Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

[meanreversion]

You don't need an edge, unless you're a dreamer / fraud / etc who thinks he's trading against someone because there has to be someone on the other side of the trade, or who thinks that trading is a "zero sum" game. You are not and it isn't - plenty of people who show a net loss in their trading win in the markets.

Talking about "edge" is just a distraction in my opinion.

Class A gibberish, well done. Care to elaborate on the "plenty of net losers win in the markets" line?

 

[Pazienza]

Class A gibberish, well done. Care to elaborate on the "plenty of net losers win in the markets" line?

If you like. A manufacturer uses futures to hedge. He loses a little on this activity every year, but this is simply a cost of doing business, like the insurance he pays on his buildings.

One year, the rise in the price of his main raw material is disastrous, but his hedge of course makes him a great deal of money, without which his business would have struggled to survive, or would at least have had to lay off a great many workers.

If you net out his activity, he has lost more than he has won in the futures markets. But his partcipation has allowed him to save his business in a crisis. He retires and sells out his consistently profitable business for a large amount, something he could not have done had he gone under in the disastrous year.

He has lost at his trading, and he has won in the markets.

Let me now if you need any more examples.

 

[Pazienza]

Ok, got it, retail traders make their money from companies losing money on hedges, thanks.

That's not what I said though is it? (Be honest now ).

You asked for an example of how one could lose at trading overall but win in the market, and I gave it.

 

[Pazienza]

Class A gibberish, well done. Care to elaborate on the "plenty of net losers win in the markets" line?

To cut to the chase, beacuse this debate has been done to death so many times, I think that there are endless useless distractions in trading, and this fretting over "edge" or whatever one wants to term it, is just one of those. It's not helpful to imagine oneself engaged in a personal battle with Goldman Sachs or whoever.

Traders would be better off practicing, getting a positive expectancy on their method, and trading it as calmly as they are able. Worrying about edge is just another unnecessary psycological hurdle.

 

[HowardCohodas]

To cut to the chase, beacuse this debate has been done to death so many times, I think that there are endless useless distractions in trading, and this fretting over "edge" or whatever one wants to term it, is just one of those. It's not helpful to imagine oneself engaged in a personal battle with Goldman Sachs or whoever.

Traders would be better off practicing, getting a positive expectancy on their method, and trading it as calmly as they are able. Worrying about edge is just another unnecessary psycological hurdle.

Congratulations! You have just promoted yourself from silly to moron.

 

[Pazienza]

Congratulations! You have just promoted yourself from silly to moron.

Why? A little hyperbole for effect makes one a moron?

 

[Black Swan]

Guys, Patsyana is a multi nic, don't feed the trolls...

 

[tar]

To cut to the chase, beacuse this debate has been done to death so many times, I think that there are endless useless distractions in trading, and this fretting over "edge" or whatever one wants to term it, is just one of those. It's not helpful to imagine oneself engaged in a personal battle with Goldman Sachs or whoever.

Traders would be better off practicing, getting a positive expectancy on their method, and trading it as calmly as they are able. Worrying about edge is just another unnecessary psycological hurdle.

" positive expectancy method " is what they call " edge "

 

[Pazienza]

" positive expectancy method " is what they call " edge "

If you do, then that's fine. We all have different definitions of things - try asking everyone for a definition of scalping or TA for example.

I only take issue with those who think that they need an "edge" because they imagine that they are trying to "beat" the "smartest traders in the world:-0" and all that nonsense.

 

[Pazienza]

Guys, Patsyana is a multi nic, don't feed the trolls...

You don't have to fookin tell them mate, prolly they cba tbh bud, how many pips did you grab today ENDEX.

 

[intradaybill]

" positive expectancy method " is what they call " edge "

Positive expectancy is logically and mathematically equivalent to the self-evident statement that the net profit is positive. This "expectancy" is a buzzword IMO. This guy proves it in a few lines.

The conclusion is that if you make money for some sufficient long time you have an edge. It is only demonstrated after the fact, not before.

 

[Citizen2007]

Couldn't make head or tail of it. All greek to me.

 

[the hare]

The conclusion is that if you make money for some sufficient long time you have an edge. It is only demonstrated after the fact, not before.

Thats true, but there are particular characteristics of markets that have been around for hundreds of years. Its sort of the equivelent of fishing, if you get a boat of a certain size, and a net with a certain size of mesh, and you drag the net through the water in certain geographic locations you'll catch fish.

People have been catching fish in those locations using similar methods for centuries. Its perfectly possible that if you might buy a boat, and a net, the fish might suddenly decide to move elsewhere, or swim in deeper or shallower water, and then your a bit ****ed. But the chances are you'll be OK,

The problem with most of the T2W dunces is that they're trying to catch little fish by waving a net ith a wide mesh in the air rather than dipping it in water ! They dont have an edge. Some dont even understand conceptually what an edge is.

 

[Barramundi]

Thats true, but there are particular characteristics of markets that have been around for hundreds of years. Its sort of the equivelent of fishing, if you get a boat of a certain size, and a net with a certain size of mesh, and you drag the net through the water in certain geographic locations you'll catch fish.

Very true. But you're not going to risk losing any of the fish out of the boat by doing that, as you might lose pips in the markets.

People have been catching fish in those locations using similar methods for centuries. Its perfectly possible that if you might buy a boat, and a net, the fish might suddenly decide to move elsewhere, or swim in deeper or shallower water, and then your a bit ****ed. But the chances are you'll be OK,

Yes, the fish might see the net coming and swim away.

The problem with most of the T2W dunces is that they're trying to catch little fish by waving a net ith a wide mesh in the air rather than dipping it in water !

Yes. They will only catch flying fish that way - if they are very lucky! :clap:

I really think the angling analogy is better. One must risk a little fish (pip) to catch a big fish (pips+).....and by using a big hook (robust platform) and exercising patience, and using your knowledge of the tides, weather, reefs (your edge), you should come home with more fish than what you took out as bait. :cheesy::cheesy::cheesy:

Seriously tho, I don't believe there are any significant differences in the markets from week to week, month to month, year to year. I approached the forex market with an untestested system, forward tested it only and bingo! I didn't need a positive track record to prove it had an edge. But to input the parameters into the equations as described in the article, yes, that would be easiest once you have the figures/trading results.

 

[meanreversion]

Doesn't it depend how efishient the markets are?

 

[Dinos]

yep, being trading trading full time for over a decade now as my only souce of income, after initiallly losing my first 2 pots of dosh, I learnt how to trade, and now enjoy every minute of it, but I'm damned if I'm going to give anything away.

 

[meanreversion]

yep, being trading trading full time for over a decade now as my only souce of income, after initiallly losing my first 2 pots of dosh, I learnt how to trade, and now enjoy every minute of it, but I'm damned if I'm going to give anything away.

er, doesn't your sig give it away a little, you trend follower you?

 

[Dinos]

er, doesn't your sig give it away a little, you trend follower you?

Just a little away, following the trend is the safest option, but it doesn't say how or when etc etc, thats the important bit imho

 

[TheBramble]

Thats true, but there are particular characteristics of markets that have been around for hundreds of years. Its sort of the equivelent of fishing, if you get a boat of a certain size, and a net with a certain size of mesh, and you drag the net through the water in certain geographic locations you'll catch fish.

People have been catching fish in those locations using similar methods for centuries. Its perfectly possible that if you might buy a boat, and a net, the fish might suddenly decide to move elsewhere, or swim in deeper or shallower water, and then your a bit ****ed. But the chances are you'll be OK,

The problem with most of the T2W dunces is that they're trying to catch little fish by waving a net ith a wide mesh in the air rather than dipping it in water ! They dont have an edge. Some dont even understand conceptually what an edge is.

Just a general heads up for any of the newer members: Beware anyone who uses animal analogies for trading.

But if you simply have to, wouldn't you better off listening at least to the one that won the race?

 

[Hotch]

no one has an edge on here. I can almost guarantee it ! they may "think" they have an edge but they don't. they may use sensible risk / reward, MM etc. PA, Support / resistance but this can't be PROVED to be an edge

Just because it can't be PROVED doesn't mean it's not there.