divergence patterns

i notice you are from thailand, my father in laws lives in koi samui, went there last year and loved it.

I must say from my testing so far i think we can safely rely on 6/7 out of 10 winners........so i need to base my r/r around this...........I know this seems easy as obviously if im getting 6/7 right out of 10 every time all i need to do is keep r/r at minimum 1/1..............but its not as easy as that as im finding many times i would be stopped out or be letting a winner turn into a loser..........ok im working on an idea that as soon as i get the chance move my stop to break even and going to test that to see if i can get any improvement, also another idea i will test is to see if i can let the market or take the exhaustion from the indicator to tell me when i should exit as at present im setting a stop buy and sell with fixed profit targets.

by the way spoke to aj and mark last night from here on skype, great traders with great ideas, really helped me out with some ideas, thankyou
 
This just occured to me while staring at the ceiling.

One i was thinking of to protect myself was if market is rallying strongly, stay out.....what do u think?, just as i notice that when this happens diveregnce can stay for a long time without reversing.......

When the market is rallying (Long or Short) and the regular divergence just wont work ~ you keep getting stopped out, just take hidden divergence trades only as they come up. They are usually with the main trend :clap:

The ceiling could do with a lick of paint me thinks......
 
GBPUSD - does anyone ever look at monthly charts?? - there is a massive divergence on the monthly chart on both macd and rsi - seems like this could be the start of a meltdown of cable, after the current pullback is over.

any views?
 
This just occured to me while staring at the ceiling.

When the market is rallying (Long or Short) and the regular divergence just wont work ~ you keep getting stopped out, just take hidden divergence trades only as they come up. They are usually with the main trend :clap:
QUOTE]

still trying to figure out the rules of entry for a hidden divergence!!!
any help will be appreciated
 
still trying to figure out the rules of entry for a hidden divergence!!!
any help will be appreciated



Have a look here

http://www.babypips.com/school/divergence_trading.html
 
GBPUSD - does anyone ever look at monthly charts?? - there is a massive divergence on the monthly chart on both macd and rsi - seems like this could be the start of a meltdown of cable, after the current pullback is over.

any views?

My indicators don't show anything on the Monthly's but I can see a lovely one already started on the weeklies

Well done.
 
This just occured to me while staring at the ceiling.



When the market is rallying (Long or Short) and the regular divergence just wont work ~ you keep getting stopped out, just take hidden divergence trades only as they come up. They are usually with the main trend :clap:

The ceiling could do with a lick of paint me thinks......



there u go see, another rule i can now add................thank you, there is me looking for regular when this happens and thinking why it just keeps going, basically i was trying to pick a bottom but like you say safer to go with the hidden and with the trend, well at least until its clearly come to an end, thanks, this is now obvious to me but if you would not have mentioned it id still be trying to figure a way around it, you have save me some time.
 
there u go see, another rule i can now add................thank you, there is me looking for regular when this happens and thinking why it just keeps going, basically i was trying to pick a bottom but like you say safer to go with the hidden and with the trend, well at least until its clearly come to an end, thanks, this is now obvious to me but if you would not have mentioned it id still be trying to figure a way around it, you have save me some time.

Pleasure....
 
still trying to figure out the rules of entry for a hidden divergence!!!
any help will be appreciated



Have a look here

http://www.babypips.com/school/divergence_trading.html

The money quote is here:
".......Please keep in mind that I use divergence as an indicator, not a signal to enter a trade! It wouldn't be smart to trade basely solely on divergences as too many false signals are given. It’s not 100% foolproof, but when used as a setup condition and combined with additional confirmation tools, your trades have a high probability of winning with relatively low risk.

On the flip side, I think it is just as dangerous trade against this indicator. If you're unsure about which direction to trade, chill out on the sidelines.......".
 
The money quote is here:
".......Please keep in mind that I use divergence as an indicator, not a signal to enter a trade! It wouldn't be smart to trade basely solely on divergences as too many false signals are given. It’s not 100% foolproof, but when used as a setup condition and combined with additional confirmation tools, your trades have a high probability of winning with relatively low risk.

On the flip side, I think it is just as dangerous trade against this indicator. If you're unsure about which direction to trade, chill out on the sidelines.......".




as they say 'staying on the sidelines is taking a position in itself' , and yes ive been there itching, dying to put on a trade when you know that not everything confirms.

like rathcole excile says 'patience'
 
i've had a lot of pissing about today trying catch the upwards break while ES has been in decline. Kept having to reduce my BuyStop trigger point.
Triggered now, first 2 targets hit already, free runner now on 3rd lot.
What's nice is that it was a twin-trade - my own breakout play coupled with a divergence play :)

but you're right Jayjay, I had to be patient to get it ....
 
i've had a lot of pissing about today trying catch some bloody fish and the upwards break while ES has been in decline. Kept having to reduce my waist measurement and BuyStop trigger point. What am I on about ??
Triggered now, first 2 targets hit already, free chips for everyone now on 3rd lot.
What's nice is that it was a twin-turbo Austin Allegro - my own breakout play coupled with a divergence play-on-words :)

but you're right Jayjay, I had to be a patient in a bl**dy mental hospital to get it ....

Good post Garry
 
yes they work thats for sure, but its just the planning and money management, i must get this right.

At present i only trade er2, and i only start my trading at 2.40pm every day..........but looking to possibly start trading the dax or ftse but i just love the er2 i gotta admit.

I agree. I trade it too. The best American Indicie in my opinion !
 
This just occured to me while staring at the ceiling.



When the market is rallying (Long or Short) and the regular divergence just wont work ~ you keep getting stopped out, just take hidden divergence trades only as they come up. They are usually with the main trend :clap:

The ceiling could do with a lick of paint me thinks......

Agree and Disagree Nick. IF you take divergence off the larger t/f and don't see it on your trigger t/f I have found you can get boned. However, I have also found that if you use multiple T/F's the risk of this happening is a little smaller. I look for divergence to occur across all 3 t/f's before I enter a trade against the trend and will exit at the first sign of hidden divergence.

Generally once all 3 t/f start to diverge you may get another pop up/down but you should grab some nice points out of it. I should also add that stops are kept extremely tight. Just below/above relative high on 30 tick chart. On Ftse this is no more that 5 points (MAX)

With regards to support and resistance, I don't look at that either. IF I see a setup I take it regardless of trendlines, Support, Resistance, Pivots etc etc. :devilish:

I like to keep the execution as simple as possible. The only thing I look at is the divergence (strength of). I look at NOTHING ELSE. So my way of squaring this circle is that if I just concentrate my attention on Divergance and keep an eye on the 30tick to nail the entry that should keep me one step ahead. I have avoided taking positions because of S&R etc etc and to my shock/horror the bugger has paid out. There have been a few that haven't and I would have lost money on. However, it seems that the majority taken around these levels have given me my points target or a break even trade.

I look at a break even trade as a free opportunity to make money.

The only levels I keep my eye on are the price levels for my divergence setup. I think it is important to highlight the point IF TRADING AGAINST THE LARGER TREND KEEP AN EYE ON HIDDEN DIVERGENCE. I have been caught and taken out for flat a good few times where I have tried to hold on for a couple more points against raging hidden divergence. I find that with the hidden divergance you can get a nasty spike move against you. These moves develop much FASTER than regular divergance moves IMO.

Furthermore just because the trend on YOUR highest timeframe is up that doesn't mean the trend is up. You should always keep an eye for hidden divergence on the highest t/f that way you're putting the odds in your favour of staying out of trouble.

Lastly before anyone falls asleep ! I find this is ALL about the screen time and practice and obviously about the application of logic. The more screen time you get the better you will become at spotting setups. When I first started looking at this I found it particuarly tricky. I would always get caught out by the levels especially on Hidden Divergence (Ask Brutusdog :)) Hit a hidden divergence when the high/low had broken and end up getting boned.

I agree with Nick that the best place to start to learn about divergence is BABY PIPS. IT explains all with examples VERY SIMPLY. Like anything HARD WORK and extreme determination plus some losses ! are required to master these setups. But once you do (and I am no way near a master yet) you will feel really comfortable with trading them and feel one step ahead of the market.

One last thing...don't get caught up on indicator settings and time frames. One man's meat is another man's poison. THEY ALL WORK....Yes they do. There are no "optimum" or "holy grail" settings. The optimum settings will be DOES THIS WORK FOR ME ? If you answer YES..then you have found YOUR HOLY GRAIL setup. Spend more time looking for and practising with divergence than twatting around with indicators and t/f. Trust me from someone who wasted a great deal of time searching for the HOLY GRAIL indicator !! You will progress MUCH FASTER !
 
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The Danger that is Hidden Divergence.....

I was in a trade this morning and whilst the trade netted me a measly 4 points it gave a great example of the kind of hidden divergence I was posting about earlier.

Great strong regular divergence short trade. Got in to it and to my horror saw Hidden Divergence coming through, after checking a higher t/f to the timeframes I use as standard. I saw that the market did indeed look very strong and getting out was probably a good idea with such a strong signal that it was about to go long.

I have attached the chart below. To me this was a great short trade, just under the daily pivot, strong divergence across 2 time frames. However, it didn't pan out like that and the signal came through to give enough time to get out.
 

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What is hidden divergence ? If this has already been explained then I apologise for asking and please just point me in the right direction where to find it.


Paul
 
Leading?

I agree they are an indictor but a 'leading' one? Pivots are guide levels are to be treated as such.
In my experience they need to be confirmed if a more accurate system of trading is to be followed.
However, if it works, do not fix it!
Regards.
George
I still regard them as a *Leading Indicator* though
 
Hidden

Paul,
Divergence is not hidden, it is only the S&R levels that are hidden.
George
What is hidden divergence ? If this has already been explained then I apologise for asking and please just point me in the right direction where to find it.


Paul
 
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