got tired of being a beginner.

 

[forker]

This thread has lulz potential

 

[counter_violent]

Oh, hello, yes, is that you ?

Well, I got tired of being a beginner.

I'm having trouble spotting the difference.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

I'm having trouble spotting the difference.

Funny man Eddie Murphy once said the real kungfu master bleeds on the inside. The surface is often deceptive. Like TA really, on the surface it looks like salvation.

 

[babyjake1961]

Well, I simply think of it this way: you have some TA setup in place and all indicators you're using (whatever they are) point to the downside. You go short but then there's a data release or an official's public statement that make the price go up. Or, worse, the price just goes up in absence of any clear catalyst. So how would your TA-based market entry be any different from a random one?

 

[dbphoenix]

Well, I simply think of it this way: you have some TA setup in place and all indicators you're using (whatever they are) point to the downside. You go short but then there's a data release or an official's public statement that make the price go up. Or, worse, the price just goes up in absence of any clear catalyst. So how would your TA-based market entry be any different from a random one?

If your entry is based on indicators, it probably wouldn't.

Db

 

[forker]

It isn't different and it is at the same time

 

[babyjake1961]

If your entry is based on indicators, it probably wouldn't.

Db

Indicators or chart patterns or whatever else that you use as a basis in your TA. The economic data released or officials' statements don't care about any of that anyway when they hit the market. The same is with fundamental analysis: not only you need to guess an outcome of an event but also the market's reaction to it. Sure, you can do it sometimes but consistently if you're not privy to insider info?

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

So how would your TA-based market entry be any different from a random one?

There is no difference regardless the the chosen entry method. In order for the bank to make a profit, they have to move price against you. The direction and method of entry is irrelevant. Given that the price move is so predictable, maybe someone can take advantage of it. Being able to predict the future must have some value.

 

[forker]

We all know news events are volatile and it should be expected to violate any form of analysis. That doesn't mean TA is useless all of the time!

 

[babyjake1961]

There is no difference regardless the the chosen entry method. In order for the bank to make a profit, they have to move price against you. The direction and method of entry is irrelevant. Given that the price move is so predictable, maybe someone can take advantage of it. Being able to predict the future must have some value.

Yet we all make different entries in different directions at different times, based on our individual understanding of technical analysis. So how can banks profit by moving the price against each one of us?

 

[babyjake1961]

We all know news events are volatile and it should be expected to violate any form of analysis. That doesn't mean TA is useless all of the time!

Sure, but you can't temporarily exit the market with your trades that have reached neither TP nor SL by the news time - which isn't even always known, whereas data is released all the time and you can't tell which bit of it will turn out to be a major market mover.

 

[counter_violent]

Yet we all make different entries in different directions at different times, based on our individual understanding of technical analysis. So how can banks profit by moving the price against each one of us?

See post 18

 

[dbphoenix]

Indicators or chart patterns or whatever else that you use as a basis in your TA. The economic data released or officials' statements don't care about any of that anyway when they hit the market. The same is with fundamental analysis: not only you need to guess an outcome of an event but also the market's reaction to it. Sure, you can do it sometimes but consistently if you're not privy to insider info?

None of that matters. Indicators lag too much. Patterns are unreliable. But if one is trading shifts between demand and supply, he can trade the shift. These shifts cannot be hidden as they are illustrated by the trades themselves.

Db

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

So how can banks profit by moving the price against each one of us?

One common way way is to spike the price to reel the profit in from one direction and lock in the people facing the other direction for later consumption. This is a function of news events.

TA is useless against these type of actions because these are based on the present positions which bear no relation to past patterns (as a consequence of previous positions) that TA might have analysed.

 

[forker]

One common way way is to spike the price to reel the profit in from one direction and lock in the people facing the other direction for later consumption. This is a function of news events.

TA is useless against these type of actions because these are base on the present positions which bear no relation to past positions that TA had analysed.

This might have been common practice years ago, it isn't today. Liquidity providers make spread and swap. There is too much competition these days for any one to purposely spike prices. The result of them doing this will be less clients doing business with them and they don't want that.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

This might have been common practice years ago, it isn't today. Liquidity providers make spread and swap. There is too much competition these days for any one to purposely spike prices. The result of them doing this will be less clients doing business with them and they don't want that.

Spiking is common occurrence that happens every week. You don't trade, so you might not know.

 

[forker]

You are just assuming now.