Does 200% gain per year sound ridiculous?

[BILLV]

And I'm Elvis.

The king?

 

[the hare]

If you want to think random 50/50 then it's really about the direction price will move from the random entry.....

ummm..... as someone who makes my living from trading random entries, I'm not sure I entirely agree

If you want to think about random entries (which can eaily make you 200% a year if you are crazy enough to tolerate 25%-30% drawdowns), you need to focus on 3 main areas, and once profitable, there are 2 or 3 secondary aspects that you could consider if you really wanted to !

The direction price is moving at any point in time doesnt really enter the equation. And before anyone asks, no I wont let any cats out of bags, well, at least not at the t2w zoo.

 

[p-lab]

And people seem to be too naive about the profitability of ordinary small to medium businesses , such as convenience stores / corner shops, small trading businesses that actually do make 200% per year, within the lmits of their market.

If a corner shop owner invests £20,000 to fill the shop's shelves, he expects after buying and selling new stock several times, in a year, to have got back £60,000 by year end.

This may have been answered already but I'm afraid you are the one who is very much naive in regard to 'Corner shop retailing'. Sure you can talk a good sim trade but please don't align it with a business model you clearly know nothing about.

 

[new_trader]

ummm..... as someone who makes my living from trading random entries, I'm not sure I entirely agree

If you want to think about random entries (which can eaily make you 200% a year if you are crazy enough to tolerate 25%-30% drawdowns), you need to focus on 3 main areas, and once profitable, there are 2 or 3 secondary aspects that you could consider if you really wanted to !

The direction price is moving at any point in time doesnt really enter the equation. And before anyone asks, no I wont let any cats out of bags, well, at least not at the t2w zoo.

All this mystery and know-how suggests that your entries are systematic, not random.

 

[barjon]

ummm..... as someone who makes my living from trading random entries, I'm not sure I entirely agree

If you want to think about random entries (which can eaily make you 200% a year if you are crazy enough to tolerate 25%-30% drawdowns), you need to focus on 3 main areas, and once profitable, there are 2 or 3 secondary aspects that you could consider if you really wanted to !

The direction price is moving at any point in time doesnt really enter the equation. And before anyone asks, no I wont let any cats out of bags, well, at least not at the t2w zoo.

Hare

I wasn't really talking about how to trade randomly, but just trying to move from the proposition that 50:50 means an equal chance of winning or losing. True, I went on to suggest that if the market is truly random then 50:50 relates to the direction price may take, not the trade itself.

Mind you, since you need price to have moved in a favourable direction to book a profit, I can't see how it doesn't enter the equation. Maybe you could enlighten us zoo inhabitants without letting the cat escape

jon

 

[DionysusToast]

'not get anywhere'? that's just your opinion, I respect your opinion, now can we agree to disagree, please? it's too complicated to talk about my losing years, what I learned, what worked, what didn't, and what I paid to learn from the veterans.


if you actively put your mind 11 years to something, you will get results, but you can see it more clearly on poker players, I know such a player, he was losing money for many years, then slowlly and finally became a selective player, he would only play against those he felt he could win, are you suggesting his losing years taught him nothing?

You quite easily spend 11 years trying to learn to trade and not get anywhere. It's simply a matter of fact that most information available publicly about trading is total nonsense.

If you stick to trading books, trading forums as your source of information on how to trade, then you could spend a lifetime not getting it.

I believe you have been equipped with a fair amount of knowledge on what doesn't work. I do not believe you have any knowledge on what does.

Now - why not outline one of your option trades for us? You don't have to give up the methodology, just show us a few of your SIM trades.

 

[DionysusToast]

He doesn't play against better players, he does not drink alcohol / halucinogen substances, he uses all clues available to outhink the opponent. He uses all the signals he learned in his life and in his losing years, how to read a man's expression and how to calculate probabilities of good hands showing up.

In one occasion I was present, he beat the other guy in a long 3 hour session and took all his money, I later asked him, how is this possible, to always beat these opponents, and he said to me: ' this opponent you just saw, has a habbit of playing his fingers on the table everytime he raises the stake to push a bluff' he could tell the other guy's intentions by watching his fingers. he had different ways for each opponent, and never ever played the better players, and he wins always, are you suggesting his losing years did not help him?

if a trader trades mechanically, does not assess the facts, and does not develop at least one winning strategy in that overall losing activity, then you are right to say that his losing trading will not get him anywhere.

Lovely story BUT

Trading ISN'T poker.
The guy in the story isn't you.
You can't see you opponent scratching his nuts when he makes a bet. (in trading that is)

Analogies are sweet but to be honest, a lot of people understand trading well enough that you can just talk about it directly.

 

[wackypete2]

You can't see you opponent scratching his nuts when he makes a bet.

That means he has a pair.
Of course in trading that's a simple scratch.

Peter

 

[DionysusToast]

It's not so much the claim...

It's not so much the 200%...

It's the fact this guy traded for 8 years and lost 25k, then sim traded for 3 years and think's he's found a magic bullet.

Options, no less.

If he'd put up a couple of trades, everyone would see the usual, high win rate, high risk, low reward system that caused Howie to crash a while back.

Still - much better to discuss probabilities & poker.

 

[VielGeld]

^ Yeah, I used to do options, and high risk : low reward sounds about right.

Both sides of the trade have to overcome time value (even sellers), commissions are absurd & spreads sucks on anything outside of SPY, all combined to delta make it so you have to be a swing trader at the minimum to have a chance at making anything. And when you have to look out further... Hello absurd premiums.

[/Rant]

Now, options combined to stocks is much more viable, imo. I very much believe that the use of options to enhance a stock trade is a better alternative to a pure option strat since you're somewhat negating the effect of time value & non-linearity.

But otherwise, I'm done with that sucker's play.

 

[vergis92]

You quite easily spend 11 years trying to learn to trade and not get anywhere. It's simply a matter of fact that most information available publicly about trading is total nonsense.

If you stick to trading books, trading forums as your source of information on how to trade, then you could spend a lifetime not getting it.

I believe you have been equipped with a fair amount of knowledge on what doesn't work. I do not believe you have any knowledge on what does.

Now - why not outline one of your option trades for us? You don't have to give up the methodology, just show us a few of your SIM trades.

Books are small part of the story, veteran traders are the most valuable source of real information, and most of what I learned comes from these, I don't claim to have reinvented the wheel.

my techniques come down to 2 types of trading: high probability / poor probability but with way to gain most losses back.

1) directional trades where probability of making a profit is very high, but still highly stressful as all trades open as losers, and in the case of FX scalping, it's really stressful, Risk/Reward ratio on the average trade is like 3:1, most trades reach -$3X before finally reaching $x and I close fora profit, ugly RR ratio but given a very high probability of winning,it works more than any popular method I have seen. this only works around 7-8 days, in the month, the other days cannot be scalped safely using this method.

2) Directional stock trading, much lesss accurate than the fx scalping, at least the timing is not accurate, but most trades sooner or later make a profit, and I can even hedge a losing trade. (profitability is good enough)

3) Asymmetrical hedging, hedge a long stock so that hedging does not work dollar for dollar, more specifically, makes $1000 when the commodity /stock rises X%,
but only lose $300 if the same commodity drops by X%
(This kind of trading very few people know, even most economics gaduates don't know, I only saw one English investor once in London who claimed to have been using such a technique, and I suspect he uses 4 different brokers, not even the brokerage firm emploees can figure it out), it's very difficult to fiure out because it's essentially arbitrage whose conditions are not always there, and are very difficultto spot because you are dealing with a multivariable problem.

Just like in sports arbitrage you cannot figure out if there's riskless a profit margin
by just looking at the odds, you have to use the arbitrage formula

1/a + 1/b + 1/c etc this is how much you need to place to make $1, if the sum comes to less than $1, there's riskless profit margin, and you cannot tell by just looking at the numbers.

There's also appears to be a riskless CARRY trade between crude oil and USD:CAD when the interest rate differentials are right, those of you that have the money and the courage, might want to investigate further. (I have not tested tis trade in full so cannot confirm anything)

In the simulated Options acc, I traded from $150K to $250K, small magnitude directional moves in sideways market, no extensive or riskless hedging, and this includes losses too, but overall getting the direction of the market right.


Why options and not futures? I am affraid of sudden crashes like we saw 2 years ago, where the Dow fell 1000 points in a day, out of the blue, a futures trade would have been stopped, an Option or a stock would not have suffered.
Options have their own limitations, but so be it.

I am probably using the same indicators as you do, some TA, the COT report, some intersector analysis etc. and few indicators specific to detecting tops and bottoms.


Simple, boring profitable systems like those winning traders here at the site use, I never really invented anything new

 

[DionysusToast]

"I am probably using the same indicators as you do, some TA, the COT report, some intersector analysis etc. and few indicators specific to detecting tops and bottoms. "

No - you are not using the same indicators as me because I do not use indicators. Well - I use Cumulative Delta but I don't really consider it an indicator per se. As for indicators specific to detecting tops & bottoms... 11 years in and you still believe such fairy tales?

So - will you post up an options trade for us to look at or not? There's the proof of the pudding. Even better - you must have SOME money. Why not put a few small sized live trades on & show us how they perform?

If your techniques work - you can probably pull in $5-$10k per student teaching it and then end up trading your own pot. If that's not your thing what better way to attract investors than to put some of your money where your mouth is.

 

[N Rothschild]

200% is easily done if your a quality trader. I could return 200% in one trade with a tenner on a spread bet account no bother!

 

[vergis92]

So - will you post up an options trade for us to look at or not? .

As far as this coming week goes, I have the impression of some kind of a decline / correction coming, If I were trading I'd be looking to sell into any early week rallies, markets seem to be at crossroads, with the downside most likely to prevail, but I need to see monday's /may be tuesday's close before I would trade anything.
If so I will detail a hypothetical trade.

 

[Ross Spur]

As far as this coming week goes, I have the impression of some kind of a decline / correction coming, If I were trading I'd be looking to sell into any early week rallies, markets seem to be at crossroads, with the downside most likely to prevail, but I need to see monday's /may be tuesday's close before I would trade anything.
If so I will detail a hypothetical trade.

Great, then we can all become hypothetically rich.

 

[DionysusToast]

As far as this coming week goes, I have the impression of some kind of a decline / correction coming, If I were trading I'd be looking to sell into any early week rallies, markets seem to be at crossroads, with the downside most likely to prevail, but I need to see monday's /may be tuesday's close before I would trade anything.
If so I will detail a hypothetical trade.

Why will you not place a live trade?

Is your confidence low that you simply cannot take the risk on a single trade?

Surely you must have some money to trade? You can't be totally penniless.

Why not take some out of the bank at 2% and put it into your system at 200%.

 

[anley]

3) Asymmetrical hedging, hedge a long stock so that hedging does not work dollar for dollar, more specifically, makes $1000 when the commodity /stock rises X%,
but only lose $300 if the same commodity drops by X%
(This kind of trading very few people know, even most economics gaduates don't know, I only saw one English investor once in London who claimed to have been using such a technique, and I suspect he uses 4 different brokers, not even the brokerage firm emploees can figure it out), it's very difficult to fiure out because it's essentially arbitrage whose conditions are not always there, and are very difficultto spot because you are dealing with a multivariable problem.

Sorry but you have to be a little bit more realistic about what you're doing.

Look at it this way, whatever secrets you know about trading and whatever little known secret trading strategies you have, they aren't secrets and they aren't little known.

There are traders out there who are about 10,000 times more sophisticated than you'll ever be. For example, you'll be using a £400 Dell laptop but they invested $100,000,000 in their computer systems last year. I admit that more investment doesn't always mean superior results.

 

[anley]

As far as this coming week goes, I have the impression of some kind of a decline / correction coming, If I were trading I'd be looking to sell into any early week rallies, markets seem to be at crossroads, with the downside most likely to prevail, but I need to see monday's /may be tuesday's close before I would trade anything.
If so I will detail a hypothetical trade.

Are you going to employ your 'secret' strategy here, the one that most people haven't a clue about?

PS. It's not buying an out of the money Put is it?

 

[vergis92]

Sorry but you have to be a little bit more realistic about what you're doing.

Look at it this way, whatever secrets you know about trading and whatever little known secret trading strategies you have, they aren't secrets and they aren't little known.

There are traders out there who are about 10,000 times more sophisticated than you'll ever be. For example, you'll be using a £400 Dell laptop but they invested $100,000,000 in their computer systems last year. I admit that more investment doesn't always mean superior results.

Well it's mostly independent investors, usually undercapitalized who really figure these things out, it's not the well financed institutional trader. This guy in London started with just under £1m, a lot of money for most of us, but he had a big necessity to win, you don't know what previous losses / previous failed business he may have experienced, or what open bank loan liabilities he had, he really needed to find a way to somehow limit his losses on the losing trades, and he did, he made millions more, and never reveals his secret, which shows how much he believes in him.

and I bet he uses an old computer, do you realize with such a system you can be confident to borrow from the bank to invest? which the bank itself, despite its billions and best traders it can hire can never do.


As for me, I am already in debt, my bank won't lend me anything, if I was to borrow to invest, such a technique is certain success

 

[pboyles]

Well it's mostly independent investors, usually undercapitalized who really figure these things out, it's not the well financed institutional trader. This guy in London started with just under £1m, a lot of money for most of us, but he had a big necessity to win, you don't know what previous losses / previous failed business he may have experienced, or what open bank loan liabilities he had, he really needed to find a way to somehow limit his losses on the losing trades, and he did, he made millions more, and never reveals his secret, which shows how much he believes in him.

and I bet he uses an old computer, do you realize with such a system you can be confident to borrow from the bank to invest? which the bank itself, despite its billions and best traders it can hire can never do.


As for me, I am already in debt, my bank won't lend me anything, if I was to borrow to invest, such a technique is certain success

This sounds familiar, did he by any chance discover this secret whilst fleeing the Nazis?