chindl
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The level of resistance has changed and we seem to have sellers at 11000 now rather than buyers. It is, though only one day. Looking at the EOD charts there was a nice increase in volume on the punch down today on the daily and the ADX is rising up through 30. Also, the latest candle is almost an inverted hammer, but the body is just a little too big to be an inverted hammer, but this could be a good R level for the day ahead at 080. Finally, my bollinger band is showing a sell, as it has now closed outside of the bands on consecutive sessions.
What we could have is a little divergence on the SL and the histogram if prices do not follow through for the remainder of this week and this could be the short term pull back that Elefteros is hoping for. We certainly have a news based bullish indicator that could do that, but I don't necessarily feel that this news will move the Dow from its' current momentum too much, it may move energies and metals lower, but I think the Dow's main concern is on the Feds next move and they're not looking outside of the US for that at the moment. Of course though, lower oil and metals may well ease inflationary fears and the fed may have the answer handed to them on a plate so as to pass on an increase in June, which I think may well be the case anyway. It would seem that Ben's pre meditated comments to financiers earlier in the week have had the desired effects on the commodity markets and prices seem to be falling across the board there.
Here's the Dow charts. The weekly also shows some potential divergence on the fast MACD (SL), but nowhere near the divergence offered between the Dec highs and the recent highs.
All the best
Chris
PS - sorry for any tpos, speed tyoed today as lots to do at work.
What we could have is a little divergence on the SL and the histogram if prices do not follow through for the remainder of this week and this could be the short term pull back that Elefteros is hoping for. We certainly have a news based bullish indicator that could do that, but I don't necessarily feel that this news will move the Dow from its' current momentum too much, it may move energies and metals lower, but I think the Dow's main concern is on the Feds next move and they're not looking outside of the US for that at the moment. Of course though, lower oil and metals may well ease inflationary fears and the fed may have the answer handed to them on a plate so as to pass on an increase in June, which I think may well be the case anyway. It would seem that Ben's pre meditated comments to financiers earlier in the week have had the desired effects on the commodity markets and prices seem to be falling across the board there.
Here's the Dow charts. The weekly also shows some potential divergence on the fast MACD (SL), but nowhere near the divergence offered between the Dec highs and the recent highs.
All the best
Chris
PS - sorry for any tpos, speed tyoed today as lots to do at work.
chindl
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http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={21C9D7B1-98C0-4DE2%
And Jobless claims down a surprising 35K today, more bullish news into the mixture.
And Jobless claims down a surprising 35K today, more bullish news into the mixture.
Slapshot
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I've been following this thread for a while now and have really learnt a great deal from it, some cracking posts. So, I thought I'd add my two penneth worth.
I've been trading the system Chartman described ages ago relating to the 100ema/CCI & RSI. The attached chart shows the Dow as it is currently, once the 100ema was breached it's down down down, failure to breach it at 16:05-10 ish again. Following the system rules points galore on offer.
As it type there has been failure to breach the 100ema again, although the decline is not so forthcoming. Possibly due to the fact we're approaching lunchtime in the US. The next hour or so will be crucial to the outcome of the day.
Incidentally the FTSE & DAX (probably others also) all follow suit when the US is moving strongly, almost the to point of copying it.
Sun's out, I'm off for a beer.
I've been trading the system Chartman described ages ago relating to the 100ema/CCI & RSI. The attached chart shows the Dow as it is currently, once the 100ema was breached it's down down down, failure to breach it at 16:05-10 ish again. Following the system rules points galore on offer.
As it type there has been failure to breach the 100ema again, although the decline is not so forthcoming. Possibly due to the fact we're approaching lunchtime in the US. The next hour or so will be crucial to the outcome of the day.
Incidentally the FTSE & DAX (probably others also) all follow suit when the US is moving strongly, almost the to point of copying it.
Sun's out, I'm off for a beer.
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The DOW's chart looks a bit V-shaped to me. Is it a victory sign for the bull over the bears. Possibly. The retracement has been around 60 per cent of the gains from last October and 30 min chart looks like a bowl or rounded bottom. This rally might be here to stay at least for a while.
Vaco
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What a day, when i sais yesterday that i thought today was gonna be volatile i never imagined what i came home to today 
However i learnt a valuable lesson today never place orders early in the morning when your feeling sick and are late for work.
To cut a long story short i messed up my stop orders and escaped up on the day through sheer dumb luck.
Thats 3 strikes for dumb luck whilst i've been posting on this thread i beter be carefall as may luck may just be out.
As for now short on the close with a sl at 10980.
Good luck all and welcome slapshot
However i learnt a valuable lesson today
never place orders early in the morning when your feeling sick and are late for work.To cut a long story short i messed up my stop orders and escaped up on the day through sheer dumb luck.
Thats 3 strikes for dumb luck whilst i've been posting on this thread i beter be carefall as may luck may just be out.
As for now short on the close with a sl at 10980.
Good luck all and welcome slapshot
By the way, I plan to learn and take all the exams of the Chartered Market Technician programme - https://www.mta.org/eweb/DynamicPage.aspx?webcode=CMT Program. At least it will force me to have structured reading.
Elefteros said:...
However i learnt a valuable lesson today
A lesson well learnt, Elefteros.
I now do not day trade when I can't afford to give the market full attention or I am not my best self.
I have to say I am clueless about where the market's going to go next. And am talking about weekly trends here.
Cheers,
Hung
Slapshot
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Evening all,
Cheers Hung, the beers were very cold
I'm quite fortunate in being able to trade at work and normally concentrate on the DAX for the most, however when time permits, or should I say, when the wife permits I try to trade the DOW.
I've been learning the system I mentioned earlier for a while now and getting more confident with it. On days like today though it really shows it's merits. The key is discipline, not to think to much about the trade, follow the rules an let the chart tell you what's going on. A lot easier said than done.
Anyway here's the chart for today:
First entry at 15:45 - short. Clear bounce down off th 100ema at 16:10 which took us all the way down to the 10750 area. With positive divergance showing on the CCI and RSI and a 3 higher lows showing on both indicators that was the signal to get out. Exiting around this area could have netted 130-150 points.
True to form the bounce appeared and took us straight back up to the 100ema and over lunchtime dilly dallied around that area. The signals of higher highs and higher lows were an indication of what was to come. I'm always very careful around this time.
At 18:30 a new high was made 10840+ and and long from here, steady rise followed with resistance/support switch & a new high at 19:35ish - 10900, this would have been a perfectly acceptable exit and another 60odd points.
Confirmation of the uptrend came at 19:58 with the bounce off the 100ema up to the 10950 area where the falling 3 peak negative divergance in both the CCI & RSI would have signalled an exit at around 20:45 and another 80 points or thereabouts.
Today was a good day using this system. It has been around for a while and I've found it very helpful when trading the indicies. I've also used it on the Dax and works well there too. If you want to learn more about it follow this link:
http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/day-trading-the-dow-jones/
In regard to where the Dow goes from here. I think it's fair to say we're due a bounce and the return from the 10750 area today was quite clear to see. Anything's possible though, and if there's a lesson I've learnt the hard way is not to try and guess the direction. The market will go where it wants to when it wants.
I hope everyone had a good day.
Laters
Slaps
Cheers Hung, the beers were very cold
I'm quite fortunate in being able to trade at work and normally concentrate on the DAX for the most, however when time permits, or should I say, when the wife permits I try to trade the DOW.
I've been learning the system I mentioned earlier for a while now and getting more confident with it. On days like today though it really shows it's merits. The key is discipline, not to think to much about the trade, follow the rules an let the chart tell you what's going on. A lot easier said than done.
Anyway here's the chart for today:
First entry at 15:45 - short. Clear bounce down off th 100ema at 16:10 which took us all the way down to the 10750 area. With positive divergance showing on the CCI and RSI and a 3 higher lows showing on both indicators that was the signal to get out. Exiting around this area could have netted 130-150 points.
True to form the bounce appeared and took us straight back up to the 100ema and over lunchtime dilly dallied around that area. The signals of higher highs and higher lows were an indication of what was to come. I'm always very careful around this time.
At 18:30 a new high was made 10840+ and and long from here, steady rise followed with resistance/support switch & a new high at 19:35ish - 10900, this would have been a perfectly acceptable exit and another 60odd points.
Confirmation of the uptrend came at 19:58 with the bounce off the 100ema up to the 10950 area where the falling 3 peak negative divergance in both the CCI & RSI would have signalled an exit at around 20:45 and another 80 points or thereabouts.
Today was a good day using this system. It has been around for a while and I've found it very helpful when trading the indicies. I've also used it on the Dax and works well there too. If you want to learn more about it follow this link:
http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/day-trading-the-dow-jones/
In regard to where the Dow goes from here. I think it's fair to say we're due a bounce and the return from the 10750 area today was quite clear to see. Anything's possible though, and if there's a lesson I've learnt the hard way is not to try and guess the direction. The market will go where it wants to when it wants.
I hope everyone had a good day.
Laters
Slaps
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Vaco
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Slapshot said:Evening all,
Cheers Hung, the beers were very cold
In regard to where the Dow goes from here. I think it's fair to say we're due a bounce and the return from the 10750 area today was quite clear to see. Anything's possible though, and if there's a lesson I've learnt the hard way is not to try and guess the direction. The market will go where it wants to when it wants.
I hope everyone had a good day.
Laters
Slaps
Slaps nice post it shows well the benefits of the sytem, would be nice if you also put up a chart in the future of the trades that dont work out
As for not trying to guess which way the markets going, thats all any of us do every day we just use different tools to help us see, systems to stop us overtrading and money management for when it all goes wrong
The system you use helped you guess right yesterday but its still a guess your system is not a holy grail and it cant c into the future so it just does the guessing and you do the execution.
chindl
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Hey chaps - not gonna be around for the remainder of the day, got the day off and I'm off out on me bike up the South Downs then will be watching the footie this evening so it's a long weekend for me.
Major drawdown on the Asian markets last night once again. Probably best on the sidelines today.
Major drawdown on the Asian markets last night once again. Probably best on the sidelines today.
Slapshot
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Elefteros said:Slaps nice post it shows well the benefits of the sytem, would be nice if you also put up a chart in the future of the trades that dont work out
No problem. Time permitting.
Elefteros said:As for not trying to guess which way the markets going, thats all any of us do every day we just use different tools to help us see, systems to stop us overtrading and money management for when it all goes wrong
Perhaps I should have made it clear in my post. I was refering to the longer term picture regarding the Dow, in response to some of the previous posts. I only day trade and don't hold overnight positions + longer, due to the fact I've suffered when trading that way. I'm happier with day trading, employing tight stops and minimizing the losses.
Elefteros said:
I've not said it is the holy grail, nor would I because there is no such thing (believe me I've spent time looking). Yes it has it's downsides but by learning the system and looking out for patterns that have repeated themselves time & time again the better the chances of being right.
There are a number of threads still on this site detailing all different patterns and patterns within patterns that indicate a move. Learning them all takes a lot of time, the trick is spotting them as they're unfolding. I'll have a search and post them later.
As I'm writing, I'm trading the Dax. Have gone short at 5655 as the 100ema is providing resistance. Looks like it may struggle though.
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Slapshot
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Gotta be quick due to work commitments. Have a look through the US Indicies board and the Weekly Dow posts by Chartman. loads and loads of useful stuff in there.
Dax is still floating around the 100ema and nothing of interest to note. Stop set 20 points above the 100ema.
Good luck everyone today
Dax is still floating around the 100ema and nothing of interest to note. Stop set 20 points above the 100ema.
Good luck everyone today
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