Direction is everything.

[Splitlink]

Re: A Study in Ironic Entropy in Bulletin Board Thread Titles

For any trading strategy where instruments are bought/sold for an anticipated outright directional advantage, a means of assessing the likely directional bias is not only sensible, it’s vital. When you’ve got it right, you have the confidence to both initiate your position and utilise the on-going feedback necessary to manage your position sensibly. When you get it wrong, it’s even more important that you have a directional bias. The getting it wrong bit is where your money management and risk management come into play and you limit your downside. It doesn’t mean you’re assessment is wrong – yet. It may just mean your timing was off.

This is the post that I wished I could have written. Thanks a lot. I hope that it does not get lost in the archives of forgotten threads so that newcomers will read it.

 

[MrGecko]

Wasn't Bramble going to write a book?

The reason I mention it is that he has made this post twice... perhaps he has written it elsewhere other than the first post and done a "copy -> paste" job?

(don't get me wrong, it's a great post)

 

[Shakone]

Wasn't Bramble going to write a book?

The reason I mention it is that he has made this post twice... perhaps he has written it elsewhere other than the first post and done a "copy -> paste" job?

(don't get me wrong, it's a great post)

I hope he is writing a book on trading. Would be nice to have a copy. But I thought I read once that he had given up on the idea because of editors interfering or something.

 

[HowardCohodas]

I hope he is writing a book on trading. Would be nice to have a copy. But I thought I read once that he had given up on the idea because of editors interfering or something.

That's the beauty of self-publishing. You have to blame yourself for editor interference and editing delays.

I resemble that remark! :-0

 

[TheBramble]

I hope he is writing a book on trading. Would be nice to have a copy. But I thought I read once that he had given up on the idea because of editors interfering or something.

Correct. There is a world of difference between writing for yourself and writing for a publishing house.

Choosing when to write, what to write about, how to write about it and the amount to write are aspects of the craft which I didn't realise were more important to me than any desire to get my stuff out into the wider traders space.

If you enjoy playing golf; don't imagine you'll enjoy running a golf store.

 

[TheBramble]

Wasn't Bramble going to write a book?

The reason I mention it is that he has made this post twice... perhaps he has written it elsewhere other than the first post and done a "copy -> paste" job?

(don't get me wrong, it's a great post)

It's only been posted the once MrG.

 

[TheBramble]

That's the beauty of self-publishing.

Never needed to consider that option, but wouldn’t have done so in any event. Although I’ve seen some self-published material that has been worthwhile and while my now somewhat less naive view of professional publishing suggests that it isn’t always the best that successfully makes it through the professional publishing process (ahem…) I still believe the eye of a professional editor and the marketing resources of a bona fide publishing house offer the best odds generally of worthwhile material reaching an appropriate audience.

Self-publishing seems to require an extremely well developed sense of ego and a flair (or perhaps just lack of embarrassment) for blatant self-publicity at every opportunity. Skills that I lack and am in no desperate hurry to acquire. If I can be forgiven a racial stereotype, the Brits tend not to blow their own trumpets too much. Although a Brit by birth rather than by nature, it is still one of my few inherited racial traits to hide my very considerable light under many a bushel.

 

[TheBramble]

Direction is Impossible

Do you see what I mean MrGecko?

You can only have entropy where there was order to begin with.

Direction is a result of persistence.

 

[MrGecko]

I can't see anything TheBramble, I'm blinded by the light emanating from underneath all these f*****g bushels.

 

[HowardCohodas]

If I can be forgiven a racial stereotype, the Brits tend not to blow their own trumpets too much. Although a Brit by birth rather than by nature, it is still one of my few inherited racial traits to hide my very considerable light under many a bushel.

When I was younger I felt much the same as you although culturally I'm clearly a Yank. However, the older I get the less I care about personal embarrassment. I'm more aware of the limited time I have left.

Also, as is probably clear from my posts about trading strategy, I have control issues.

 

[amit.s]

You just put your finger right on it. What's the point of having stops that are almost certain to be stopped? Haven't you ever placed a trade to see it go into profit, only to end in a loss? This is because the stops are too close and the Mr Market goes up and down clearing the whole lot out.

Now, if you put your stops farther , then, you have the direction wrong but you hope that it will correct. So you are between a rock and a hard place. Where the market takes out close stops is the "noise" area. That is acceptable and you should not put a stop there because it will go, nine times out of ten. If it goes outside of the "noise" then the direction is wrong and the trade is void.

This may sound daft but it's the way I see it.

But you have to have some kind of stop- right? You could have been sure the bund was overpriced in May last year but no way you could have held that- there must be a point where you need to get out and take control again.

 

[Hilarymannah]

when you talk of noise as if the market is just moving randomly,...you obviouly don't know how to read the market!
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