Does 200% gain per year sound ridiculous?

[vergis92]

I don't think you seem to understand. First of all, what I said remains true. None of the three events above are independent of one another.

Another flaw in your argument is to assume a 50% probability of each of those events. Consider a developed economy in an expansion phase. Consumers are spending, prices are rising, and therefore, corporate profits are rising. In this type of market, there is almost certainly going to be companies that will report better than expected profits. Thus, the probability will be greater than 0.5.

If it makes you feel any better, I do agree with you that trading based entirely on predicting news is not practical. However, your statistical arguments are based entirely on incorrect assumptions and imprecise calculations.

Look at the problem this way (like trying to figure out a combination lock with 3 buttons, each button is a binary digit that can be set to either false or true, (1 or 0))

0.5 represents a binary event, think of it like 1 or 0, (true-false statement) (positive or negative as perceived by investors), you have 2^3= 8 possible combinations, and you pick 1, probability of success of opening the lock is
= 1/8 = 0.125

and yes, my calculations assume that you are in the market already with an open trade, prior to report release time.

I know why you say not independent, but you really have to guess one out of 8, except in cases where last month's report and analsysts' expectation happens to be equal, still gets no better than 25%

have you seen the market rally sharply prior to a report, then upon release of the report it can do its own thing down /stay flat /up. it rallies on anticipation based on one of the 3 binary possibilities, and no matter what happens next, the people on TV will find a way to justify it.

 

[amit1986]

Look at the problem this way (like trying to figure out a combination lock with 3 binary digits)

0.5 represents a binary event, think of it like 0 or 1, (true-false statement) (positive or negative as perceived by investors), you have 2^3= 8 possible combinations, and you pick 1, probability of success = 1/8 = 0.125

and yes, my calculations assume that you are in the market already with an open trade, prior to report release time.

I know why you say not independent, but you really have to guess one out of 8, except in cases where last month's report and analsysts' expectation happens to be equal, still gets no better than 25%

have you seen the market rally sharply prior to a report, then upon release of the report it can do its own thing down /stay flat /up. it rallies on anticipation based on one of the 3 binary possibilities, and no matter what happens next, the people on TV will find a way to justify it.

Possibly one of the most stupidest comments I've read on T2W, thus far. I would say "good luck" but even luck requires some form of intelligence.

 

[new_trader]

This is going to be one of those threads...isn't it? :clap:

 

[the hare]

t2w at its finest. I dont know if I should laugh or cry

 

[Doomberg]

Lulz at this thread, it's excellent.

But yes 200% is possible for a very good trader

 

[MajorDutch]

If you are one of the very very few tarders who consistently make 10% per month and have a long verifiable track record then you can simply name your price. It would then simply come down to how rich you wanted to be and how much control you wanted. but that's stating the blinkin obvious.

 

[safvan]

When I was younger I used to think big, but now, with the benefit of hindsight, I can say without a doubt that slow and steady is the best and most achievable path to wealth. A gain of 200% might be possible for a few years, but the trick is building and keeping your wealth.

Couldnt have said it better. Earning and keeping wealth are two different set of skills.

It does not matter how the wealth comes be it business or inheritance or long term savings. Keeping it is harder than earning it.

 

[Sidekicker]

If you are one of the very very few tarders who consistently make 10% per month and have a long verifiable track record then you can simply name your price. It would then simply come down to how rich you wanted to be and how much control you wanted. but that's stating the blinkin obvious.

You prob need a min 2 year track record of that before even bothering to approach anyone. Furthermore, prop shops with 2k monthly desk fees you may as well avoid and after that it's investment banks where you'll have to work fairly hard. If after 2 years, you're making 10% a month, and more importantly covering your monthly expenses, then you may as well go it alone in this day and age unless you get bored sitting at home trading.

 

[vergis92]

Possibly one of the most stupidest comments I've read on T2W, thus far. I would say "good luck" but even luck requires some form of intelligence.

Honestly my friend, how old are you? or have you devoted your life to news trading and cannot throw it away?

Please come up with your non-ridiculous explanations, and me and the people who believe in 12.5%, because others figured it out before me also, we will gladly accept it.



No matter at what price level your trade is prior to report release, after release, the market will go to the price leve that matches that unique case, out of 8 cases possible.

If you had been in a long trade, and the report beat all the past report and analysts numbers, it will still have to go either up or down depending on whether it had already gone up before the report release time.


I have been trading 11 years, ther's others who have been trading 30 years and winning, tried to figure out ways to predict market direction and failed, then did find all this.

they usually express it as 0.5, But I showed you how it can be expressed as direct binary variables. All these millions of traders who will make a decision upon seeing a report, will react by either buying OR selling, there's no 3rd kind of reaction, hence you have a binary event.

if we are all wrong, please tell us how to make money on the news

 

[barjon]

The trouble with thinking a random 50/50 is that people immediately translate that as having an equal chance of winning or losing. Apart from the somewhat crucial fact that such a thought depends on how you define win or loss, the main flaw in it is that you always have to win more than you lose to cover dealing costs - so it can never be 50/50.

If you want to think random 50/50 then it's really about the direction price will move from the random entry - and it's really about the direction of the next tick at that, with a new 50/50 event occurring on each tick.

 

[Bint_Crusher]

I recently posted a thread looking for acc to trade, and claiming that I can make up to 200% per year using the described techniques, all the response and comments I got were arrogant, implying that I am either a scammer of some kind or that 200% is not possible, or that there's definitely something wrong in the said trading techniques and simulated acc results. (every possibility to eliminate the claim)


How much is a 200% annual gain, in absolute numbers ? it means to tripple a given amount of money, $1 becomes $3 over the course of one year.


And people seem to be too naive about the profitability of ordinary small to medium businesses , such as convenience stores / corner shops, small trading businesses that actually do make 200% per year, within the lmits of their market.

If a corner shop owner invests £20,000 to fill the shop's shelves, he expects after buying and selling new stock several times, in a year, to have got back £60,000 by year end.


As far as the 200% gain a year, I see nothing ridiculous, I just think that most people are conditioned to think suspiciously, and make premature assumptions.



let's see the % gain performance of other, hands-on investments, with direct, tangible assets:


Antiques & fine art investing - it is possible to make 10 fold gains if you try hard enough, if you do nothing, and just buy and sell, you still make 10-20% a year, without serious risk of losing money.


Biofuels investing: You can make a fortune, as long as you invest in the right market, right country, and take advantage of tax loop holes that allow you to sell big quanitties of fuel, such as biodiesel to companies that operate truck fleets.
Profitability? it really has no limit, you can invest $300,000 and make $50 millions over 3 years, or 450% a year.

and no, I cannot match the possible realistic gains of fine art or biofels, in my stock trading by any means, but 200% is possible.

So to the arrogant negative thinkers out there, I can't see what's the big deal when an investment proposal says, that $1 can be turned into $3.:?:

You stick to antiques, fine art and biofuels. Leave the men on here to concentrate on stocks, futures and forex. Approach a few hedge fund holders with yer claims and count the numbers of expletives they use just to give the fork orff tablet.whistling

 

[MajorDutch]

The trouble with thinking a random 50/50 is that people immediately translate that as having an equal chance of winning or losing. Apart from the somewhat crucial fact that such a thought depends on how you define win or loss, the main flaw in it is that you always have to win more than you lose to cover dealing costs - so it can never be 50/50.

If you want to think random 50/50 then it's really about the direction price will move from the random entry - and it's really about the direction of the next tick at that, with a new 50/50 event occurring on each tick.

But is the direction of the next tick 50/50 in a strong trend?

 

[barjon]

But is the direction of the next tick 50/50 in a strong trend?

No such thing as a trend, strong or not, for a random walker

 

[DionysusToast]

I have been trading 11 years, ther's others who have been trading 30 years and winning, tried to figure out ways to predict market direction and failed, then did find all this.

You have not been trading for 11 years.

You have been losing money for 8 years, followed by SIM trading for 3 years.

I have no doubt that those 8 years were spent doing what 99.9999% of retail traders spin their wheels doing - looking for a magic bullet.

At the 11 year mark, you believe you have a magic bullet.

I find it remarkable that someone could spend 11 years on something, not get anywhere and carry on, let alone claim they are an expert.

My mind is boggling.

 

[robster970]

TLDR. Is this another 'grail found, please capitalise me' thread?

 

[Michael8667]

vergis92 do you know Mr Huo Pong?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/143142-forget-email-scam-i-recieved-post.html

 

[BILLV]

As far as the 200% gain a year, I see nothing ridiculous, I just think that most people are conditioned to think suspiciously, and make premature assumptions

Hi vergis92

IMO It won't be an easy task but it can be done using scalping.
If we don't want to use a large starting up capital, then we need to balance the situation with a high volume of trades.
(we're making our $ work harder by reusing the same capital many times in 1 day).

I'm actually experimenting with $1K and the plan is to turn it into $10K in 1 year. This means an appoximate profit of $200/week or $40/day which is hard to do but so far it looks achievable using mini lots and many daily scalps.

I made some mistakes initially but I've turned the situation around.
It is annoying that I have to trade late in the night (during NYLon times) but I'm now making gains every day . When I perfect my technique and assuming I achieve constant results I'll increase my account size and use standard lots aiming to earn $2k/week.

 

[Ross Spur]

Hi vergis92

IMO It won't be an easy task but it can be done using scalping.
If we don't want to use a large starting up capital, then we need to balance the situation with a high volume of trades.
(we're making our $ work harder by reusing the same capital many times in 1 day).

I'm actually experimenting with $1K and the plan is to turn it into $10K in 1 year. This means an appoximate profit of $200/week or $40/day which is hard to do but so far it looks achievable using mini lots and many daily scalps.

I made some mistakes initially but I've turned the situation around.
It is annoying that I have to trade late in the night (during NYLon times) but I'm now making gains every day . When I perfect my technique and assuming I achieve constant results I'll increase my account size and use standard lots aiming to earn $2k/week.

And I'm Elvis.

 

[vergis92]

I find it remarkable that someone could spend 11 years on something, not get anywhere and carry on, let alone claim they are an expert.

My mind is boggling.

'not get anywhere'? that's just your opinion, I respect your opinion, now can we agree to disagree, please? it's too complicated to talk about my losing years, what I learned, what worked, what didn't, and what I paid to learn from the veterans.


if you actively put your mind 11 years to something, you will get results, but you can see it more clearly on poker players, I know such a player, he was losing money for many years, then slowlly and finally became a selective player, he would only play against those he felt he could win, are you suggesting his losing years taught him nothing?

He doesn't play against better players, he does not drink alcohol / halucinogen substances, he uses all clues available to outhink the opponent. He uses all the signals he learned in his life and in his losing years, how to read a man's expression and how to calculate probabilities of good hands showing up.

In one occasion I was present, he beat the other guy in a long 3 hour session and took all his money, I later asked him, how is this possible, to always beat these opponents, and he said to me: ' this opponent you just saw, has a habbit of playing his fingers on the table everytime he raises the stake to push a bluff' he could tell the other guy's intentions by watching his fingers. he had different ways for each opponent, and never ever played the better players, and he wins always, are you suggesting his losing years did not help him?

if a trader trades mechanically, does not assess the facts, and does not develop at least one winning strategy in that overall losing activity, then you are right to say that his losing trading will not get him anywhere.

 

[VielGeld]

Account statement....................

I've heard of some weird trading strats back in my day, but channelling spirits is a new one.