Do you agree with this statement?

[Big_P]

Doesn't your example support what Dampier is saying? As a prediction you are saying that you are wrong 40-45% of the time. Your example is not one of straight directional prediction but of statistical probability that x is more likely than y - presumably what Dampier was getting at.

I don't disagree with you Barjon.

But when you read the whole paragraph, his implication is that any short term daytrading is impossible. He says daytraders "rely on guesswork" and uses the words "professional gambling".

I would argue that if you have a strategy that has positive expectancy and you know that it has a statisical probability of x being more likely that y, such that if you trade your probabilities and grind out your edge, you will make money - then you are neither "relying on guesswork" or "professional gambling"....

And to comment on the use of "edge", I think it is VERY relevant in trading. I will use an example.

You have tested a strategy whereby 60% of your trades will make a profit. As long as your profit/loss ratio exceeds 1:1, then you have an edge. Your edge is the ability to 'grind out' your stategy over time to give yourself a profit. Your edge is the ability to make money when others can't.

 

[Trader333]

or this post? 27097
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ng-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-3871.html

or this post 27124 which was made 40 minutes before the move ,
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3875.html#post2413006

and post 27148
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3879.html#post2413088

Shame so much evidence is needed on an educational forum, but i understand why. is there a written policy in what constitutes evidence, as i suspect the above will qualify for some and not for others that use more formal ways of posting their thoughts.
ie long here to x/y with z pip stop loss.
personally I find that method does not fit trading m1. as i improve im sure i can adapt

Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

 

[barjon]

.......I would argue that if you have a strategy that has positive expectancy and you know that it has a statisical probability of x being more likely that y, such that if you trade your probabilities and grind out your edge, you will make money - then you are neither "relying on guesswork" or "professional gambling"....

............ Your edge is the ability to make money when others can't........

What we do when we trade is to make an assumption about where price will go, take adequate advantage when it does and limit the damage when it doesn't. Whether that assumption is robust and whether you call it a "prediction" or a "guess" is probably much less important than your discipline in managing the outcome.

I'd say that "your edge is the ability to make money when others can't" relies heavily on that discipline.

 

[tar]

Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

Agree but to be fair making money for a month or so doesn't make him a profitable trader , many traders can make money for a month , 30% of US forex retail traders are profitable in any given Q - proved - .

 

[Trader333]

I agree and he only did this as an example because after showing it for a month continuing to do so was pointless. It was quite a while later when a few of us visited him and watched him trade where he had a very profitable afternoon making around $2K if I remember. The way he trades is different to anyone else I have seen trade which is probably why he was (and still is) successful.

 

[tar]

I agree and he only did this as an example because after showing it for a month continuing to do so was pointless. It was quite a while later when a few of us visited him and watched him trade where he had a very profitable afternoon making around $2K if I remember. The way he trades is different to anyone else I have seen trade which is probably why he was (and still is) successful.

I have seen many beautiful equity curves and profitable track records to end in a bad or a horrible way or at least to become obsolete - sideways - , even after years of good performance .

 

[12WBT]

Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

did you trade full time after this.

 

[Mr Fox]

Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

Good Afternoon Trader333,

First of all I hope you've had a profitable day trading, along with all members of this forum.

I totally agree with the essence of your message, and truly believe that without empirical evidence, then claims, however fantastical they are, remain just claims.

I see you have been trading for quite a while, have had the pleasure of watching many a profitable trader grace these boards, learn from them, more importantly learn from Iraj, to the point where you have gained valuable insight to visit him, and watch him trade live. An experience which most newbies would love, as many a great insight/technique can be learnt.

So my question to you is, how profitable are you now, and having the elevated status as a moderator, why not lead by example and post your method with end of day account statements.

I say the above with all due respect, and appreciate it is ones prerogative as to, what to show, and what not to.

Best
John.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Good Afternoon Trader333,

First of all I hope you've had a profitable day trading, along with all members of this forum.

I totally agree with the essence of your message, and truly believe that without empirical evidence, then claims, however fantastical they are, remain just claims.

I see you have been trading for quite a while, have had the pleasure of watching many a profitable trader grace these boards, learn from them, more importantly learn from Iraj, to the point where you have gained valuable insight to visit him, and watch him trade live. An experience which most newbies would love, as many a great insight/technique can be learnt.

So my question to you is, how profitable are you now, and having the elevated status as a moderator, why not lead by example and post your method with end of day account statements.

I say the above with all due respect, and appreciate it is ones prerogative as to, what to show, and what not to.

Best
John.

my question would be, as an integral part of this site, which of those lessons were you allowed to and did share for the education of others. i would love to learn more of what this chap did.

 

[scholfield]

Grey1 was the real deal.
The only person we have here now who likely makes lots of money everyday is DowJones.
(although he mainly only has statements as proof) wheras as Grey1 made the CLEAREST CALLS you could imagine-( not like the games played with the 'calls' in another thread which is best kept out of this, lol) aswell as statements and there was no possible doubt as to whether he was a consistently profitable trader or not.

Unfortunately, this was all in the trade2win glory days, and now we have nothing that comes close.

 

[Splitlink]

Good Afternoon Trader333,

First of all I hope you've had a profitable day trading, along with all members of this forum.

I totally agree with the essence of your message, and truly believe that without empirical evidence, then claims, however fantastical they are, remain just claims.

I see you have been trading for quite a while, have had the pleasure of watching many a profitable trader grace these boards, learn from them, more importantly learn from Iraj, to the point where you have gained valuable insight to visit him, and watch him trade live. An experience which most newbies would love, as many a great insight/technique can be learnt.

So my question to you is, how profitable are you now, and having the elevated status as a moderator, why not lead by example and post your method with end of day account statements.

I say the above with all due respect, and appreciate it is ones prerogative as to, what to show, and what not to.

Best
John.

With all due respect, when I read a post asking for account details I wonder how a person with any sense of privacy would post such details. I would not do it and Trader333, not being a person who is known to talk about his trades, is most unlikely to do so.

You know that already, of course, which is why you asked him to do it in the first place! With one, or two, exceptions most of us prefer to keep our business to ourselves.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Grey1 was the real deal.
The only person we have here now who likely makes lots of money everyday is DowJones.
(although he mainly only has statements as proof) wheras as Grey1 made the CLEAREST CALLS you could imagine-( not like the games played with the 'calls' in another thread which is best kept out of this, lol) aswell as statements and there was no possible doubt as to whether he was a consistently profitable trader or not.

Unfortunately, this was all in the trade2win glory days, and now we have nothing that comes close.

You must be joking mate

I would feel very confident I could out trade this Grey 1 guy if he is still around today

I got a bad reputation at the start for getting up the back of all the old members on this site and due to lags in the system soon realised I would have no chance of calling live scalps - as by the time other members saw them - they would be over

So to compensate - I now give my levels - in advance along with the expected scalp entry points and also bias directions

During the first 8 months on this site - I assisted Major Magnum to learn my method free of charge

He went live over 3 months ago - but as you would expect had the odd psych problems trying to trade with too large a lot size

This week after being challenged to enter a trading competition - on demo run by another site - he decided to open a new demo - share it with us on my live thread and took it up from $3k to nearly $30 k in just a few sessions

I think since then he doubled it again

I certainly would not recommend doing this with a live account - even if starting with just a few thousands - as it breaks normal money management rules

Major Magnum is only the student of my method - but I would be proud myself of his win ratios - ie 75 to 90% and his accuracy from taking short term trades

Obviously being on demo all the haters and dissers will say lucky

That's why I will never - ever now show my live account on any forums

Its drives all haters and non believers round the bend - and to be honest that is one of my own agendas - to frustrate traders who have the chance to learn it free of charge - but would sooner destroy it - so nobody else believe in it

All traders who blog - other than total newbies have agendas

The industry as it own agenda - and for sure it does not want retail traders finding profitable ways to trade FX

Short term intraday trading along with clever MM is the only way that can ride all market changes over time

My method as worked for over 7 years now - with just slight adjustments etc as markets go through cycles

As long as the currency pairs move more than 5 pips and as long as spreads are under 2 pips - - then profit can be made - day in day out

It would not work on 100 lots etc - so useless to the industry - but as long as you are happy to live on anything from $100k to $400 k per annum - with no silly compounding - then this is the method to retail trader

The other part of my own personal agenda is to make it totally free to proper interested studious traders who have at least 12 -18 months existing knowledge

With regards to moderators and staff on this site - surely they should remain neutral - and not side with either the industry - the trade or us retailers

But that man from the industry is talking rubbish - either naively or deliberately as part of the agenda he has

So get this Grey 1 guy to come an make some more live calls - and then see if he can compete with mine ;-))

The cheek of some of the old members here is beyond belief

I really do need to wind them up more - lol

Have a great trading month

I WILL

Regards

F

 

[MajorMagnuM]

You must be joking mate

I would feel very confident I could out trade this Grey 1 guy if he is still around today

I got a bad reputation at the start for getting up the back of all the old members on this site and due to lags in the system soon realised I would have no chance of calling live scalps - as by the time other members saw them - they would be over

So to compensate - I now give my levels - in advance along with the expected scalp entry points and also bias directions

During the first 8 months on this site - I assisted Major Magnum to learn my method free of charge

He went live over 3 months ago - but as you would expect had the odd psych problems trying to trade with too large a lot size

This week after being challenged to enter a trading competition - on demo run by another site - he decided to open a new demo - share it with us on my live thread and took it up from $3k to nearly $30 k in just a few sessions

I think since then he doubled it again

I certainly would not recommend doing this with a live account - even if starting with just a few thousands - as it breaks normal money management rules

Major Magnum is only the student of my method - but I would be proud myself of his win ratios - ie 75 to 90% and his accuracy from taking short term trades

Obviously being on demo all the haters and dissers will say lucky

That's why I will never - ever now show my live account on any forums

Its drives all haters and non believers round the bend - and to be honest that is one of my own agendas - to frustrate traders who have the chance to learn it free of charge - but would sooner destroy it - so nobody else believe in it

All traders who blog - other than total newbies have agendas

The industry as it own agenda - and for sure it does not want retail traders finding profitable ways to trade FX

Short term intraday trading along with clever MM is the only way that can ride all market changes over time

My method as worked for over 7 years now - with just slight adjustments etc as markets go through cycles

As long as the currency pairs move more than 5 pips and as long as spreads are under 2 pips - - then profit can be made - day in day out

It would not work on 100 lots etc - so useless to the industry - but as long as you are happy to live on anything from $100k to $400 k per annum - with no silly compounding - then this is the method to retail trader

The other part of my own personal agenda is to make it totally free to proper interested studious traders who have at least 12 -18 months existing knowledge

With regards to moderators and staff on this site - surely they should remain neutral - and not side with either the industry - the trade or us retailers

But that man from the industry is talking rubbish - either naively or deliberately as part of the agenda he has

So get this Grey 1 guy to come an make some more live calls - and then see if he can compete with mine ;-))

The cheek of some of the old members here is beyond belief

I really do need to wind them up more - lol

Have a great trading month

I WILL

Regards

F

Top Banana.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Top Banana.

Lol MM

Now you know its luck taking 100 trades or so and having over 80% win ratios in just a few days or so

Please don't make any non believers think you might understand price action at the "coalface"

They will not believe you

Think we need to do it with real money though - but not like 2000% in a week - I mean that's ambitious - lol

Nice one

Regards

F

 

[scholfield]

Y
So get this Grey 1 guy to come an make some more live calls - and then see if he can compete with mine ;-))

F

Would hardly be fair if he was putting his balls on the line with realtime calls
''Long her NOW on KLAC at xx.xx''
and you'd be:
''Could be a scalpy long above 45, 46 and 47. Look for scalp sells below 34, 35 and 31 - all assuming time window is correct and teasezone bla bla bla bla...''

Whatever price does, you then claim that you were on the move. It's laughable.

How about I pay for you for a room with a voice feature like Grey1 used to use for your calls? Then there'd be no hiding place for you, lol

As for someone doubling a demo account!!!
Is that supposed to impress anyone??

Honestly.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Would hardly be fair if he was putting his balls on the line with realtime calls
''Long her NOW on KLAC at xx.xx''
and you'd be:
''Could be a scalpy long above 45, 46 and 47. Look for scalp sells below 34, 35 and 31 - all assuming time window is correct and teasezone bla bla bla bla...''

Whatever price does, you then claim that you were on the move. It's laughable.

How about I pay for you for a room with a voice feature like Grey1 used to use for your calls? Then there'd be no hiding place for you, lol

As for someone doubling a demo account!!!
Is that supposed to impress anyone??

Honestly.

well honestly, can you produce the win rate demonstrated on that account?
If so please advise as always keen to understand other methods.

 

[tar]

Such performance cant be dublicated in a decent size live account endex .
I know this as i myself have won 3 public contests with a similar huge performance in a demo account , it doesnt mean much .

 

[Mr Fox]

With all due respect, when I read a post asking for account details I wonder how a person with any sense of privacy would post such details. I would not do it and Trader333, not being a person who is known to talk about his trades, is most unlikely to do so.

You know that already, of course, which is why you asked him to do it in the first place! With one, or two, exceptions most of us prefer to keep our business to ourselves.

Good Evening Splitlink,

I hope you've had a good day trading.

The message I got from reading Trader333's post was that people who make outrageous claims, and hindsight calls, should post proof of their claims, and I totally agree with him. I also agree that people have a choice to post empirical evidence or not.

If the fantasists want to live in a world of ignorant bliss, then leave them to it, as it doesn't cost anything to ignore such fools.

Thus my question to Trader333 was would he be prepared to do the same, and if not, then he shouldn't be asking others to do what he wont.

As for me knowing this, certainly not, that's why I asked the question. You know what they about assumptions being the mother of all..

Would I post my account details showing daily gains with sensitive information blocked out, well I certainly would not have in the past, and when I get my new office up and running, maybe I will, or maybe I wont. Its all food for thought.

Best
john

 

[Mr Fox]

Would hardly be fair if he was putting his balls on the line with realtime calls
''Long her NOW on KLAC at xx.xx''
and you'd be:
''Could be a scalpy long above 45, 46 and 47. Look for scalp sells below 34, 35 and 31 - all assuming time window is correct and teasezone bla bla bla bla...''

Whatever price does, you then claim that you were on the move. It's laughable.

How about I pay for you for a room with a voice feature like Grey1 used to use for your calls? Then there'd be no hiding place for you, lol

As for someone doubling a demo account!!!
Is that supposed to impress anyone??

Honestly.

How about that @Forexmospherian,

scholfield is actually prepared to put his money where his mouth is, and actually help you out by paying for a room with a voice service. Why not take him up on the offer, and silence all the none believing heathens once, and for all. You'll save vast amounts of time typing too.

Bravo scholfield.

Best
John.

 

[tar]

Deja vu !